저자: DryenPence · 외국인
요약 보기
연준은 보험성 인하를 이어갈 가능성이 높고 10월·12월에도 0.25%p 인하 전망. 재정·통화 부양 잔존과 감세·관세 정책의 순부양으로 경기침체 가능성은 낮다고 봄. 2026년까지 실적 사상 최고치 전망에 맞춰 시장도 사상 최고치 갈 것으로 강세 유지, 일부 변동성은 정상. 브로드컴은 맞춤형 칩 지배력으로 장기 보유 중. TSMC·ASML은 AI 공급망의 병목으로 필수적. AI가 초급 대졸자 고용을 잠식하며 실업률에 영향 줄 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
There he is. Dryen Pence, chief investment officer, Pence Capital Management. I haven't seen you in a while. Hope you're doing and feeling great, particularly since we saw, I think, 32 record closes for the S&P 500 this year. Um, what say you about what the Fed may do next? What does that mean for the market?
Sure. with regard to the Fed and by well by the way it's great to see you again and I've missed you but uh I think that I think the key point is is that because we don't have some of the data we are wondering what's going on we look into these things I think the Fed is probably more likely than not going to continue on their idea of insurance cuts the cut in September was an insurance cut they'll probably cut in October maybe we'll have data and things open by then they'll make a decision in December but we think that that given everything that's going on the Fed's going to continue to do quarter point cuts.
So you can see one or two more uh in this year and a lot of it's just based on rather being safe than sorry at this moment. Understood. So um you think the Fed cuts and are you still feeling bullish because the bull market um is now three years in on October 22nd I think it is but um that will be three years and do we get a fourth year of a bull market?
I think we do. Uh we're still bullish on this market because the the big underlying theme is we still have a lot of the CO stimulus working its way through the economy, a multiplier effect. We now have a tax and tariff policy that is net stimulus in our view. We have a Fed lowering interest rates uh at a time when we're not in a recession.
Uh so it's kind of insurance cuts into growth. So normally when you see that, you see the market actually do exceedingly well. So, we're positive going into 2026 just because earnings, you know, earnings are at an all-time high. The market's at an all-time high. And you take a look at 2026, earnings are projected to be at an all-time high.
So, we think the market's going to be at an all-time high. You're going to have some volatility. We see that from time to time, but that's normal. Uh, but we're we're definitely positive going into 2026. Why aren't people talking about recession? I I think they they talk about recession because it's almost they're trying to play pyon here.
It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Oh, we haven't had one in a while. We haven't had one in a while. We haven't had one in a while, so we're supposed to have one. But the fundamental issue is that people are forgetting. We put $5.4 trillion worth of stimulus into this economy 5 years ago at COVID. That's more money than we put in all of World War II.
And the World War II stimulus sustained the economy all the way through like to 74 on a multiplier effect. So that stimulus hasn't gone away. So we have this base of stimulus in the economy and liquidity in the economy that's continuing to push us forward. Uh we're only 5 years out. So I think we probably have another one or two years uh to go before that dissipates.
And we have policy that seems to be expansive uh against that. So it's very hard to see a recession anytime soon. You're a buyer of chips on the dips. I like that. That's catchy. Um, I always say Mag Seven really should be Mag 8. A lot of folks really think Broadcom um should be in the Mag Seven. Broadcom is a name that you like a lot.
Tell me why. Well, absolutely. We love Broadcom in terms of for a very long period of time it's been in our portfolios. We like the company because it's really the the picks and shovels, the the the fundamentals of a lot of the a lot of the technology that goes into this. And when you take a look at at all of the chips that they do, they really dominate the custom design chips for companies that need that need to move forward.
Nvidia kind of dominates the the, you know, GPU space. Broadcom dominates the space where companies are needing a chip that is specified to a specific need, things that are going to increase their labor productivity, and they they pretty much dominate that market. So you had this continual industrial need for what Broadcom has and uh we think that that's got very very long legs.
All right. I know you have Taiwan Semi and ASML as well. Tell me about those names, why you like them. Sure. If you think of if you think of Nvidia as the choke point to AI, TSMC is the choke point to Nvidia and ASML is the choke point to TSMC. All these companies are absolutely necessary if we're moving forward with this continued expansion of the infrastructure of of AI.
And when you take a look at TSMC, the the amount of capex that's going into this companies, they account for like onethird of the cost of goods sales uh of cost goods sold rather of both Nvidia and AMD. So TSMC is definitely integrated in this. They're dominant in this. You see all these buildings being built and hyperscalers.
It's it's it's a TSMC chip in most of them. And then for TSMC to be able to do what it's got to do, you have to have ASML because ASML has a pretty much monopoly on the extreme ultra ultra violet light lithography machines that create these very very specified chips that have the capacity to do all the things that we're asking AI to do.
So if you look at this supply chain of the satisfaction of this demand, you have three very essential companies and each of those have to play play along with each other. Uh ASML's is is essential to TSMC. TSMC is essential to Nvidia. Then you look at Broadcom which is is there for the rest of the uh of the enterprise and things that they have to do.
So all of these companies have tremendous demand uh for what they do going forward. And so even in a market that could get a little frothy, even in a market that could get a little ahead of itself in in in the AI world, the fundamentals beneath all of that are supporting these three companies exceedingly well.
I have to presume you think they're going up, I don't know, at least 20% in the next year or two or three. Is that right? I mean, I want to ask you about the supply chain and jobs. So just I mean the up arrow here is evident to you 10 20 30%. Is that fair? I I think if earning if earnings are going to grow that if earnings are going to grow that fast then the market's going to grow that fast.
So I think that we we're projecting earnings doing exceedingly well. And I I I don't think that that's unreasonable. Hard to put a hard number on it, but I think that you you look at if earnings are going to grow that fast and the pricing is going to grow that fast and and we see that expansion going forth.
and and you were talking about are you worried about jobs? I mean, we know that the AI supply chain really should help productivity and it's like dominoes as you said, ASML to Taiwan Semi to Nvidia. Um, they're connected. Where does it fit in with the labor picture? Are you worried about the labor picture?
How AI changes it? Exactly. So, here's where it's changing it right now. you have about 5% more unemployment in uh college educated graduates than you do anywhere else. So this the labor situation is getting distorted. And really what it comes down to is a company's going great, I need to hire somebody, but before I go out and hire an intern or before I go out and hire a a entrance employee, why don't I see if AI can do it?
if if AI can do that particular job first and better and cheaper, then I can put off employing a college graduate or or entry- level employee. So, I think we're in this discovery mechanism of just how effective AI can be in labor productivity and it's going to hit uh the employment of of entry- level people and and that's what we're seeing.
And so it's it's tough to be a college grad right now uh because you're not competing against other college grads, you're competing against AI and uh and that's that's difficult, but I think that over time that's going to sort itself out a little bit. But uh but I think that that's that's the distortion that we see not in the older levels or in the different skill levels, but in the entry level positions.
AI is going to affect the unemployment rate. Dryen Pence, chief investment officer, Pence Capital Management. Great to see you. really appreciate it. Thank you.
Comments 0