원문 보기
now what I'd like to talk about is what I call the 10 most dangerous things uh people say about stocks uh uh here's a good one if it's gone down this much already it can't go any lower uh I remember when Polaroid went from 140 to about 107 people said if you ever get Polaroid under 100 got to buy it you just back up the truck buy the stock you know uh stock you get to 110 then rally you know fall 103 got 112 got father said gets under 100 buy Polaroid Polaroid broke 100 people started buying it and within 9 months the stock was 18 uh I saw the same thing with Avon products so just saying you you know it's gone down this far you know how much lower I mean it's crazy but you know it can keep going in fact I tried this out Kaiser Industries I was a new Analyst at Fidelity and we were about to buy the biggest block ever at Kaiser Industries the stock had gone from 29 to 17 we're about to buy the largest block ever in the history of the American Stock Exchange we bought I don't know 10 or 15 million shares at 15 and 3/4 I said my God the stocks gone from 29 to 17 how much lower can it go so he bought this enormous block at 15 and 3/4 so I called my mother and I said Mom I guess I kais it's 10 so about 3 months later said you ought to buy this it's gone from 29 to 10 how much lower can it go well it went to 9 it went to 8 it went to seven it went to six it went to five it went to four now fortunate me this happened very rapidly or I'd be working at the Stop and Shop bag and behind the line state of fidell so fortunately this was compressed in only about 6 months so I had to go to the fun M and say I was a little bit early on this at 15 and 3/4 it uh but it uh we call this premature in the business the uh uh had a correction which you know is a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly at the uh uh so I said let's check this again the stocks for they own 45% of Kaiser Aluminum they own 59% of Kaiser steel they own 38% of Ka cement they own all of Kaiser Electronics all of Kaiser broadcasting which had seven TV sets they own Jeep they had Kaiser fiberglass they had about Kaiser s gravel they had bunch of other Kaisers and they had no debt now in this room because I know Freeman Billings is very interested in financial stocks no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt now that would take a real I think you have to give some kind of distinguished service award do somebody did that the uh but they had no debt I said it's not going to go to zero you know I was wrong when I said it can't go below 15 so we hung on and within 3 years they gave out the shares in Kaiser steel gave out the shares in Kaiser SP gave out the shares in Kaiser steel and aluminum and they sold off all the businesses you got about $55 a share but if you didn't know the story and the stock went from 1511 and you're just saying how much lower can it go when it went to nine went to eight you you would have gone so you can't just say you can't go any lower because I saw a Taco Bell go from 14 to1 in 1974 and they had no debt and making 60 cents a share uh there's a coral area to that that's even more dangerous if it's gone this high already how can it possibly go lower uh higher sorry that Philip Morris adjusted for splits uh sold for 12 cents in 1951 and then it goes to 60 cents in 1961 so it goes up fivefold and you say to yourself how much this it never sold for that but just for splits to say how much higher can this go it's gone up fivefold they missed the power of marra they missed the there's 220 countries in the world they missed the cash flow of the company they missed everything this stock was a 100 bagger after going up fivefold but people sold it just saying how much higher can it go can't go any higher they did the same at Home Depot they did the same with Toys R R Us I did the same thing Toys R Us just saying it can't go any higher it's gone this much already that's very dangerous and don't don't use that one and uh I it's a very bad thing to do eventually they always come back here's another one that sucks uh that's a technical stock market term we just use only in the stock market the uh uh RCA just about get back to its 1929 price was backed out by G uh Manville never came back International Harvester even with its name changed and adjusted for splits dosn't got all the way back yet Western Union double knits remember those wonderful things floppy discs they don't have to come back but they say eventually they always come back uh not true uh here's a great one it's $3 how much can I lose this is a great one yeah I get get out this is I don't have a computer and I can't do high level math but uh just do this one let's say you buy your neighbor buys $10,000 of a stock at 50 the Stock's now at three and you put $225,000 in at three if it goes to zero who loses the most a lot of people cannot answer this question you know the uh I mean if you put a billion in at three you can lose a billion if you know I mean they blow TAPS in lots of companies every year you know you just have they can go to zero uh the uh here's a good one that helped me a lot It's always darkest before the dawn uh the uh this business is terrible it's awful you ought to buy the group this is not a good way of making money at uh the uh here's one you're probably talking about before lunch freight car deliveries uh 1979 there was 96,000 Freight cars deliv United States two years later it fell to 45 ,000 the lowest in 23 years it goes from 96,000 to 45,000 people say business is awful it's horrible pathetic then it falls to 25,000 they say just load up there's about 15 opportunities to lose money here there's about 15 suppliers of freight cars 15 manufacturers business was awful well last year we shipped 7,000 Freight cars in the United States the business just contined to be miserable and uh I'll give you one that's even there's even greater opportunity to lose money on uh Energy Services industry this week we all had a great opportunity to get our heads hand to us uh in 1982 there was 11,000 of those oil rigs drilling left you know drilling those holes all over Oklahoma and Texas and Colorado we used to have the Rick count every week and the Rick count fell from 11,000 in 82 to 6,000 883 then fell a little bit lower in 84 and there's hundreds and hundreds of companies here companies that made the muds and did the downhole stuff the fracturing companies the the the wall companies all the measurement companies the B the bid companies lots of opportunities to lose money here there's an equal opportunity opportunity here for serious losses and people said listen the business is terrible let's buy these groups well the r count was only a th000 three years ago so it went from 11,000 to 6,000 to 5,000 then 8 years later it was under a thousand the industry really started turn about two years ago so just saying the business can't get worse I I was lucky enough addition have the metals industry in start valy I had the textile industry which is a great group to follow because you follow companies like JP Stevens was founded in the 18th century and uh West Point perol was found in the 18th century Burling indes is one of the new companies was founded 1904 these people have been through recessions depressions world wars they've seen it all there's a great expression Tex industry It's always darkest before pitch black now that's a good one to remember because when business is terrible it can get considerably terrible get terrible to the power of six and uh it uh I love those numbers on freight card you ever watch I love the show Jeopardy you watch Jeopardy and people come out they will know those numbers remember they'll know the numbers and they'll know you know what uh what country uh box uh took his first vacation in and they'll know Phil ruto's batting average and what his wife's first name was and they'll know the stock symbols of Xerox before it was halloy or you know they know everything and you watch the show and you feel like an absolute idiot watching the show because they answer all these questions but they're really smart I own this I've owned this stock before King world right after it they show Wheel of Fortune and they what happens is they'll have this word up there and it'll be th and there's a t and it say I buy a vow his I buy a u you know a buy an i and and you know they Vanna spins the wheel and they buy the A and you know you you're Redeemed by watching The Wheel of Fortune after feeling like an absolute jerk on the Jeopardy game and uh it's really smart it uh uh when I rebound to 10 I'll sell uh he's a great rule uh somebody buys a stock at 10 and it falls to six they say if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now I think the math four and six I can handle this love math I think that's about a 66% return you ought to buy it if you think it's going back to 10 you ought to buy the hell out the damn thing but they think if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now what you ought to do is never put down a round number because I think for the next 26 years this St go between five and N9 and a quarter it'll never get to 10 so maybe put 9 and e or 8 and 3/4 but just saying the stock if it gets back to what I paid for it this is a very important rule this is a very one of the key rules the stock doesn't know you own it remember that you could be a miserable person you could have uh you know never helped anybody never done anything right had 67 spouses never done anything right VI own Coca-Cola last 50 years it's gone up 300 fold you could be the greatest human in the world help Special Olympics help the mentally challenged help poor people help AIDS people if you own Bethlehem Steel it's lower than it was 30 years ago it's not your fault don't take this personal you know but people treat stocks sometimes like a grandchildren or a puppy they they think they think the stock knows who you are you know it's you know it doesn't work that way it uh uh what me worry I own conservative stocks uh I don't have to worry I own conservative stocks I when Con Ed fell uh 80% then triple uh Public Service Indiana went down 90% Gulf States utilities long on lighting this may be oxymoron with quality Texas banks that went to zero we had uh quality New England banks that went to zero uh these were companies have been around for 150 years 120 years saying I own conservative stocks I don't have to worry I've seen a lot of people that inherit a stock from somebody they'll say you know my mother said on her death bed don't sell the Long Island lighting you know you always wondered you know is it she's going to heaven or hopefully where she's going to heaven you know they talk about a l game or vacation or game of Hearts they had or imagine talking on your death bed about Long Island lighting and say you know but you get these stories all the time and I think your mother would have noticed she wouldn't have sold at 29 but she when she would have noticed they had this little plant that was about six billion over budget no one wanted it and wasn't working and uh Long Island stopped growing so maybe she would have turfed at 22 or got up at 18 she wouldn't have let it go to four you know so just because you inherit some stock and it's so-called conservative like Eastman Kodak fell 75% IBM fell 75% don't tell anybody you own a conservative stock companies are very Dynamic I don't buy that argument uh here's a very dangerous one look at all the money I've lost I didn't buy it it uh people do this all the time they say I didn't own Blockbuster I didn't own Home Depot I didn't know Toys R Us I uh Eric it was very nice to say some nice things about when I came up and Manny has been nice to me I one of my books listed on two pages in The 13 years of R mellan I listed I think about 200 stocks a through L on the New York Stock Exchange they went up tfold or more that I didn't own while I ran a gent I had own lots of stocks I listed 200 stocks a for l I stopped the letter L and I didn't own any of the shares they went up tenfold or more and I was able to do okay with mellin and people worry all the time about missing Microsoft missing Western Digital missing uh United Airlines they spend all their time worry about stocks they miss you cannot lose money in a stock you don't own that's a very important you have the only way to lose money is buy a stock have it go down and sell it that's the only way and I swear that people that their spouse has to cut out the newspaper in the morning cut out the C's and the personal look at the am oh my God Microsoft's up up three you know I had I was going to buy a th000 shares of Microsoft I lost 3,000 on Microsoft last night while I was sleeping you know the uh you know I was going to buy 7,000 shares of national semic contractor at 10 it's now 17 I just lost $49,000 on National semiconductor they do this all the time I mean they have to cut holes the block thank God Blockbuster finally one way because that would early in the alphabet people would always be looking how much they lost in Blockbuster uh I missed that one I'll catch the next one that usually does not work Toys R Us it was lot of copycats of toys us there was trial World there was liel there's copycats of Home Depot buying the next of something usually doesn't work it's uh it's very bad it's like buying on dips I think it's always better buy from dips I was that was a better rule than Buy on dip you may have to explain this to some other people uh this another technical term you may have to explain after hours what a dip is if usually refer to as plurals dips I never heard dip you know he's a dip she's a dip they usually only the plural tense for a it's and it's a gender non-specific it it's usually plural DP is never used um uh stock is gone gone up I must be right stock has gone down I must be wrong I convinced that people do this all the time they buy a stock at 10 they buy a little bit of it it goes to 13 that they now say they don't know anything more about it than they knew when they bought 10 they have no idea what this company does but it's gone to 13 now they take a second morgin the house and buy to 13 the best thing could happen for is it's that go directly from 10 to four for these folks you know it's going to go to four eventually but it goes to 13 in the middle they're convinced now they bought 100 shares at 10 now they buy 20,000 at 13 and uh all the fact is the stock went from 10 to 13 is it went up the average movement of a stock in the New York Stock Exchange this Century between its high and slow has been 50% the average stock in New Stock Exchange that means a stock start of the Year 20 sometime during the year sold at 16 sometimes during the year sold at 24 might have finished year at 21 might have finished year at 19 the average range of a stock in the year stock change is 50% in 12 months between its high it's slow so stocks go up and down a lot within a year and say this stock is going up means you're right doesn't mean a damn thing so don't buy off on that one it uh that is not a good one the uh avoid long shots uh these are the companies that uh we have this very technical term for this uh called whisper stocks the uh everybody familiar with whisper SNS they're they're great somebody call you up and they'll say hi Peter how's Carolyn how's Beth doing how's Annie how's Mary have you played any golf and then I'll say I want to talk to you about International bivet and the next get know one of those they'll get a shorter term in those places where they they have Nordic tracks and they put them away and they don't they don't have to make big rocks into small rocks they just watch movies and have Nordic tracks they won't they will not catch these people if they whisper in the phone and these are always these long shots you know these are stocks that are going to uh grow hair and uh make your kid have better spelling and your breaths can improve and you won't have to iron your pants you it's one of those stocks they always do everything for you but they're missing they don't have any sales yet you know that's the missing element of the story the story is sensation there's no profits here no sales yet but my God if this works if this works it's going to be the next zero Ox you know and uh and it's going to help m in space and everything it's a very very good deal now this is not a long shot this is a no shot you have to separate these out I've tried 30 of these I have never broken even on a long shot never i' made 25 30 times my money on some stocks I never thought about Sally May or mbia or Fanny May or some of the banks or Stop and Shop i' make 20 times money 30 times money I had no idea I thought the stock should go north I had no idea you look back 10 years later you say my God I made a lot of money in this thing the on I went into thinking I could make four times my money I've never broken even so don't do the long shot guys they don't work it uh the uh they simply don't work uh and again if a Stock's three and it has huge potential write down the story take the stock symbol if it's going to 300 it's okay to buy it at 15 check in later check a year later see if it's still listed see if it still get a quote on it see if they still have any orangs yet but if it's going write the story down some of these work I haven't heard yet but maybe that will work but it's worth tuning in 6 months later
댓글 0