If Inflation Continues To Moderate, Will Have To Acknowledge It Is Coming Down: Ed Yardeni

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Fed 금리 인하 시점과 인플레이션 둔화 전망에 대한 낙관적 시각이며, 인도 시장도 긍정적으로 본다. 인플레이션은 리세션 없이도 둔화되고 있으며, 중국과 유럽의 경기침체가 디플레이션을 수출해 미국 물가를 낮추는 데 기여한다고 진단한다. 중국은 부동산 거품 붕괴로 PPI·CPI가 음수이며 이것이 세계 물가 하락으로 이어진다. 12월 13일 FOMC에서 파월 의장이 CPI 둔화를 인정하고 물가가 2% 목표로 내려가면 내년 단기금리를 낮출 가능성이 크다고 예상한다. 다만 시장의 과도한 낙관은 경계하며, 물가 안정을 위해 긴축 기조를 유지할 것이라고 본다. 인도 시장은 정치적 안정이 지속될 가능성이 커서 긍정적이다. 유가가 배럴당 100달러 아래에 머무르고 Fed의 금리 인상이 끝났다는 점이 골디락스 시나리오를 만든다고 평가한다. 인도는 구리 등 원자재 수출국인 브라질·칠레와 달리 중국 디플레이션의 수혜자이며, 정치 안정 요인까지 더해 전반적으로 전망이 밝다고 본다.

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01. Ed yard is now joining us president at yard research Ed good morning good to have you with us here on S TV8 it's always a pleasure uh Ed uh will the jobs data change anything at all because on Friday we also had the University of Michigan inflation expectations which were softer so it kind of balanced it out a little bit sentiment wise uh so on on wednessday when the FED meets should we expect a Hold Still well I think what the stock market has learned is that we can actually see in infation moderate without a recession we don't have to have a recession in the United States to bring inflation down in the US because China and Europe are doing it for us China's in a recession Europe is in a recession as a result of that particularly China as you mentioned the China's uh PPI and CPI were both a negative territory on a year-over-year basis and China's exporting deflation to the rest of the world and that's actually a good thing for us in the the United States it's a good thing for for you folks in in India it's not good in in China because they have a uh property bubble that's burst but as a result of that their uh Goods prices have been deflating and that's helping to bring inflation down in the rest of the world so what are you expecting from the US fed in terms of commentary Ed because the indication is that the uh the FED could begin cutting interest rates earlier than what the market is anticipating what are we looking at in terms of a timeline and do you think there could be any hint of that at all in the policy this time around well I do expect a hint and I think what the Fed chair poell will say because I don't think he'll say it in his prepared remarks but he undoubtedly will get lots of questions from the reporters at the press conference on Wednesday and I think uh the reporters will say you know what's it going to take to have you folks cut interest rates and by how much and I think what pal will have to say is that if inflation continues to moderate he'll have to acknowledge that it's coming down and I expect that the CPI on Tuesday will confirm that if so then I think pal will say that if inflation continues to head down towards our 2% Target next year then we will most likely be lowering shortterm interest rates because if we don't if we don't lower the federal funds rate just keep it here and then inflation continues to moderate they would actually be more restrictive so I think he'll acknowledge that at the same time I think he's gonna want to everybody cool their Jets he doesn't want to see too much optimism about the FED lowering interest rates because I think they W want to maintain restrictive interest rates to make sure that inflation stays down and that's perfectly fine the economy remains resilient which I think it will hi Ed good morning uh what about the Indian markets well we are thumping the table because political stability is likely to continue maybe the US fed is done with regard to those hikes in interest rates and crude oil prices you know it's tried a couple of times this year to move around that $100 per barrel that's not happened so for us it's a Goldie Lock scenario that's playing out what about the Indian markets how how do you think the globe is approaching it well I think if you make a a checklist of what could go right I think we're checking all the boxes we're seeing that uh inflation is moderating worldwide and in India because oil prices are down we're saying that the fed's done raising interest rates and people are talking about how low interest rates will go next year I think uh the one thing that uh still uh is is not in favor of emerging economies generally is weak commodity prices but India is not a major exporter of uh of the kind of Commodities that um you know matter for the for the economies of China or others it's more like Brazil and Chile and you know it's things like copper and things like that so I I think India is actually a beneficiary of the deflation coming out of out of China and then of course there's the political stability issue that uh I think that box got checked as well so it's looking pretty good all right looking pretty good thanks a lot for joining in Ed appreciate your thoughts here on CNBC TV8 let's slip