저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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짐 로저스는 금·은 보유와 원자재 투자가 위기 대비에 유효하며, 채권은 버블이라 회피하고 농산품 등 원자재가 가장 저평가된 자산이라고 주장한다. 금·은 보유 주장: 로저스는 본인이 금·은을 오래 보유하고 있으며 위기 대비 필수라고 강조한다. 금은 1970~1980년 약 2,300% 상승, 2007~2011년 두 배 상승을 근거로 제시하고, 은은 2008~2009년 불황기에 약 12달러 수준을 유지했다고 언급한다. 현재 추가 매수는 하지 않고 관망 중이라고 한다. 통화정책 비판: 연준·정책당국은 무능하거나 관료적이라며 신뢰하지 않는다. 미국과 일본의 대규모 돈 찍기가 인플레이션을 초래할 것이고 인플레이션은 아직 끝나지 않았다고 본다. 연준 윌리엄스 총재와 파월 의장의 금리 인하 관련 발언도 함께 언급된다. 경기·증시 전망: 선거 전년도는 증시가 좋은 경향이 있으나 내년에는 문제 징후가 보인다고 한다. 주식 상승 종목이 점점 좁아지고 신규 투자자가 유입되는 것을 경계한다. 현재 주식을 공매도하지는 않았지만 크게 줄였고, 블로우오프(급등 후 폭락)가 나오면 공매도할 생각이라고 한다. 주식·채권·부동산 여러 나라가 버블 상태로 보며 주식은 버블을 형성 중이라고 평가한다. 채권: 2023년 채권시장은 버블이며 채권 보유를 강하게 회피해야 한다고 주장한다. 금리 인하 기대로 수익률이 하락한 점도 언급된다. 원자재: 2023년 가장 저렴한 자산군은 원자재이며, 은은 최고가 대비 60% 하락했다고 언급한다. 특히 농산품은 근본적 문제로 침체 상태이고 변화가 올 가능성이 커 기회가 가장 크다고 본다. 금은 사상 최고치, 석유는 강세, 설탕은 약세로 평가한다. 일본: 일본 증시는 35년 전 고점 이후 침체 상태지만 일본은행의 주식 매입과 세제 혜택으로 상승 가능성이 있다고 보나, 인구 감소와 부채 급증으로 장기적으로는 심각한 문제가 있다고 경고한다. 중국: 부동산 버블 붕괴와 코로나 영향으로 경기가 둔화됐으나 문제가 끝날 가능성이 보이며, 거대 경제이므로 투자 매력이 있다고 본다. 지정학 리스크: 무역전쟁과 실제 전쟁 위험이 커지고 있으며, 이란 개입 시 중국·러시아까지 연루될 수 있어 우려된다고 말한다. 이는 시장에 영향을 준다고 본다.
다듬은 글
I own gold I own silver I own precious metals I have for many years they're in the closet everybody should have some silver and gold under the bed because if there's a problem like all of us peasants know when there's a serious catastrophe you better have some gold and silver in the closet so I do but am I running out and buying gold or silver now no I'm mainly watching because I certainly own enough of both of those but everybody should have some gold and silver let say if a crisis comes you want to have gold and silver renowned investor Jim Rogers recently shared his insights on the outlook for 2024 shedding light on the importance of holding gold and silver for Financial Security particularly during economic uncertainty Rogers emphasized the global demand for gold noting its resilience across regions during recessions in the event of a global economic downturn Gold's intrinsic value and liquidity make it a preferred asset for investors seeking stability Golds enduring Global appeal and international demand position it as remarkably resilient despite Regional recessions this resilience is accentuated during global economic downturns where gold stands out as a valuable and liquid commodity functioning as a sought-after safe haven asset gold maintains its readability even in turbulent markets exemplified by its remarkable surge of over 2,300 between 1970 and the peak in 1980 the 2007 stock market collapse further emphasized Gold's attractiveness during crises with a rise in demand leading to a doubling of its value between 2007 and 2011 showcasing its ability to outperform traditional Assets in times of financial stress silver another precious metal has shown a different historical trajectory its most significant rise occurred in the 1970s coinciding with its largest bull market however during the 2008 or 2009 recession silver demonstrated resilience by maintaining a relatively stable price of around $12 per ounce throughout the economic downturn Rogers expressed skepticism regarding the clarity and competence of certain policymakers and authorities this sentiment is echoed in recent statements from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams who resisted Market expectations for imminent interest rate Cuts deeming discussions premature simultaneously Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged a shift in The fed's Stance indicating a halt in hikes and actively considering potential rate Cuts let's delve into key moments from Jim rogers's interview with these video clips well the reason they're never clear is because they don't know what they're doing you know they don't they don't have a clue what's going on and if they get it right it's an accident they haven't been we've had a couple of good fed fed chairman in the past 100 years but for the most part you know they're bureaucrats and academics they don't know what they're doing the US printed staggering amounts of money the Central Bank in Washington I don't think any Central Bank has ever printed as much as they did so of course things feel good right now well the Japanese also have printed staggering amounts of money probably more than they ever have before so with between Japan and America printing a lot of money you know those are two gigantic economies with a lot of money being printed a lot of people having a good time nearly always the year before an election in the US is a good year in the stock market it was again this year I would suspect that next year will start to show problems I already see some of the warning signs you know you see some stocks go up every day the the list is getting narrower and narrower you have new people coming into the market who never been in the market before they think it's easy they tell all their friends they've discovered this new thing called the stock market and it's easy to make money you know all we've seen this movie before this is not my first rodeo I just I don't I don't know about a hard Landing or soft Landing we it's been the longest period in American history without an economic problem so I maybe we're never going to have economic problems again the politicians in Washington say they've solved all our problems well if you believe them everything's great I happen to have read a little bit of history and I know that's never been the case so I'm worried oh absolutely I mean I'm not short I'm not selling short or anything yet I have cut back enormously but I'm not shorting not yet I know that we the inflation is not finished markets you know go up they correct they go up they correct that's what's happened with inflation things feel better right now and they are better right now but no Kai inflation is not finished and we're going to have more of it and it's going to be serious I hope you're worried money printing is always led many things lead to inflation but especially money Printing and there's been staggering amounts of money printing in the last several months years in fact so it's got to be very bad next time bond market projections for the upcoming year which initially appeared pessimistic when published in November have faced challenges as yields declined following the federal reserve's shift towards interest rate Cuts in the next year investor Jim Rogers expresses a personal stance against owning Bonds in 2023 citing his belief that the bond market is in a bubble according to Rogers commodities are the most cost-effective asset class for the coming year meanwhile stock markets displayed positive momentum on Tuesday with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ Composite extending their gains for the ninth consecutive day the S&P 500 is nearing its record high driven by Trader optimism about the Federal Reserve potentially initi iting interest rate cuts by the spring of the upcoming year Roger suggests that in his assessment various assets including bonds and properties in numerous countries appear overvalued he further notes that stocks are forming and may be gearing up for a potential bubble let's get back to the interview at the end there's a blowoff and things been really crazy you know in the in 1999 I guess it was the market doubled in six months or something in that blowoff so we've had blow-offs before they can be extremely profitable or unprofitable if you're on the wrong side but no I would I am waiting in case there is a blowoff and I hope I'm smart enough to short it if it happens everything stocks bonds I mean I wouldn't known bonds anywhere in 2023 Bond markets certainly AB bubble uh you know I cheapest asset that I can see in 2023 as Commodities you know silver is down 60% from its all-time high Etc but most assets bonds are a bubble property in many countries is a bubble stocks are forming getting ready for a bubble no I'm I don't see any cheap asset classes except Commodities the main worry that I as I look out the window and look at the world I see that more and more people are getting angry with each other and that often leads to war trade War if nothing else trade Wars are bad enough nobody wins trade Wars but they sometimes lead to shooting Wars and certainly nobody wins shooting Wars but they certainly do enormous damage when they occur absolutely and it it seems like it we're headed that way again as well like it's all interl anyway so getting Iran involved now which means China might get involved and Russia from one side so I hope you watch all of this closely because I see many of the same signs you do and it's not encouraging no it's very very worrisome like I actually don't like even talking about it but we have to discuss it because it does affect markets unfortunately what we're uh you know investing in and it has to do with uh it's cap from a capitalistic point of view we have to take a look at that let's look at 2024 you you mentioned a few things already some things you're looking forward to let's stay on the commodity side for for a minute do you have a favorite commodity for 2024 anything you're you're putting extra weight on in terms of investing well if I agriculture is very depressed you know and there many fundamental problems and have been fundamental problems in agriculture which usually leads to change so if I were looking at any specific area I would get out a list of the Agricultural Commodities and start looking for opportunities that's where I see the best opportunity I mean Gold's at an all-time high I'm not the only one who knows that oil's been very strong etc etc sugar is not very strong Bank of Japan has been buying shares uh they've been passing laws to encourage people to invest all of these things have happened before and when they happen especially if you have a depressed Market you know the Japanese Market made its high 35 years ago that's not a typo 35 years ago and now the Japanese Bank Central is buying new tax laws are good for people who buy shares no there are reasons to think that Japan may go up now Japan has horrible problems guys you know Japan's had a declining population for 15 years now the debt is skyrocketing as you point out no Japan unless something happens they're not going to be a Japan in 50 years China's had the virus and they had a real estate bubble pop a huge bubble pop so J but China's had some problems uh which is why the markets are down which is why the economy has been slow most problems come to an end you can I can think I can see the end of the property bubble coming to an end I think I can see some of the problems and the virus coming to an end and if that's the case China is not a bad place to invest because it's a huge economy and lots of people working very hard with a focus on Commodities as the potentially most cost-effective asset class in 2023 what specific Commodities does Jim Rogers see as particularly promising and how does he suggest investors approach this sector given the potential bubble in the bond market What alternative investment strategies does Jim Rogers recommend for investors seeking Financial Security in 2023 share your thoughts in the comment section if you like the video please subscribe to our Channel and remember to activate notifications by hitting the Bell icon your participation means a lot to us thank you
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