저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 최근 3개월간 약 27% 하락한 원인은 유럽·중국·캘리포니아 등 주요 시장의 판매 감소와 점유율 하락이다. 매출 성장률은 직전 분기 2.15%로 둔화됐고 영업이익률은 2023년 약 20%에서 7.94%로 낮아졌다. 선행 PER 86 수준으로 밸류에이션이 낮아졌다. DCF 적정주가는 기존 약 44~45달러에서 82달러로 상향됐다. 투자의견은 매도에서 보유(market perform)로 상향했으며 여전히 다소 고평가로 본다. 저가 모델 출시와 자율주행 구독 확대가 반등 요인으로 언급됐다.
다듬은 글
Tesla Shares are down 27% off the highs reached over the previous three months and many Tesla stock investors are asking why is the stock price falling I thought all I had to do was buy Tesla stock and it would become A10 trillion doll company like Elon Musk said so what's going on here I'll answer that question in this video I'll talk about the reasons why Tesla stock pric is falling and I'll also answer if I think this is a buying opportunity or what I think about Tesla stock whether it's a buy hold or a sell Tesla so you could see my calculation for intrinsic value per share for Tesla stock we'll look at the forward price to earnings ratio and I'll look at a longer term trend line of Tesla's Revenue growth its operating margins its cash flow from operations to come to the conclusion about what I think about Tesla in terms of buy hold or sell in the introduction of the video Tesla stock over the last 3 months is down almost 27% and the S&P 500 Index is down 8% in that time so Tesla stock has considerably underperformed the broader market indices in that time why is that the case why is the stock price falling well there's a number of reasons most notably because of declining sales so Tesla's UK sales fell n nearly 12% in January of 2025 even as monthly EV registrations in Europe's biggest battery Electric market surged to a record so EV sales in the UK are going up but Tesla sales are going down in other words it's losing market share people are choosing other models instead of Tesla that follows a 63% decline in January sales for Tesla in France drops of 44% and 34 38% in Sweden and Norway and 42% in the Netherlands big decreases in year-over-year sales for Tesla while the overall Market is rising in California the largest US car market with more than 1.7 million Vehicle registrations in 2024 Tesla sales fell by 12% so those are European us California numbers when we look at China Tesla sales in China are declining as well so new data for early 2025 shows that vehicle deliveries in China fell by 115% in January while one of its rivals byd its sales numbers jumped by 49.1 16% so it's losing market share in China arguably one of the more important markets it's the largest market for electric vehicles it's the only Market in my opinion where people want electric vehicles other places in the world people are buying electric vehicles because of all of the government incentives that are going in the thousands of dollars of rebates and incentives that you're getting and still in the United States let's say less than one out of 10 people are choosing an electric vehicle even with all that stimulus whereas in China it's more like three out of 10 four out of 10 people are choosing electric vehicles much better numbers right than other parts of the world where people are not choosing electric vehicles all that often so these declines in sales these declines in market share worldwide for Tesla are the primary reason why the stock price is falling and this is the case usually the case with Tesla stock when the real numbers start coming out the stock price starts to decline and then as you get further away from numbers and the CEO gets to talk about dreams about the future then the stock price rises again because it gets uh separated from reality when Tesla stock faces reality it comes down when it gets separated from reality the price can go up because the CEO is constantly boasting about this $10 trillion opportunity here this $100 trillion do opportunity there and just throwing out these massive numbers that gets people to get excited and buy into that dream where then the numbers come out and then investors are like wait a minute how are you going to achieve those kinds of dreams when your sales are declining and your Rivals are increasing and demand for your primary product where you generate 80% of your Revenue demand is falling for these products so that's why the stock price is falling and understandably so now longer term you look back at Tesla's Revenue growth rate and in the most recent quarter it was just 2.15% and that's down big time from the revenue growth rates before the outbreak before covid Tesla was growing sales at 60 70 100% right and then it had a brief Spike during the pandemic because of these unprecedented circumstances that favored Tesla because its rival automakers were not producing as many vehicles so it got a brief spike in sales but that was a shortl lasting Trend the longer run trend for Tesla is declining growth declining sales growth for its electric vehicles and it's sales overall even though the energy segment is growing very nicely it's still a relatively small part of the business overall around 10% still more than 80% of the business comes from electric vehicles a category where Tesla is growing to face more competition especially in China and it's not experiencing growth in fact in the most recent year in the most recent quarter it reported a negative 8% year-over-year growth rate in vehicle delivers similarly when you look at its operating profit margin it was Rising all the way up until 2023 and then now it's on the decline 7.94% in the most recent quarter that's down from around 20% in 2023 and management has said this is likely going to go down further as they said they were focusing on volume growth so they're going to continue offering incentives discounts promotions whatever they can do to try and sell more cars and okay with sacrificing these margins because they still have the best margins in the car industry so they can afford to continue pressuring other car makers and bringing down industrywide profitability they're okay with that they want to increase the number of units on the road and then they hope to sell software updates to those people that bought Tesla cars selling the supervised cruise control or supervised self-driving to the people that bought the cars for several thousands of dollars can really boost Tesla's profit margins in the future similar story with the cash flow from operations that started to decline as well although they've done a better job as sales are falling for electric vehicles they're also bringing down production they're not investing in new manufacturing facilities Tesla's focusing on maximizing its existing facilities which they said they can produce up to 3 million units and they're only selling like 1.8 million units right now so they don't need to invest in a new facility but that new facility was supposed to produce that lower priced model which they have been promising for about a decade of $25,000 that's unlikely to happen because they understand that demand for these vehicles is not growing and they understand that they probably can't produce a model and sell it for $25,000 without losing significant sums of money on that sale so that Prospect is also diminishing one of the more important metrics to consider when you're evaluating a business is the return on invested capital what's the company doing with the money that you're giving them and is it generating sufficient profit to justify investing in that company and for Tesla the answer is increasingly no the return on invested Capital after spiking all the way up above 20% briefly in 2023 remember these are unprecedented circumstances in 2020 right short lasting shortlived because of the paus in production of other automakers because of covid and the supply chain shortages once that eased and other automakers ramped up production the competition is very much hurting Tesla as you can see with the year-over-year growth rates and the numbers in electric vehicle sales so the Returns on invested Capital are on their way down 99.57% this is likely to continue lower as well because of the facts I mentioned earlier EV sales are falling for Tesla the companies investing in incentives and promotions and interest rate discounts and whatever they can do to generate sales but that's coming at the expense of profit so profit margins are likely to decline and unit sales are looking like so far year-to date in 2025 it looks like it's going to be down year over-year unless of course they do deliver that lower priced model in the first half of 2025 which is very likely to boost sales if they can produce that model early rumors suggest that the model is going to be priced at around $37,000 and not anywhere near $225,000 like they promised if they can get anywhere near $225,000 even if they can get it near $30,000 and sell it at 30,000 I think that's going to be a big boost for Tesla I think sales will increase in terms of unit sales overall Revenue might still decline because they're selling lower priced models but unit sales will increase which is a key for Tesla because then they can sell those services to those buyers the supervised self-driving which is a very profitable product for Tesla but not very many people are buying it and rumors are estimates are that roughly one out of 10 people are upgrading to the supervised self-driving if Tesla can increase that uptake of the number of people that are buying the supervised self-driving the more profitable sale that could really boost the company's prospects all right so let's look at valuation Tesla stock following this decline over the last three months is now trading at a more reasonable valuation it's trading at a forward price to earnings of 86 it was trading at one point a forward price to earnings of over 160 which I thought was ridiculously expensive and this is around when I rated Tesla stock as a sell and I said this was a great time for Tesla stock investors to take their profits celebrate with the money that they've made and get out while they can because it's unlikely to go very much higher from here this had all of the enthusiasm of the business already built in this was pricing Tesla stock as if it was 100% Going to achieve driverless car technology and that it was going to generate hundreds of billions of dollars from this technology and then 10 years later it was going to have Robotics and it was going to generate hundreds of billions from that it was all pricing in that Perfection into the business which is unrealistic the probabilities of those outcomes are a lot lower lower than 100% they're probably a lot lower than 50% in my opinion so a forward pric earnings of 86 is right about where the stock was trading for around July of 2024 before the enthusiasm as a result of the election and the stock price increase uh just because Elon Musk helped president Trump get elected and for whatever reason investors thought that was going to increase Tesla's profits or cash flow I couldn't see the connection and so I rated Tesla stock as a sell at that point in time I thought it was overvalued so today I updated my cash flow valuation for Tesla and I increased my intrinsic value per share previously my entrinsic value per share calculation was around $44 $45 per share for Tesla stock today I upgraded it to $82 per share for Tesla stock because the free cash flow forecasts improved most notably the free cash flow forecast around 2027 2028 2029 got a big upgrade from Wall Street analyst and so when I Incorporated that into my updated valuation the intrinsic value per share Rose to around $82 so what do I think about Tesla stock now I mentioned already I've had it rated as a sale for a couple of months now and the stock price has come down considerably and the valuation has come down considerably so I am upgrading Tesla stock today I no longer think it's a sell I just I think it's a hold or a market perform I still think this stock is overvalued and I wouldn't buy this stock at anywhere near these prices but I don't think it's like ridiculously overvalued anymore I just think it's overvalued and that's okay you don't have to sell every business that you own that's overvalued that would create too much transactions in your portfolio by buying and selling whenever a stock gets a little bit overvalued now that the price has come down and the forward PE valuation has nearly haveed I just think it's an overvalued business that I would not want to own but I don't think it's so grossly overvalued now that I would recommend selling and getting rid of it
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