저자: DevelopMong · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 증시가 이란-이스라엘 보복 우려와 유가 급등, 케이시카리 연준 총재의 금리인하 축소 발언으로 급락. 나스닥이 50일선을 터치하며 긴 음봉 형성. VIX 연중 최고, S&P500 과열 신호로 조정 가능성을 언급하나 연말 상승 가능성을 낙관. 고점 매수보다 조정 때 매수 기회로 봄. 자신은 매수 중이라 밝힘. 유료 멤버십 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
A long bearish candlestick formed, touching the Nasdaq 50-day moving average. This is Develop Mong, a long-term investor using . Wow, as the US stock market, which was surging yesterday, suddenly plummeted in the early morning, my US account saw its return drop to 70%, and my profits fell to 121 million won.
You can see that 17 million won vanished from my US direct investment account in just a few hours yesterday. Nevertheless, this is what long-term investing requires to endure. You can also see that my domestic account is currently showing a 64 % return and a profit of 7.6 million won. To look at the fortunate side, Bitcoin rose on the opposite side, acting as a hedge to some extent.
Before I knew it, Bitcoin had climbed to a 21% return and a profit of 18 million won. So, what is the reason for the US stock market suddenly turning into a sharp decline in the early morning? Yesterday, the US market showed significant gains right up until 2 AM, just before I fell asleep while searching for investment data.
However, when I woke up, the Nasdaq had turned down -1.5%. I honestly thought I had received the wrong call or that there was an internet issue. Surely I was n't the only one who thought that, right? Everyone must have been really surprised when they woke up. So, we are going to examine what excuse Wall Street powerhouses used to shake up individual investors.
There are two main reasons. First, the primary reason is concerns about a retaliatory attack by Iran against Israel. Since explaining it in detail would take a long time, I will share the key points with a short timeline: about three days ago, Israel attacked the Iranian consulate in Syria, and Iran declared a retaliatory response.
However, the market was shocked because rumors are circulating that Iran might not attack through proxy forces, but could launch missiles directly from Iranian territory. In other words, there is concern that the Middle East war might escalate. And as geopolitical risk rises, oil prices immediately surge in advance.
If you look at Brent crude futures, you can see them rise to the 90-day level in just one day. I have been telling you since last week that we need to keep a close eye on oil prices, the dollar, and government bond yields, and here, oil prices are rising particularly sharply. This oil price surged yesterday due to geopolitical risk...
As it started, conversely, we can see the Nasdaq beginning to plummet yesterday. Therefore, we must now check oil prices, government bond yields, and the dollar every day. Fortunately, the dollar and government bond yields are showing signs of consolidation or slowing down to some extent, but oil prices are currently causing trouble.
Since it is directly linked to inflation, this rise in oil prices can be viewed as a very negative factor. This is because if oil prices rise, inflation rises, and if inflation rises, interest rate cuts may be pushed back or reduced in frequency. Secondly, along with the negative news of the Iranian retaliatory attack, Federal Reserve Governor Neel Kashkari delivered another blow to the US stock market yesterday.
He had originally projected that inflation would slow down like last year, but he stated that inflation might continue to stagnate as it is now. In other words, while two interest rate cuts were forecast for this year, looking at current inflation and the economy, he implies that there might be only one cut or none at all.
The stock market plummeted even more sharply following this news. Therefore, we can see that tonight at 9:30 PM has become very important. The employment report was released tonight at 9:30 PM, and employment It seems crucial to see if slowing wage growth and the slowing unemployment rate align with expectations.
If employment figures are reported to be stronger than anticipated, it will lead to improved consumer spending; consequently, inflation will remain difficult to control, which could push interest rate cuts further back. In other words, the current market is interpreting positive news regarding a strong economy as negative news because it could delay rate cuts.
Therefore, if the figures slow down in line with expectations or are slightly worse than anticipated, the market is more likely to interpret them positively. Consequently, 9:30 PM tonight is critical, and a significant amount of real-time data is scheduled to be uploaded to the membership Telegram tonight.
Under these circumstances, the stock market has plummeted. Looking at the Nasdaq daily chart, we can see the tedious sideways trading range that began on February 19th. Yesterday alone, a long bearish candle was cast from the top to the bottom of this range, touching the Nasdaq 50-day moving average.
This has created anticipation that we are finally touching the 60-day moving average—the second mass entry timing for the "Pond" trading method that Woongjin Roy has been waiting for. I am also currently buying. I am currently watching the timing closely. This is because, for the US stock market, the initial buying timing at the 21-day moving average was the best opportunity to buy at the bottom.
Therefore, if you had bought with me at that time, you would likely be seeing very high returns in a short period. However, for those who were waiting for a deeper dip, FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) must have set in. Also, regarding semiconductors, we can see a long bearish candlestick appearing at a very strong support line, which is unusual.
Usually, when the market touches the 20-day moving average or a support line, a bullish candlestick forms and rebounds rather than a long bearish one; however, with the appearance of a long bearish candlestick this time, I am starting to think that we might be undergoing further correction. This is because if we look at the VIX volatility index, we can see it has surged to its highest level this year.
In other words, the stock market has been too quiet for the past five months, and we have already been learning that the time has come for a dip at any moment, accompanied by significant volatility. Furthermore, if we graph the 6-month average ratio of the VIX and SNP 500 to create a cycle, we see that if the market continues to rise without volatility, it eventually reaches an overheated zone where the cycle ends, and after that, a correction or We encountered a decline, and this connects to the SMP 500 weekly RSI.
As the VIX index continues to remain low, the US stock market sustains its momentum; this leads to an overbought and overheated zone, and I have been demonstrating throughout this week that a correction or a bear market typically follows in such cases. To briefly reiterate the content of my video from yesterday before the market turned into a sharp drop: seeing the market rise again, many investors might think, "Has the dip already ended?" I mentioned that this is very similar to the "Have we finished it?" line in animation.
I warned yesterday that when we think otherwise, the market can fall further, contrary to our expectations. Furthermore, looking at the SMP 500 and the High Yield Spread Ratio, we can see that it indicates overheating just like the graph of the VIX and SMP 500 ratio, which I also shared in yesterday's video.
In other words, even if it rises further, we should not be overbuying right now; rather, this is the time to wait for the dip. Finally, because both retail and institutional investors are currently viewing the market too optimistically, if we look at the data from the perspective of a human indicator...
In yesterday's video, I shared the message that the current market could become overheated. I am an optimist who believes in an upward trend. Nevertheless, I share my thoughts with you through videos to distinguish between when you should seize a major opportunity to buy based on the data I have studied, and when you should be a little cautious.
This is the reason you need to watch my videos every day. No YouTuber has ever told people to be careful when the market surged yesterday. However, that does not mean I am recommending that you sell. As you may have seen in yesterday's video, before the sharp drop, I advised those with very little cash holding, or those who wish to realize a tax-saving profit of 2.5 million won annually, to secure cash reserves or realize that 2.5 million won tax-saving profit when all indicators show an overheating trend.
If you have cash reserves that are not for spending, I told you to simply hold onto them. And this is always the same. Wall Street forces and institutions will throw out pessimistic news—such as the spread of war between Israel and Iran, the resurgence of inflation leading to a return of 1974, or the possibility that interest rates might not rise this year—to make us retail investors falter.
Nevertheless, all of this You must endure the pessimism and stay in the market with me for as long as possible, because I view this year's correction as highly likely to be an opportunity. I have been uploading videos all week pointing out that a vast amount of data indicates current overheating and that a correction is highly probable.
However, looking further ahead and within a larger framework, my current view of the market is that even if a temporary correction comes this year, it will ultimately become an opportunity to scoop up dips, and there is a high probability that the year will end with further gains. Therefore, for you and me, this current sharp decline and long bearish candlestick correction is an opportunity, not a source of fear.
Success in life is actually simple. The same situations unfold for many people. Even if students listen to the same content from the same teacher at school, academies, or private tutoring, those who are immersed and focused seize the opportunity when a new problem is released and achieve very high grades, while those who merely kill time miss the opportunity and get the same problem wrong because they did not focus.
In other words, the same situations unfold for us every time. However, our lives change depending on how we view them. Applying this to investment, it looks like this: a long bearish candlestick like today appears for everyone. You and I, who have studied hard using truly excellent materials, [are] facing this correction I view this sharp decline as an opportunity.
However, even though the same situation unfolded, most people who invested their hard-earned money without studying sold out of exhaustion during the sideways trading range, and they will likely fall out in fear during this correction. In other words, in the same situation, some accept it as a chance, while others face panic and feel compelled to flee.
I view this dip as an opportunity, and I hope you will join me in seizing it. Ironically, when this opportunity arises, it often happens just as my 140 million won profit in my US account plummets to 120 million won in a single day. That is why you must study in advance and be mentally prepared. You must cultivate a mindset where you view the loss of your precious 20 million won not as fear or stress, but as a positive development.
The most important factor is when and how much you buy. If it were me, to secure this dip opportunity, I would join my membership and utilize my services. I would comfortably receive the investment data compressed by Develop Mong, who studies diligently day and night, and use it to grow my valuable assets by referencing real-time buy and sell signals.
This is because opportunities like this in a dip do not come often. This opportunity only comes around once or twice a year. If you don't seize this chance now, the age at which you become wealthy will naturally be delayed even further, and you will end up becoming rich when you are much older. I am telling you this because I believe this opportunity is coming soon.
It seems that a proper correction will finally arrive after six months, following the market correction from last August to October. I hope you will make sure to seize this rare opportunity. I share my real-time buy and sell positions on my YouTube membership. Bitcoin also started accumulating together with my members starting from the 50 million won range, and as for US stocks, well, there is no need to even mention them.
So many people are growing their assets together. Additionally, I organize and share the essence of important reports I have selected, as well as the US stock, Bitcoin, and investment materials that I personally subscribe to. I am confident that the quality is the best anywhere else. If you are interested, please visit my YouTube channel, click the join button, or click the join link I will post in the video description or pinned comment; you wo n't regret it. .
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