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foreign markets are of course about four or five percent away from all-time highs uh will we get to all-time highs can the market continue to perform like it has been from the lows which were made in the end of March that's the question and who better to answer some of this than Ram the Agarwal chairman and co-founder moti Los Val Financial Services uh he's with us here in our Studios to boot great to have you with us here good morning thank you very much sir for making detail uh what is your sense we are in the midst of the earnings season yeah and you're a very close Watcher of earnings and you've always believed that earnings will dictate eventually where stock prices go so what's your reading of what we've seen so far from the fourth quarter earnings yeah so fourth quarter we are seeing some positive surprises uh in terms of earnings like Nestle as a uh the same marathi's number or uh and all so they were kind of a bright spots uh Banks across the board like private as well as public so I think in my 30 40 years care this is the best what you call banking system across like whether it is a private and public you have very robust banking system apart from profit growth and name growth and all that lowest credit cost and all just that every bank is capitalized government doesn't have to give any uh submission or support Capital support to any of the banking systems so I think it is really ready to fund the Indian economics growth so that's one one good thing I see and uh last year could have been a very good year but for the Ukraine war and all the inflationary and logistic dislocation things like that but now I think that seems to be subsiding I I've visited a lot of companies and all of them are saying that uh cost is definitely on the decline uh it may not be in the Q4 this quarter that they will get to see the benefit of that but q1 Q2 should be much better because all those high cost inventory they'll all get consumed in this quarter and next quarter onwards you'll see the margin sex bonding so I think earnings momentum is going to build slowly from here onwards uh economy is likely to grow at any better than six to seven percent with four five percent inflation another brightest spot in the economy which is developing is the stronger rupee if you see the rupee today I don't know how much is trading yesterday it was 81 75 or 77 so continuously there is a strength of rupee current account deficit is slumped in the Q4 is it one quarter phenomena or it is going to be repeating because the kind of services board we saw in last four quarters does it is it going to continue at that pace you know even at 50 70 percent I think uh we are in a very interesting turning point of Indian economy by chance our current account deficit comes to about one percent or so which can be funded very easily and so rupee dollar where we keep losing three four percent every year which again has huge implications everywhere interest rate inflation I think there we might get some relief I mean even if three four percent decline comes down to a percentage or so because then RBI will try to build the reserve about a trillion two trillion whatever so I think we are in a very good Swedish spot uh my senses what is acceleration to you many uh have said that there will be a deceleration the continent after third quarter earning so lots of downgrades but we will go through this process of more downgrades this year because the world is slowing down and some of it will show up here as well yeah but Indian economy has its own kind of momentum the government has set its own momentum of six seven percent is the fastest growing economy so in that context see if you look at the even Q till Q3 first three quarters the Top Lane both have copyrights were like 15 16 it's just that cost inflation just couldn't pass and hence the earnings both are very muted Q4 is looking much better uh if you look at the aggregate numbers so my sense is going forward from here we are going to see that at least 15 15 17 across the board Nifty earnings growth uh there will be some spots of weakness I believe some portion of rural economy there the low end discretionary spent is still pretty weak but that always will be there some reason or other but I think across the board earnings once the earning momentums pick up then you know the retail Behavior fi behavior and and if you see longer term see one is one is that we are focused on next four quarters and things like that but you look at five ten years this only this is the only large economy where you can save five to seven percent sustained growth for 10 years which economy you can say I mean China has done what it has done but from here onwards China growth history Still Remains intact but the stock market story is gone nowhere so after us it's only India where you have opportunity of going going from three and a half trillion to seven trillion and if the rupee doesn't depreciate in next five seven years then you can achieve that in maybe five six years you know so you could be staring at 2003 at least you invest for six seven years which is going economy going from three and a half to seven trillion I mean you and me cannot imagine how how India will look in 2030.
so the long-term picture for India is very bright but just talking about say the next 12 months do you think banks will be out performers or Market performers because everyone's expecting good numbers so in a way it's priced in it's already outperformed and then there is a risk of nymphs Contracting so can Banks generate that Alpha which they did in the last uh you know 12 months going ahead I would think it will not be huge Alpha but uh I think because see the LA there are two largest segment of the market one is the uh this banking second is it these two make up almost like 45 50 of the market yes if it in any case is slow down so I don't expect it to be in a terrific shape though in U.S it is doing very well but in India because of their own earnings slow down I think Rd will it will concentrate it in this year so then only thing left is the banking so and banking earnings are going to be very good in this year I I don't yeah I mean there are there are thought talks about nemex uh Contracting maybe 10 webs 20 babes or things like that but it's still the top line goes will be pretty good and operating leverage will also come so my sense is that the current year should be good year for banking as a whole but I don't know how big will be the outperformance market performing yes all right uh you know so banks are continue to do well on the on their results what about it that's been the big disappointment right that's the other smaller pillar but that's disappointed very good quality companies but if you are buying like you said invest for a little longer duration someone who's Investing For Five Years or good time to start nibbling in right now yeah clearly valuations are corrected the good time to buy I see it story of India is going to be the story of India in a sense that we are going to write this and uh it is going to come back and come back with wenginess in the sense that uh the growth rate which is which might come down from said 12 13 to maybe uh High single digits seven eight percent ten percent so then you know something will change you know when the U.S economy World economy comes out of shell and they want to again uh build up investing in their ID and all again we'll get orders so good time to start dipping into it yeah I mean you can go stock by stock but you have time in the sense that you can start building up your portfolio on it also preference between mid and large I.T companies uh I think large mid caps who qualifies under that yeah like LTI types you know which are in two three billion dollar kind of a thing yeah so they don't suffer from the lack of scale and they also don't suffer from the large scale that's very well put you know so it and banking is what we've spoken about services but what about Third Leg manufacturing and that's the question that we'll put around we have to take a quick commercial break here we're back with that in just a bit
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