저자: Dylan·Vinnie · 외국인
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BABA 주가 급등의 배경으로 앤트그룹 과징금(약 9.85억 달러) 뉴스를 짚으며, 중국 규제 완화 신호로 해석함. 당일 BABA는 거래량 급증과 함께 약 8% 상승했고, 200일·100일 이동평균선을 돌파함. 진행자는 이를 강한 매수세의 신호로 봄. 앤트그룹이 1월 소비자 사업 확장 승인을 받는 등 당국의 엄격한 조치가 완화되는 흐름이라고 평가하며, 상장(IPO) 재추진 가능성에 기대를 표함. 알리바바가 앤트그룹 지분 약 33%를 보유하고 있다고 언급함. JD 등 다른 중국 주식도 함께 상승했으나 BABA의 상승폭이 더 컸다고 설명함. 중국 중앙은행의 완화적 통화정책 기대도 언급함. 현 주가 약 320달러 수준은 고점 대비 크게 눌린 상태이며, 메타가 저점에서 6개월 내 회복한 사례와 비교함. 진행자는 자사주 매입 등 주주환원이 부족하다고 아쉬워함. 장기 투자자에게는 낮은 주가 구간이 나쁘지 않다는 입장. 결론적으로 규제 리스크 완화와 중국 경기 부양 기대에 무게를 둔 낙관적 시각이며, 단기 방향에 대한 명확한 가격 예측은 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
hey welcome back to two stupid guys trade stocks I am Dylan and I'm Vinnie and holy crap for those of us been around Alibaba stock for a while today was one of those beautiful days where we actually feel Vindicated as you watch their portfolio go up eight freaking percent in one goddamn day we're gonna talk about the news headline because it doesn't quite make sense we're going to get into why it may make sense after all let's see two stupid guys three stocks what I really want to see Dylan is I want to see the big sexy volume bar compared to other days oh I'm going to show you look at here in a second don't you worry um so here's the five minute chart I just want to show like as you can see it just it went up this is insane volume for this time of day by the way um not time of day the beginning but as you're going to see the volume was off the charts we hit like 400 at one point um it literally just never stopped going up and then it dipped towards the end but regained in the after hours uh you ready oh I gotta move my face darn it just power just Trucking like a power a house right up the hill oh yeah it's about four times ish the regular day and more importantly it pushed us right up through the 200 moving average and the 100 moving average there's no selling look at this it's just a solid white bar oh that's nice man we'll see if we can hold it that's the real question you know because this is something I've been talking about for a while you know comparing stocks like uh Nvidia which is priced for Perfection compared to Baba where all they have to do is get one thing yeah it's the exact opposite their prices to get nothing right exactly don't forget our main man Michael burry was buying this stuff in his most recent 13 half quarterly filing you know with someone else we've followed for a while and it's nice to see that you know another person that use valuations maybe like somewhat in our realm of logic with buying the same kind of stock but that's always sexy also but here's the headline all right it makes no goddamn sense right got it you're fined 985 billion uh million dollars sorry like almost a billion dollars got it why does stock go up well I know the answer but so the answer is very particular so this this article from CNBC kind of gives you the back story here a little bit about how they were ready to go public as an IPO it got shut down and they basically started the war between the CCP and like you know kind of private Enterprise in in the country of China uh there were multiple companies that got fined and all this sort of stuff and it was a multi-year kind of fiasco if you will uh but they talked about how there were signs that it was starting to ease now that you know ant group was getting approval as recently as January for to expand their consumer business things like that but there's one particular line I think really kind of highlights why they saw so much enthusiasm here that's right here the central banks now is normalized supervision all right suggesting the strict measures like fines maybe calming down that's what they're hoping for is that where through this period where the CCP was cracking down heavily on all these private companies trying to really get them all back in line after you know Jackman his famous kind of public meltdown or whatever you want to say criticism um yeah so it's sort of a pretty extended period of time that we've had to take as absolute barrage as Alibaba shareholders and and now we're hoping that this is maybe a sign that we're moving past that phase you know you started to see the Chinese kind of Central Bank it's hard to do kind of more accommodative financial kind of policy if you will trying to stimulate their economy to grow uh in comparison to the rest of the world right now which is really doing a restrictive policy um but you know we're hoping we're through this phase and that we now are going to return not only to the accommodative policy but also to the point where there's not going to be any specific kind of limitations or um microscope or or kind of microscopic analysis of the moves of a company like ant Group which may be clearing you know a potential likelihood for them to go forward their IPO which was initially planned right so I think that was the main um part of the of the Chinese good news today was was the ant group thing because if you look yes all Chinese these stocks were up today um that's what I was gonna say I I also bought 100 shares of JD um you know just gotta get in there bro I was up like six percent but if you look at how much JD was up versus uh Baba they're both up a bunch but Bob owes up a lot more because it had two things and the Ant group is definitely enticing as we yeah I can't remember the percentage that so they own 33 of Van group uh angst group in itself had almost a 40 billion valuation at one point in time um still not like you know the most massive thing in the world as far as moving their needle don't forget like Alibaba is not the smallest Company by far um but we are talking about you know still a decent chunk of equity even at the reduced valuations now we're talking about uh with with anchor best compared to like I said their Peak eye which was almost 40 billion dollars uh but either way I think it's a positive move forward that they're you know hopefully moving this past this cycle of you know strict kind of lockdowns and Punishment of both their economy and of individual businesses that's what everyone's kind of optimistic I would say at this point more optimism I'm gonna show I'm gonna zoom out real quick um because I just want to show Baba's slide here all right yeah so I mean this is what is that 320.
nah yikes yep I know comparison to to meta which you know hit 90 which is you know a similar low say and was back to 300 within a a period of what six months a little bit more than that it's disgusting it's just straight up yeah Baba's been kind of a much more depressed for a much longer period of time Unfortunately they haven't really done the things with BuyBacks that I'd like to see them do during this time period uh but still staying lower for a longer period of time I think is a good thing ultimately for people that have that longer term time Horizon with Alibaba stock like I do absolutely all right guys give us a like And subscribe if you had a great day in the market finally some good news from Baba because just just just getting berated all the time it's so depressing exactly all right catch the next one
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