저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 차마스 팔리하피티야는 금리 장기 고공행진으로 시장이 악화될 것이라며 테슬라 주가 추가 급락(약 150달러 쪽) 가능성을 경고했다. 거시 환경 및 금리 전망 - 연준이 예상보다 높고 예상보다 오래 금리를 올릴 것이라 주장 - 기준금리 최종 수준 약 5.5%, 2024년 상반기까지 고금리 지속 전망 (이전 예상은 4.75%) - 2025년 초까지 시장이 힘든 국면이 이어질 수 있다고 봄 - 인플레이션이 6개월 내 재부상할 것으로 보고 연준의 추가 인상을 예상 미국 증시(S&P500) - 10월 시점에는 S&P500 단기 바닥을 봤고 단기 상승을 기대했음 - 다만 랠리는 지속 불가능하며 결국 되돌림이 올 것이라 언급 - 데이비드 색스의 내년 대규모 경기침체 견해에 동조 테슬라 - 주가가 약 197달러(11월 7일)에서 하락, 11월 21일 약 168달러로 2년 최저, 3개월간 40% 이상 하락 - 팔리하피티야는 추가 하락 및 변동성 확대를 경고 (구체적 목표가 제시는 없음) - 모건스탠리 애널리스트 아담 조나스: 테슬라 목표가 330달러 유지, 베어케이스 150달러 근접으로 매력도 상승, 12.5x EV/EBITDA 및 23x PE 수준은 가치 매력 있다고 평가 - 조나스는 중국 수요 둔화·가격 인하 리스크를 인정하나 테슬라가 차량 판매에서 이익을 내는 유일한 EV 업체라고 강조 기타 리스크 - 벤처캐피털 수백억 달러 가치 훼손 우려, 고금리 장기화가 포트폴리오 및 행동 변화를 유발 - FTX/SBF 사태를 금융 리스크의 빙산 일각으로 언급 - 스팩(SPAC) 시장 거품은 저금리 장기화의 산물이라고 비판 - 러시아-우크라이나 등 외생 변수가 부정적 영향을 줄 수 있다고 언급
다듬은 글
given its current performance in the stock market what do you think will happen to Tesla's stock in the coming weeks today's economy is a great cause for concern and it also affects the Stock's volatility in the market Social Capital CEO chamat palahoptia believes that Tesla stock will crash next week so you surely would not want to miss this info billionaire chamat palahapda is painting a bleak macroeconomic picture despite signs that inflation is starting to cool down in a recent episode of the all in podcast Palo hoptia doubles down on his call that the Federal Reserve will keep hiking interest rates higher than all of you think and higher than all of you want chamat palahapia is a Silicon Valley venture capital investor who has made himself into a tech fire brand he is a proponent of spax a kind of investment vehicle that allows private companies to go public with less scrutiny from the SEC follow haptia is a sponsor and investor in half a dozen specs companies they have merged with include virgin in Galactic and clover Health he is also the founder of Social Capital a venture capital firm that he started in 2011 although the firm faced a wave of defections in 2018.
in late October so-called SPAC King chamat Pala haptia said the zero interest rates the Federal Reserve allowed to persist for years created the perverted market conditions he benefited from at the height of the covid pandemic during an axios event Paula haptia explained what he felt contributed to the rapid rise and collapse of the SPAC Market the shorthand for special purpose acquisition companies which created a way for young firms to go public without some of the usual IPO hurdles spax which grew in popularity in the first two years of the pandemic have seen a reset amid economic and Regulatory headwinds still there are more than 450 deals on the market for a merger Target ahead of 2023 deadlines according to SPAC research we are learning what went wrong which is that we had a decade plus of zero interest rates Palo hoptia said of the market that is what fundamentally was wrong it perverted the market it distorted reality it allowed manias and asset bubbles to build in every single part of the economy low interest rates mean lower Returns on savings accounts which can encourage more spending in the economy which can be a boon for high growth assets nearly a year after accurately forecasting this year's meltdown in global markets billionaire investor chamat palahoptia says he's positioned to capitalized on a Major Market rally in another all-in podcast episode Paula haptia says he's bullish on the S P 500 as he believes the stock market index has carved a short-term bottom I think this is the point where you have to start to get pretty constructive about where things are going because if this stuff could not bring the market down it's hard to see something other than an exogenious event probably some Russia Ukraine event really having a negative impact it seems pretty bullish for me says the Venture Capital investor although Paula haptia is bullish on the stock market he predicts the rally will likely be unsustainable he says that he agrees with the sentiments of fellow venture capitalist David Sachs who believes that the U.S will likely see a huge recession next year due to the impact of the fed's rapid interest rate hikes on the economy I think the stock market is going up then it will go back down because what David said is right but for the short term this thing is going up we've generally been positioned for it to go up and at some point we will reverse and position for it to go back down but it's going up however this was in late October and things have taken a turn since then now chamat palahatya is warning investors that the Federal Reserve is determined to crush demand in an effort to tame inflation in a new episode of the all-in podcast Paula optia says investors should buckle up now that the FED has signaled that markets will likely have to endure more interest rate hikes than consensus expectation according to him if you take a very balanced view of what happened in in the recent weeks you have to start with the Federal Reserve what they said is rates will probably be higher than all of you think and they'll be higher for longer than all of you want without debating whether that's going to come to pass or not the thing that you can do is you can build a little sensitivity model to understand the mathematical implication of it says Paula hoptia he added that it basically means that the dollar that's right in front of you is now meaningfully more important than the dollar that's far away from you it can be noted that the U.S federal reserve recently raised interest rates by 0.75 percent for the fourth consecutive time to bring the Benchmark federal funds rate at a range of 3.75 percent to four percent investors generally expect interest rates to top out at around 4.75 percent by next year however Paula haptia says that investors should now be prepared for a scenario where the FED keeps raising interest rates until 2025.
Powell said he'd rather over correct and break things because he has a toolbox to fix the broken bone phones but he doesn't have a toolbox to fix it if they under correct and they have a rampant inflation not more explicit you can get shared polyhoptia he further explained that the FED is going to take rates higher until demand is destroyed and enough demand is destroyed such that inflation is tamed but that has huge implications to all of us because we all have to do our job trying to build a company trying to raise money trying to invest money he added Paula hoppedia said that it's getting much harder than he first thought he initially thought that the U.S could get through the worst of this by mid-2023 however it does not appear so but now you have to plan for the worst which means okay now I'm thinking man rates could be higher for much longer which means we could be in this market until early 2025.
he said of course this could greatly affect Tesla 2. even today Tesla stock is exhibiting Extreme volatility in the stock market the stock is still trading below 200 since it dropped to around 197 dollars on nov November 7th and it appears that things are going to get even worse according to chamat palahoptia he sees inflation rearing its ugly head in the next six months which he says would embolden the FED to keep raising interest rates that would subsequently trigger another sell-off event in the financial markets we have all of these positive news in the offing but the problem is again there is still a lot of risk to the downside we haven't seen David's second dip in the recession so that double dip is going to be expensive says the venture capitalist Paula hoptia further predicts that the Federal Reserve will push interest rates to 5.5 percent until the first half of 2024.
according to Palo haptia a high interest rate environment for an extended period of time will annihilate hundreds of billions of dollars worth of venture capital according to him we are just getting started to see the drawdowns as well as starting to see the impacts on people's portfolios that will drive Behavior change this SBF Sam bankman freed thing is the tip of the iceberg in terms of the money at risk says Paula hoptia Sam bankman freed is the founder and former CEO of FTX a crypto derivatives exchange that filed for bankruptcy last week Tesla shares continue to recent slide hitting a two-year low on November 21st when the stock was down 6.8 percent to about 168 dollars per share that's the lowest level since November 2020 the reasons for the decline are some of the same that have contributed to the more than 40 percent drop in the stock over the last three months in mid-november Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas a long time Tesla bull came out with a new note to clients in which he noted that Tesla's stock is getting closer to his 150 per share bear case and that makes it more attractive on an ebi TDA multiple basis according to the said note Tesla shares would trade at approximately 12.5 x EV ebi TDA and 23xpe on our f y25 forecast SBC burdened which we see as excellent value for a self-funded 20 to 30 percent Top Line grower in top position to benefit from re-architecting the U.S onshore Nearshore French Shore renewable supply chain at scale the analyst believes that it is creating a window of opportunity opening for prospective Tesla investors despite challenges including decelerating demand and price Cuts in China Tesla is the only electric vehicle maker covered by Morgan Stanley that generates a profit on the sale of its cars Jonas wrote in a note the analyst who also highlighted Tesla's potential to benefit from consumer tax credits in the U.S reiterated his 330 dollar price Target overall macroeconomic issues put a blight on Tesla's anticipated success as Silicon Valley venture capitalist investor chamath palahoptia warns against oblique scenario in the stock market still there are those who remain optimistic about the leading EV companies few future subscribe to this Channel and have a great time watching
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