저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 연준의 추가 금리 인상 가능성과 PCE 근원 인플레이션의 끈적임을 감안하면 시장의 '금리 인상 종료' 기대는 성급할 수 있으며, 이번 영상에서는 특정 종목 매매 권유보다 거시 지표 해석에 초점을 맞춤. [연준·금리] 파월 의장이 25bp 추가 인상(연방기금금리 2001년 이후 최고 수준)을 단행했고, 9월 또는 11월에 한 차례 더 인상할 가능성을 열어둠. 시장은 이번이 마지막 인상으로 보고 있으나 진행자들은 파월의 발언이 1년 가까이 일관되었다는 점에서 놀라운 반응이 이해되지 않는다고 평가. [인플레이션] 헤드라인 CPI는 정점(9%)에서 크게 내려왔지만, 파월이 선호하는 PCE 근원(식품·에너지 제외) 지표는 4%대에서 4.1%로 완만히 둔화됐을 뿐 여전히 헤드라인보다 높음. 진행자는 '2%에 가까워질수록 마지막 구간 둔화가 어려워 인플레이션 둔화가 예상보다 길어질 수 있다'고 전망. [식품·에너지·서비스] 식품·에너지는 여전히 가계에 영향이 크며, USDA는 2023년 식품 가격이 5.8% 오를 것으로 전망. 주거 외 서비스 부문의 임금 상승 압력도 지속 중. [경기] 2분기 GDP 성장률이 예상(약 2%)을 웃도는 2.4%로 발표되어 미국 경제는 여전히 성장 중이라고 평가. [종목·차트] 에너지 섹터 ETF(XLE)는 과거 저항 레벨에 재접근 중이며, 미국 달러 약세는 달러 표시 원자재에 우호적이라는 언급. 금융 섹터 ETF(XLF)는 지방은행 파산 사태 이후 이전 수준을 거의 회복. S&P500(SPY)은 20일선을 이탈하지 않고 9일선을 지지하며 상승 흐름 유지 중이나, 약세 장악형 캔들 패턴은 경제 지표에 영향이 없다며 신뢰도가 낮다고 평가. [출연자 전망] 진행자 Dylan은 인플레이션 둔화가 생각보다 길어질 수 있다고 봄. 기술적 약세 신호에는 회의적이나 장기 약세 편향은 유지 중이라고 언급.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to the two super guys trade Sox I'm Dylan and I'm Vinnie and today we're talking about the major news as far as economic indicators that came out this week we're talking about what they may mean for the stock market and look at the charts real quick and times getting an idea of where we are in the cycle and whether or not we should do anything stupid right now we have a lot of crap to actually have this week we already did a separate video talking about Google and not on some major Tech cap like stocks earnings but we also had the Federal Reserve met my man Jay Powell came out and slammed us another quarter percent man another goddamn 25 basis points this is the highest the FED funds rate has been since 2001.
that's nuts no and well I mean yes but necessary because we printed I can't remember the number a gross amount of money um Thirty forty percent something like that and he he left the door open to either September or November another rate hike probably the last one um the funny thing is is you read all the analysts and economists who are like oh my God he raised it and it's the same every month and he's he hasn't changed his story for like a year I don't get it I don't understand why there's a surprise it's like well it makes me lose faith in that completely immediately after this they're saying this is the last one is is what the market is basically saying right now it's like oh we're done but he's saying like ah we'll take it meeting my meeting I'm gonna make a little point about that towards the end of the video by showing you a little chart of kind of like what I think is going to be the struggle going forward with inflation we have seen it come down a lot you know nine percent uh it was was the peak for CPI it's moderated down a little bit so we're heading the right direction however Powell has talked about how pces is a better guide that also came out this week so we're going to look at that number um but as far as we had another major economic data point come out we had Q2 GDP gross domestic product you know how healthy is the American economy and we came out ahead of expectation you know they were only looking for about two percent we came like 2.4 became in pretty hot as far as the actual economic output so the economy's still growing you know you see this on a functional basis every time I go shopping with my wife and Jesus Christ is like 800 million people out there lining up to buy the same piece of crap every freaking store we go into I've ever been to Marshalls or TJ Maxx because holy crap Target still Target I'm actually Target's getting more and more attractive I can't run by it yeah just saying okay um we can do a separate video on that one again because I guess they have some inventory issues but overall American economy is still looking pretty well uh so pce this is Powell's go-to inflation Gates personal consumption expenditure and we we had the most recent kind of data drop to come out here for June 2023.
three percent comparison right from a year ago that seems like not too far off from the two percent that they want but it started to lie because the headline number has come down a lot whereas course pce which is the stuff that you really need on a monthly basis has been remained at an elevated level if you actually look at that chart with looking at this so pce excluding food and energy 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 or 4.1 it has moderated but it's at a higher level now than the headline number and it's been so unfortunately very sticky right it's it's taking a long time to come down what I think we're going to see here unfortunately is we made great inroads right we got from the nine percent down to like you know this low single digit territory three four percent someone that ballpark um but we're gonna have the last bit be the hardest bit you know you remember the word from like uh math back in the day asymptotically asymptotically ooh a long time ago very long time ago so that's kind of like the my anticipation here is that you know we made great inroads bringing it down from nine to five right but as we start to approach that two percent Target it's going to become a more and more trudging kind of you know realization that we're coming back towards more you know reasonable level of inflation so it's going to require more effort to get that last little bit out of it than it did to get the first big chunk out of it right that's that's what I think is gonna be the struggle here so this may last longer than we originally thought I was kind of hoping this would be like you know over a quick like uh you know Dylan's first marriage but that's a separate story I know I know I've been married three times correction I'm just kidding I'm just kidding yeah also the same woman I have a question before I show the chart um I know that they do excluding food and um energy but food and energy are still increasing correct from from what I was like or moderating still way too high but moderating the increase correct yes uh the reason why they do that is because it's a a better gauge because those things tend to fluctuate a lot right I mean energy is traded 24 hours a day practically we're right we're trading that uh and food really depends on growing seasons and you know kind of there's also another metric where you can look at as people make a shift from one item to the other if like you know beef becomes more expensive than chicken if you will buy more chicken that's the same kind of idea um so it they're a lot harder to track but they are always necessary for everyday life yeah so that's the part that I'm talking about because like if you look at the the USDA economic research service they're saying all foods expected to increase 5.8 percent for 2023 it's it just keeps on getting higher and higher and food and energy are the ones that impact the American Consumer the most it's not even close like when you go to grocery stores or grocery store bill is so much higher than it was two years ago like so much higher and we're not yeah I'm not buying anything different I'm pretty cheap housing is still like the largest portion of it and then you also have like a non-housing Services sector um we still have seen wage growth we still have seen inflation within you know basically salaries that's where part of this is still coming from is that you know people are woken up to working for for more money right and they're unwilling to work for Less anymore which I understand so you're still continuing to see the non-housing services uh edging uh forward ever without actually having a major reduction we have seen Goods inflation come down quite a bit right because you can now you can get a TV pretty goddamn Dirt Cheap yeah uh that might slow down and cars are coming down that sort of stuff but you're still seeing a lot of you know the services related uh you know inflationary pressure is continuing right so um this is actually this is the the spider select energy fund so it's not a stock it's it's just like energy as a whole bunch of companies you can see that we're actually coming up to a little bit of a head here so last time we hit this level we went down quite a bit then we hit it again then we went down and we're approaching it again so it is just something to keep an eye on um Excel f oh I'm no no hold on lets me affected by the weakening U.S dollar too so you will have a little bit more I guess pressure for the commodity to go up and because it's denominated in dollars right yeah and then what this was kind of interesting to me so this was this whole Bank uh you know three banks closed from like here to here and it was a little bit of a nightmare the entire this is the spider fund for financial services the entire thing is almost back up to where it was before this whole thing happened which is pretty wild let's look at the Spy real quick honestly the volume it just it doesn't really matter it's not crazy high or there's no really anomalies but it's just not breaking this 20 moving average and it's holding this nine moving average just repeatedly we're just on a never-ending train upwards and then of course you got your cues let me scroll out here figuring out money was arguing for that like that large red bar to be basically an engulfing candle that was could be like a two ball reversal pattern was was his uh thesis I don't know if I buy it I've had a bearish bias for a while but this still I'm like yeah that was his argument okay so who cares is the correct answer to that so let's just real quick oh here's another one oh it didn't matter oh here's a well there's kind of one it's technically not engulfing here's a golfing one oh it didn't matter uh where's another one oh here's another one oh who cares so that that works for small term trends like five or six days and also for that to be more successful just so you know you're supposed to be a lot higher from the nine moving average you're supposed to be extended and then that usually shows you have a minor correction right here hits off the 9 EMA or the 20ma on a daily chart that's trading but it the economy doesn't give a about this chart like they're not looking they're not like oh man we did a bear engulfing Candles now we gotta decrease our GDP Jay Pal's gonna sell a second house yeah another thing uh it's daily chart is is you know it it's more a wide look I I don't ever it would make more of a difference if like this bar was like way way up here than I'd paid more attention to it but it happens all the time it's bull crap it's just fairness new content in reference to the XLF thing um we should probably do a separate video about your bank returns because that was some sexy numbers out of me yeah yeah pretty dope I uh I have I can show it right now so we did a video um yeah it's kind of hard to show I'm I'm like up 100 we'll do a different video on it that's amazing I love it nothing like 100 winners man that's awesome congratulations all right all right guys uh let us know what you think and uh we'll we'll uh we'll do that dpst video later have a good one okay next one
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