저자: Develo · 한국인
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미국 증시가 두 달간 박스권 횡보 후 조정 중이며, 27% 급등 이후 강세장 지속을 전망. CPI 발표를 앞두고 단기 조정 가능성을 언급하나 매도하지 말고 하락 시 매수(웅덩이매매법) 전략 유지를 강조. 엔비디아는 인텔 AI칩 경쟁 우려에도 반도체 섹터 긍정적 시각. 장기적으로 15억 목표, 유료 멤버십 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
It has risen by over 27% in the past 100 days, and eventually, a bull market continues as shown in the yellow graph. Hello, this is Develo, will start by revealing my accounts again today. My direct investment account currently shows a 75% return and a profit of 131 million won. My domestic account shows a 67% return and a profit of 7.9 million won.
Currently, including profits from the second account, foreign exchange gains, and 18 million won from Bitcoin, I am seeing a total profit of approximately 200 million won. Now, looking at the US stock market yesterday, we can observe that they adopted a wait-and-see stance while awaiting CPI data at 9:30 PM tonight.
Also, your and my assets have likely been treading water for the past two months. It is a boring and tedious situation that is continuing. This is because the US stock market has been moving within a range for almost two months and is undergoing a period of correction. While stock prices have not fallen significantly, you can see the black 60-day moving average line rising during this slow and quiet period of correction.
In other words... If it falls just a little further, it will meet the 60-day moving average, marking the second mass timing for the puddle trading method. While price corrections instill fear and anxiety, time corrections cause exhaustion and boredom. Nevertheless, this is only a part of investing. Whether we endure this phase or not can be seen as the difference between our investment success and failure.
Eventually, as the market moves sideways like this, it will choose a direction of either rise or fall. That storm of volatility is expected to reach the Consumer Price Index (CPI) tonight at 9:30 PM. Currently, Federal Reserve members and investors are focusing on the Fed's interest rates and timing, along with concerns about a rebound in inflation.
And very important data related to this is about to be released. Currently, the core CPI is expected to slow slightly from 3.8 to 3.7, while the headline CPI is expected to rise slightly to 3.2% and 3.4%. First of all, the most important thing is that the results are better than expected. It is also very important to see whether the market fears a rise in the headline CPI or prefers a slowdown in the core CPI.
Since a storm of significant volatility could arrive today, we have already... Since you have let go, there will be no problems if you continue with the 5-line "Woongjip" investment strategy: enjoy it when it rises and buy back when it falls. Now, regarding the Top League that concluded last year, they have released a bullish forecast suggesting that the New York stock market rally could revive following this week's CPI announcement.
Tom Lee argues that a bull rally will start again because he expects the high CPI figures from January and February to stabilize starting in March. This is because while inflation figures released in January and February show a high seasonal correlation, he believes that normalization will be announced starting in March.
He assumed that while the CPIs were strong in January and February, accurate figures would be released starting in March. However, Mark Miner- Binney, a master of trend following, has issued a warning that while he forecasts a bullish trend in the long term, a correction could occur in the short term.
I, too, am currently approaching my investments with the mindset that while I forecast an upward trend in the long term, a correction could come at any time in the short term. Nevertheless, I emphasize every single day: do not sell. Just hold on, enjoy it when it rises, and buy back when it falls. Mark Miner Vinnie stated that there is a high probability of a short-term decline, noting that in a bull market, a short-term downtrend typically involves a correction of approximately 5% to 15%.
In other words, today's CPI appears very important. We need to consider whether interest rates or timing are pushed back or accelerated, and whether or not concerns about inflation becoming entrenched arise. We should trust in a short-term upward trend and proceed with "buying the dip" whenever a short-term dip occurs.
We just need to grow our assets with a long-term perspective. Since enduring with persistence and maintaining this for as long as possible is the common core element of success, we should continue this for as long as possible this year. Also, April 15th is known as the US tax payment deadline. This means there are stories circulating that US citizens have sold some overheated stocks to raise money for tax payments.
It is generally known that profit-taking sell-offs typically occur in early April due to this. Will the US stock market break its boring trading range and rise after April 15th, or will a short-term correction arrive? Currently, the US stock market has risen excessively. I am not saying it is a bubble; rather, it means it has been running non-stop in the short term.
This is a story about a 5-month consecutive rise, a 10-week consecutive rise, and a 27% increase in trading volume. This is a surge seen perhaps once every 10 years. Consequently, it is currently situated in an overheated zone. As I always say, where there is a rise, there is a fall. However, since a fall is likely an opportunity and we cannot know when it will come, we should not sell but wait; buying up when a dip appears to increase our investment capital is the best strategy for becoming wealthy in this situation.
Now, I just mentioned that it rose 27% during the last trading day. In the past 75 years, there have been only ten instances where it rose more than 25% over a single trading day. Furthermore, such strong momentum is typically found at the beginning of a bull market, and we can see that it rose by about 13% nine out of ten times a year later.
Therefore, while I ultimately forecast the continuation of the bull market, you should view this as preparing for a dip, as a short-term dip could occur at any time. Now, if we look at this in more detail, it is an incredible bull market where a rise of more than 27% over a single trading day has occurred only six times in the past.
This was one of those periods. You and I must have felt a jump in our assets during this phase. Look how much our assets have increased from last October until now. I, too, seem to have gained nearly 100 million won. In other words, we seized a rare opportunity and experienced a jump in our assets. If you look at the red graph, you can see that it rose by over 27% over the past few days, and subsequently, as shown in the yellow graph, the bull market continued.
However, you will likely see a slight short-term correction during this process. That is, while it can rise further in the long term, you just need to remember that there may be a brief correction in the short term, and you simply need to seize the opportunity with me. Even looking back at last year, a correction of about 99% occurred due to the SVB bankruptcy in March, followed by another 21% rise.
Then, a correction of about 11% came in August due to the credit rating downgrade and the war in Israel, and since then, the market has risen by 28%. Therefore, it is only natural that another short-term correction could occur at any time. If it doesn't, we just need to enjoy the rise in our accounts.
After all, this is our O-Zle Woongju investment principle. Now, there was some quite significant news yesterday: Nvidia fell 2% all by itself. Seeing Nvidia, often called the leader of the AI bull market, decline alone, some of you might be worried that the momentum of the AI rally is fading. However, the reason for Nvidia's drop yesterday is the concern that it might lose its monopoly on AI semiconductors and enter into competition.
It was actually bad news for Nvidia, not for AI. Rather, it is viewed as a positive signal for AI. Yesterday, Intel took aim at Nvidia by unveiling its self-developed AI chip, Gaudi 3. Comparing core performance, it reportedly has more than double the power efficiency of the H-100, executes AI models 1.5 times faster, and large-scale language models 1.7 times faster.
With Intel releasing such a competitive AI chip, the market is concerned that Nvidia's dominance is ending and competition is intensifying. If these concerns become reality, it will lead to a decrease in Nvidia 's revenue and margins; furthermore, since the stock price has already factored in a price increase, it may be overvalued to some extent and fall.
Nevertheless, I currently view the semiconductor sector with the view that this is actually a good thing. It’s a thought that doubles the USD and you should scoop up even more. Everyone, we have been stuck in a trading range for the past two months, and I, too, have been treading water, unable to increase my 200 million won profit.
I have been studying and investing hard, yet my assets haven't grown and have remained stagnant for two months. In fact, this is part of investing, and it is at this point that individual investors get exhausted and leave. I trust that those of you who are working hard with me for five weeks won't be like that, but for the majority of ordinary individual investors, this period of consolidation is when they eventually get tired and leave.
Most of you probably went " 48" on Bitcoin and "48" on the US stock market this time. However, I believe success ultimately lies in maintaining the right methods with persistence, even if it is boring. And eventually, we enjoyed five consecutive months of gains, taking our assets to the next level, and are now waiting for another rise.
You must continue to cut down on unnecessary expenses, put money into your stock account, and expand your practice by buying "boom stocks" with me whenever a dip comes. Ultimately, you can never become rich by thinking only about the short term. It will end up being just a way to earn pocket money. Does earning a few tens of millions of won really change your life?
In the end, it is just about earning pocket money. That is all there is to it. Ultimately, the key is to unconditionally utilize time to allow compound interest to work. If you trust me and walk this path with me, eventually, even if you withdraw money to spend, your assets will grow faster; thus, the moment of financial freedom will arrive when your money does not decrease but actually increases.
That is why I set the first goal at 1.5 billion won, and if you follow me until then, your life will undoubtedly change. Furthermore, the first goal of 1.5 billion won is absolutely not an impossible goal; rather, it is a realistic one. If 1.5 billion won is in our stock account, financial freedom becomes possible.
I, too, am investing my own precious money and racing toward that first goal of 1.5 billion won. When I first revealed my account in September 2021, I had 100 million won. Now, in April 2024, two and a half years later, I have achieved financial assets of 500 million won, combining Bitcoin and stocks.
Over two and a half years, 100 million won has turned into 500 million. I put every penny I earned directly into my stock account, and I am currently seeing a profit of about 200 million won. I am confident that it will reach 1.5 billion before 2030. However, I cannot know exactly when that will happen; this is an area beyond our control.
You and I must focus on what we can control: spending less, saving diligently, putting money into our stock accounts, and consolidating together with me. If we continue this together, we will eventually reach our first goal. It may seem obvious to anyone, but what not everyone truly knows is overcoming boredom and maintaining persistence and consistency.
I hope you overcome boredom and maintain persistence with me so that we can become wealthy and meet again. Finally, in my YouTube membership, I share my real-time buy and sell positions. We also started consolidating our Bitcoin holdings with members starting from the 50 million won range, and as for US stocks, well, there is no need to even mention them.
So many people are growing their assets together. Furthermore, I share a compilation of the essence from important reports I have selected, as well as US stock, Bitcoin, and investment materials that I personally subscribe to. I am confident that this is the highest quality available anywhere else. If you are interested, please visit my YouTube channel, click the join button, and sign up.
You can also find this in the video description or pinned comment. I will leave the sign-up link here, so please click it and sign up; you won't regret it. That's all for today's video. If you found this video .
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