저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD는 실적에서 PC 클라이언트 매출 58% 증가 등 성장세를 보였으나 주가는 약 10% 하락했다. 발표자는 2025년 PC 시장이 중간 한 자릿수(mid single digit) 성장할 것으로 보며, 게이밍 부문은 재고 조정이 끝나 2025년 정상화될 것으로 기대한다. 라데온 9070 시리즈 출시도 긍정 요인으로 꼽았다. 발표자는 AMD를 시장 내 가치주 중 하나로 보고 유망하다는 견해를 밝혔다.
다듬은 글
of course the obvious answer as to why everyone is talking about AMD stock is that the company recently announced quarterly Financial results and the stock price fell by almost 10% following those results but there was more to it than that and I wanted to dig deeper and look at the company's results as explained by the company's management team to try and decipher why all of this is happening for AMD the company's reporting increasing Revenue increasing earnings and yet the stock price is declining so I think this takes more analysis to get to the details and so that's what I wanted to do here in this video AMD said that Revenue in their client segment increased by 58% to a record 2.3 billion they G they gained Revenue share for the fourth straight quarter driven by significantly higher demand for both their ryzen desktop and mobile processors AMD is gaining market share at the expense of Intel in the PC market so in addition to Growing share with our existing PC Partners they were very excited to announce a new collaboration with Dell that's the first time they will offer the full portfolio of commercial PCS powered by ryzen Pro processors these are planning to be launched in Spring and that will bring the full portfolio ramping in the second half of the year as they focus on growing commercial PC share so this is computer market share for businesses and this is a market that's poised to Rebound in 2025 remember in 2020 and 2021 businesses bought a lot of computers and people bought a lot of computers because you now needed a computer not only at the office but you needed a computer at home because you were probably working from home a lot more than you were before the pandemic so you needed a home office as well as an office at headquarters and so that increased the amount of computers outstanding additionally computers last anywhere from 4 to 6 years uh the average time uh some people keep it for longer if you're not using it if you're just using it for emails and browsing you can use a computer for much longer than 6 years but if you're working and you need the computer for work uh 6 year-old computer is not going to cut it you're going to be behind the competition you're going to be losing and you're going to want to upgrade the computer cuz it's going to save you so much more time it's going to be worth it to upgrade pay the 1,000 or 2,000 or $3,000 and buy the newer computer cuz it's going to save you more time you're going to be more productive that's what's going to happen over the next next two to three years those computers that were bought in 2020 and 2021 are going to need upgrading and so it's a great time for AMD to be in this market to capitalize on this replacement cycle they did talk about 20125 and the market increase in 2025 let me share that with you so AMD is forecasting that in 2025 the personal computer total addressable Market will grow by mid single digits compared to 2024 2024 was flat to up uh small low single digits so mid single digits when a management team says this it's between four five or 6% growth that's mid single digits High single digits is 78 9% growth low single digits is 1 two or 3% growth so if you're ever reading this and you're curious what they mean by mid- single digit those are the breakdowns for the explanations and so this growth rate is less than I was expecting for 2025 and the PC market in 2024 grew less than I was expecting again so I keep thinking that this replacement cycle for personal computers is going to be better but it's looking like it's not going to be that strong at least not again in 2025 now our hopes go to 2026 for hopefully a year of closer to double digigit growth for these replacements for the PCS or maybe it'll be you know a several years long cycle of mid singled digigit growth for the PC market rather than one strong year when all of those Replacements happen still a mid- single digit growth is solid for AMD and participants in the PC market including Intel Micron and others that operate here uh certainly better than what they experienced in 2022 and 2023 when the market was down significantly so their gaming segment is still struggling uh AMD saying that the revenue in this segment declined by 59% and one of the reasons is that the semic custom sales for Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation uh they focused on reducing inventory so they were not producing uh new units of the Xbox and uh PlayStations they just wanted to get rid of what was already in inventory across their channels right across the uh partners that they sell through but AMD hopes that they believe Channel inventories have now normalized so they've gone through all of the excess inventory and they think that semi-custom sales will return to more normal historical patterns in 2025 that will be a breath of fresh air for AMD because this gaming segment has been falling fast uh for 2024 and it's been offsetting strong growth in its other segments that include the data center and so that's going to be a breath of fresh air here in 2025 AMD also saying that the first Radeon 9070 series gpus go on sale in early March and these are uh graphics cards for personal computers for uh folks that like to play games on personal computers these are highly valued and they go for hundreds of dollars and some of these uh PC graphics cards go for close to $2,000 uh nvidia's high-end GPU for personal computers can go for up to $2,000 depending on if you're buying it direct or if you're buying it on a resale because they often sell out as well these are highly regarded by Gamers and it's going to facilitate growth in that segment for AMD AMD has done a great job catching up to Nvidia in this segment Nvidia was the clear leader here for many many years and AMD has caught up to a strong second place a strong second place being a good alternative for folks that maybe they can't buy the Nvidia card because it's sold out or because it's too expensive or because maybe they prefer the AMD card over the Nvidia card for their specific use cases every use case might be specific and so AMD offers Market participants and option here with this GPU so overall um I see good news from AMD and their quarterly results and I continue to be surprised at the market reaction to the stock price and I see this as an opportunity I've reiterated the fact that I have stock rated as one of my top stocks to buy and the more I read into their quarterly results the more I dig deeper the more conviction I have about AMD as being one of the better values right now in the market
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