저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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결론: 마크 파버는 현 시점에서 금·은·백금 등 귀금속 및 광산주를 매수할 시기라고 본다. 귀금속 및 광산주 투자 주장 현재 광산주(금·은·백금)가 실물 귀금속 대비 할인 상태이며, 포트폴리오 관점에서 지금이 매수 적기라고 주장. Zacks 금 광산 산업군이 약 250개 산업 중 상위 32%에 속해, 향후 3~6개월 동안 시장 대비 초과수익이 예상된다는 근거를 제시. 금은 중앙은행의 지속적인 돈 찍어내기 구조 때문에 장기적 가치저장 수단으로 유효하다고 주장. 금 가격 및 역사적 근거 최근 금 가격이 4거래일 연속 상승해 6개월 이상 고점 기록(스팟 금 1.4% 상승, 온스당 약 2,041달러 수준). 달러 약세와 연준 금리인상 종료 기대가 원인. 1970년 온스당 35달러였던 금은 현재 약 2,000달러로 상승했으나, 파버는 지금 금이 1970년만큼 싸지는 않다고 언급. 1980년 1월 금 고점(약 677달러) 이후 1982년 6월 300달러 이하로 하락한 사례를 들어 과도한 기대의 위험을 강조. 자산배분 및 실물 보유 파버는 매달 금을 꾸준히 매입하며, 자산배분에서 귀금속(실물)을 약 25% 비중으로 유지. 나머지는 부동산·주식·채권·현금. 실물 귀금속 중심 보유, 일부는 금광 주식으로 분산. 금리·인플레이션 전망 장기(20~30년)적으로는 인플레이션 가속과 금리 상승 추세를 예상하나, 향후 6개월은 금리가 하락할 것으로 전망. 10년물 국채금리는 2000년 약 0.57% 저점 이후 상승 추세. 미국 장기채(TLT) 고점 170 대비 현재 약 87~88 수준이며, 약 110까지 반등 가능성 언급. 주식·통화·신흥국 전망 기업 실적 감소로 주식시장은 압박받을 것으로 봄. 달러는 하락, 귀금속은 상승 전망. 홍콩·중국 등 신흥국은 극도로 비관적 심리 속에 있으며 1973년 이후 최저 수준으로 저평가. 홍콩 우량 부동산 기업은 자산가치 대비 60% 할인 거래 중이라고 언급. 남아공 금광주가 매우 저평가되어 있다고 평가. 리스크 및 주의 지나치게 낙관적인 시장에서는 매수하지 말라는 원칙 강조. 금광주는 유동성이 작아 기관 자금이 대형주 위주로 들어갈 수 있다는 점 언급.
다듬은 글
sometimes precious metals stocks are at a significant premium to the physical and sometimes there at a significant discount to the physical at the present time I think that mining stocks Gold Silver Platinum are at a discount to the underlying physical precious metal so now is a time to buy essentially precious metal stocks some gold shares and I think purely from a portfolio man measurement point of view from a performance point of view now is a good time to buy mining stocks Mark Faber renowned editor and publisher of the Gloom boom and amp Doom report recommends a strategic shift toward precious metal stocks specifically Gold Silver and platinum with inflation on the horizon Faber sees the current moment as a prime opportunity to invest in these assets given their discounted prices relative to physical Metals he believes mining stocks in these metal are undervalued indicating a favorable time for potential investment the outlook for mining stocks particularly in the gold sector appears optimistic with the Zach mining gold Industry Group ranking in the top 32% among approximately 250 Industries this favorable ranking suggests an anticipated outperformance relative to the broader Market in the next 3 to 6 months Farber maintains that despite the ascent in gold prices these Metals remain a robust store of value Faber contends that their enduring appeal is fortified by the indispensable role of central banks in the Perpetual Act of money printing the recent surge in gold prices further supports Faber's perspective gold has climbed for the fourth consecutive session reaching a more than six-month high this upward movement is attributed to a weakening dollar and the prevailing sentiment that the US Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hikes notably spot gold gained 1.4% reaching 20 , 4155 per ounce Faber's investment strategy involves a consistent monthly purchase of gold comprising approximately 25% of his Diversified asset allocation this allocation places precious metals alongside real estate stocks bonds and cash reflecting a comprehensive and well-rounded investment philosophy before diving into Mark Faber's insightful interview subscribe to our Channel and give this video a big thumbs up you know the big Diversified companies they do exploration or they buy exploration companies and they produce uh gold and silver so I have both but uh from a portfolio point of view I believe that financial institutions and the mindset of portfolio managers at Fidelity and all these large financial institutions is against gold because gold is honest money and uh say if we measure stocks against gold over longer periods of time sometimes stocks underperform gold so the portfolio managers don't like to talk too much about gold but if they will be forced to move into the gold sector they'll buy the big ones because of the liquidity small stocks don't have enough liquidity for Calpers and for Vanguard and for Black Rock and so for so they'll baric and new Mon and so hor I've been advising investors to own gold and other precious metal Silver Platinum for the last 40 years and I buy continuously every month some gold and in my asset allocation gold is a a side of real estate stocks bonds and cash gold and precious metals physical would be about 25% so I have a large exposure to Precious Metals I don't think that gold today is as cheap as it was in 1970 when it was at $35 an ounce this I want to point out I'm a Swiss I live here I grew up here I lived since 1970 outside Switzerland but I come back so I can tell what the price level was say 50 years ago and what it is today so let's say it's about up 10 times the price level gold in the meantime is up much more from $35 an ounce to close to $2,000 an ounce so gold has actually been a good store of value and uh when I look at the Commodities complex say oil would be cheaper than gold or wheat corn soybeans sugar uh even coffee is much cheaper than gold uh but I think in consider ation of central banks whose function in the long run is to print money we never forget that a central bank exists to print money in view of that I think that gold and other precious metals are still a good investment from a long-term perspective and also from a safety aspect secondly there are times when paper is more expensive than the physical say in real estate real estate stocks they swing more than the value of the real estate in Precious Metals it's the same sometimes precious metals stocks are at a significant premium to the physical and sometimes they're at a significant discount to the physical at the present time I think that mining stocks Gold Silver Platinum are at a discount to the underlying physical precious metal so now is a time to buy essentially precious metal stocks Faber identifies major peaks in commodity prices around 1980 followed closely by a pinnacle in interest rates in 1981 this initiated a prolonged phase of declining structures in both inflation and interest rates influenced by Central Bank interventions Faber highlights clear patterns and Cycles in inflation interest rates and commodity prices during this particular time frame a pivotal moment in this historical context was the peak in gold prices at 67 $7 per ounce in January 1980 signaling a staggering 97% loss in US dollar purchasing power relative to its original fixed price of $20.67 per ounce however by June 1982 Gold's valuation had receded to less than $300 per ounce Faber underscores the unrealistic expectations of infinitely higher gold prices in 1980 highlighting the subsequent Market correction shortly after in 1980 inflation in the US soared to 14% during the same period coinciding with an astonishing 17% fed funds rate by March of that year drawing from this historical perspective Faber illuminates his investment strategy revealing that a substantial portion of his precious metal Holdings resides in physical assets he underscores the foundational strength he perceives in physical assets however he also discloses a strategic diversification with some Holdings in Gold shares aligning with a nuanced approach to Port folio management let's get back to the interview the key is that we have long-term cycles and we have uh cycles of accelerating inflation and then de accelerating uh inflation or disinflation or even deflation and we have uh Trends and cycles of rising interest rates and falling interest rates and Rising commodity prices and falling commodity prices so it all varies but my sense is that we had a peak in commodity prices in 1980 and the peak in interest rates in 81 thereafter we had a declining structure of both uh inflation and interest rates uh partly artificially steered by central banks but we made a major low in say May August uh 2000 and where the 10 years treasury yielded less than 0.6% we went down to 0.57% and now we are in an uptrend in inflation and uptrend in interest rates that will be interrupted from time to time by counter Trend moves such as we had in the 1970s but the long-term Trend next 20 30 years is for inflation to accelerate and for interest rates to move up although the next 6 months I think that interest rates will go down so we have to distinguish between the short-term Trend and the long-term Trend my observation of uh in my life as an investor and as a social Observer and Economist is that you should never buy anything where the mood is very optimistic because the expectations are exceeding the reality on the other hand if we talk about gloom and doom uh Emerging Markets are in a very negative sentiment phase especially China and Hong Kong so I would say there is an opportunity saying properties in Hong Kong you can buy the best property companies at a discount of 60% to asset value the asset value will go down but not by 60% in my view the same with gold shares I think especially the South African are very cheap so myself I hold most of my precious metal uh portfolio in physical and I can explain later on why but I also have uh some gold shares and I think purely from a portfolio management point of view from a performance point of view now is a good time to buy mining stocks well I think that asset markets are not in a favorable position because financial markets uh they will be plagued by in the corporate sector I mean stock markets will be plagued by declining corporate earnings and uh in terms of currencies I think the dollar will go down precious metals will rise the bond market will rally for a while say if you look at TLT the high was 170 it's now at uh 87 886 as I think we can rally to around 110 so investors uh should do well by being out of the US dollar in my view and Emerging Markets they have never been this low since 1973 Visa the developed markets so I would look at investing some money in emerging economies how might these historical patterns and favors current invest ment philosophy guide individual investors in navigating today's economic landscape and potential Market shifts what lessons can be drawn from this historical correction and how might it inform our understanding of today's market dynamics share your thoughts in the comments section if the video resonates with you join our community by subscribing to our Channel and enabling notifications with the Bell icon thank you for being a part of our community
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