저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
유동성 고갈로 나스닥·반도체(하드웨어)가 신고가를 못 가는 상황으로 진단. SpaceX·Google·Amazon·SK하이닉스 ADR 등 대규모 자금 조달이 시장 유동성을 흡수 중이며, 이란 긴장으로 유가 급등 불안. 단기 조정 경계, 장기적 분할매수 관점 제시. 세일즈포스는 부채로 자사주 매입 신호에 주목, 팔란티어는 단기 $89 부근 매수 선호·연말 $190 적정가 언급.
다듬은 글
It's not just about the end of the ceasefire in Iran or what Donald Trump just said about Iran, which I'll talk about in a moment. We had a lot of press conferences, a lot of news from Trump. and what is preventing the market from reaching new all-time highs is that someone has attached a fire hose to the liquidity swamp.
And we're going to figure out what that might actually look like. First, a spoiler: it looks like the hardware can't reach new highs. So, the NASDAQ 100 is held low. And then it also looks like other sectors are starting to intermittently try to get some kind of leadership in the sector, but there's not enough money to buy the dip anymore because the liquidity has been drained.
Cash reserves, at least according to Bank of America statistics, are at the lowest level we've seen since the dot-com bust. And that's when you actually combine savings accounts and money market funds. You know, a lot of people say, “Oh, but there’s so much cash on the side of the road. "Look at how much money is in money market funds compared to the past." But that's only because people are now putting money from their savings accounts into money markets.
So, if we take into account previous levels of savings accounts and combine these two indicators, the amount of money, cash, as liquidity, available in the economy is extremely low. What could have accelerated this? If only someone could have warned us that some crazy liquidity drain called SpaceX was coming.
Oh, wait. That's exactly what we did. Only everything was even worse than we thought. SpaceX didn't just come in to suck up $75 billion at the top of the market. They marked the peak, baby. Not only did they suck out 75 billion, but they also said, “You know what? Let's come back for more. "Let's take another $10 billion, because we can." And then, since $85 billion is n't enough, let's now take on another $25 billion in debt.
And then let's ask all the clown underwriters who underwrite these stocks to make predictions that the value of these stocks will rise to $10 trillion at some point in the long run. That's why we have high target prices, because we have to say we have a high target price because we're trying to sell the stock.
Let's also have notes like this in these same notes . Well, while we have a bullish outlook on SpaceX stock, we predict no positive free cash flow per year through 2035. So, almost ten years. Average external capital needs are $84 billion each year. We've already done 85 this year, plus 25 in borrowing, and then another 84, and another 84, and another 84, and another 84 all the way to 2034.
And if debt markets can absorb this financing need, SpaceX may have to issue shares instead, scale back its growth, or slow down its deployment. In other words, SpaceX, having grabbed a nipple that was already dry for cash, sucked out any remaining drop of milk left in this market and took Elon's throne.
But this isn't just about Elon and SpaceX. You see, there's such greed associated with this puppy that now you also have leveraged ETFs, such as the ProShares Ultra Space 2x leverage SpaceX ETF, which has literally fallen 40% since its inception. It has fallen by about 60% since its peak. But this is n't just about SpaceX, friends.
It became so sexy to be involved in these leveraged ETFs , which , again, have fallen significantly. Now you have greed when you take an ETF like the DRAM semiconductor memory ETF, and now people are doubling that into the RAM ETF, which is also down 50%. But you should know that it's not 50% in a year or two.
This is the SpaceX 2x ETF, which fell 50% in less than 30 days. This is the RAM ETF, which fell 50% in less than 3 weeks. TQQ tripled leverage and the NASDAQ 100 fell 20.5%. Maybe it's because not only is SpaceX sucking liquidity out of us that we don't have, but so is Google. Hey, how about selling $84.75 billion worth of stock?
Let's first write this down as a 75 billion share sale. We'll have Greg Ael from Brookshire Hathway, who is desperate to make some deals and show that he can get a good deal. Let's let him secure the first 10 billion, because people think, "Well, he'll never sell." Let's just give him a 7% discount, which is nothing.
"It has already evaporated." Uh, I'm pretty sure they probably hit somewhere around 360, which back then meant a 7% discount. The price is currently 358. So this discount is already gone. This is not at all the same as making deals in the days of Birkshare and Bank of America. But in any case, Google starts with 75 billion.
Then they say, “Oh, there’s so much money up for grabs. There are so many things you can do. " Let's move on to 80 billion." Wait, no. 84.75 billion. How about raising this amount? How about starting to sell off the stock at the end of June, and then throughout the third and fourth quarters , and boom, here we are.
Google shares are falling. At the same time, all the money that was locked up by venture capitalists inside SpaceX and locked up due to SpaceX's timeline will not be subject to accelerated liquidation because the stock is not going up. Stocks need to rise to accelerate the lock-in schedule. In addition, Amazon is raising $25 billion .
Hey, if everyone is going to suck this stupid liquidity, let's all join in. This cow is exhausted. Amazon wants to raise $25 billion. SK Heidex, everyone around the world is saying, “Damn, this cow looks so tasty and juicy, even though the money is gone. Let's just hook our fire hoses to this puppy." And now SK Haidex from Korea says, “Hey guys, can we join the party too?
How about taking $28 billion ?” Yes, it's Friday. This is another liquidity shortage. So many people have joined the cow , trying to suck money out of it . Including potentially anthropogenic ones that will appear soon. This open AI says, " Dude, this cow got stabbed." We can just wait until she can regain some liquidity, because this is terrible.
SpaceX, frankly , has marked peak liquidity. The pool is dry, the cow is dry , and now the barn is on fire because Donald Trump started the fire. He says, “You know what? Do you see that haystack over there ? Go to trouble. " Iran is a scumbag." Yes, that's literally what he says. You see, Donald Trump says: " The US will likely launch further strikes on Iran tonight." We can restore the blockade.
We hit them really hard last night. 40 aircraft and drones hit their targets. We revoked the oil sales permit that allowed Tehran to sell oil, which is, frankly, a big deal. You see, we were reconfiguring it because of these problems with the oil supply chain through the Hormuz prototype. We were reconfiguring our oil supply chains, the East-West pipeline, Saudi Arabia, uh , increasing production in different regions, uh, and as a way to make the Strait of Hormuz prototype less important.
And so when the prototype Strait of Hormuz reopened, you could potentially see a net increase in oil production, leading to an oil glut. Add to this Iranian oil, which was previously not freely traded and then freely traded on the market, leading to an even greater oil glut. Of course, if all of this is changed later, then expect oil prices to rise again.
Oil prices are up about 5% this morning, and now, given that we haven't seen a taco yet, even though it's not Tuesday, we'll talk about that in a moment. Oil prices have now increased by 7-8%. This is not good. In fact, the situation is getting worse, not better. Critical line this morning to check liquidity and we were bearish and very, very cautious.
Although we bought on the dip. We sent out an announcement about a pretty significant drop that we made yesterday, a six-figure drop if you want to see what exactly we're buying. Remember, you can go to meet.com with lifetime access and you'll see a six-figure drop, and there will be even more buys on the drop, because we'll talk about that broader strategy in a moment.
But if you want to be a part of it, be sure to go to mekevin.com. Join Meet Kevin membership. Remember, you get a lifetime membership to . Membership includes all courses. There may also be a tax write-off . Most people write it off on their taxes. We are considering diversification. We're talking about sales negotiations, tax write-offs , and honestly , I...I think there's so much advice and knowledge in these programs that you get one membership, uh, that I don't think there's really any way you can get your money back.
And then 10 times more. Of course, this is my opinion. Results may vary. So, going back to Iran, this cancellation apparently started because Iran allegedly attacked three ships in the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours. The interim peace agreement was declared ineffective . Other people would say that the only thing that's ineffective is Donald Trump's ability to actually force Iran to give up their highly enriched uranium in order to strike Pickaxe Mountain, where they're probably developing their bomb, while also delaying, uh, negotiations, which is obviously not good.
It's probably doubly bad that we probably can't hit Pickaxe Mountain because it's too deep, which probably explains why we didn't. Israel is deepening its attacks on Lebanon while violating the rules of the game. And now Donald Trump has returned to the fact that we are going to destroy Iran's civilizational centers, specifically targeting energy and desalination.
desalination infrastructure. So, we really screwed up Iran, because there hasn't been much progress yet on the frozen funds, the nuclear program, the enriched uranium, and frankly, Iran, to quote Donald Trump, is just a waste of time. I do n't want to deal with them anymore . They are scum . They are the biggest scum.
Nobody knows the scum better than Iran, except for the insider traders in the White House. Oh, sorry. There was no need to go there. It was too far ahead to read the teleprompter. Donald Trump. Well, okay. So , how do we reconcile all of this? Because obviously we expect tacos now, but obviously on Tuesday we all expect some kind of taco.
The price of oil is probably rising rapidly because they are covering short positions in oil. Everyone was short on oil. Er , and that's why you have a short price now. So, oil is rising because of the short price. We expect tacos. The geopolitical issue is that political issues are likely to buy on a downtrend.
The problem is that there is an acute shortage of cash. AMD lost 520. Very critical line this morning. We had a double divergence at the 5206 line, and after that, a downtrend was observed almost immediately . The market is generally red in all directions. This usually becomes a possibility, especially considering that cash is so tight.
The problem is that we still have further liquidity outflows. And here is the plan we developed as part of the live broadcast for course participants. I'm going to get a little bit sloppy here, but the plan that we've come up with is that we've come up with a plan and said that some long-term " buying on the dip" this week and maybe the rest of next week could be strategic.
Because hopefully, after the liquidity of SKH ADR, this $28 billion IPO on Friday, hopefully, we can stabilize the memory or at least stabilize the hardware sector of AI trading . If we can stabilize hardware by next week, then other sectors like healthcare and software, which have been leading the way for the past 2-3 weeks, will be able to resume their uptrend.
Unfortunately, today we have more volatility due to Iran at a time when a lot of cash has already been taken out of the market . That's why we were very conservative and talked about cash and no debt. No one goes bankrupt if you have no debts. So my strategy and I share this with everyone: I expect a full-fledged taco.
We will return to some agreed-upon solution. It's almost, uh, almost certain that we'll have tacos. This does not mean that I do not think that the nuclear threat has been resolved. I think we'll do tacos in the form of a deferral because Donald Trump is allergic to stock market crashes. This is his public opinion poll on his presidential performance.
And he likes to talk out of both sides of his mouth, where he says things like, "Well, you know, in the short term, stocks and oil could go down." Thus, he could say, "He told you so." We all know his ego is personally involved in this. Although some people, although we expect tacos , misinterpreted what I said yesterday.
Yesterday, some people said, "Oh , Kevin, it looks like you're switching to Service Now. We thought you didn't like Service Now." "I didn't like Service Now. And I want to be completely honest about this. I didn't like Service Now. So this morning we spent probably an hour live on the course, doing deep fundamental analysis of the earnings reports, the annual report, the quarterly report, uh, and reading between the lines of what's actually going on in Service Now , and I'm going to give you a little spoiler.
I still don't like it. Nothing has changed on Service Now. Now on Palanteer, because some people were confused. I guess I was clear enough. I actually think Palanteer has a fair price target for the end of the year of about $190. People hear me say, "Well, Kevin, but you said $89." Yeah, I'd like to buy Palanteer for $89 is my line.
In fact, if you look at the technical basis, you can see that $89 is my strongest line. That's what I was looking for. Purple is much stronger than blue or green. If you've been watching for a while, you already know that. So..." This is the technical line that I hope this downtrend will actually pull the stock to.
Not because I'm bearish on Palanteer, but because I'm bullish on Palanteer. So I think that's going to be the ultimate bottom for Palanteer in the near term unless the software starts to skyrocket, which there's been a lot of bounces, and I think there's no guarantee that the software is going to go up right away.
You have to be prepared for that volatility. So, uh , we have some Palanteer. I would like to have a lot more Palanteer . I don't have a lot, but I would like to have a lot more Palanteer . So, although I think its price fair- $190 by the end of the year , and significantly more over the next, uh , 5-10 years, certainly, uh, I think there's some reward for potentially expecting closer to $89.
Uh, especially right now, with this lack of liquidity in the markets and the pain that's coming from the short-term geopolitical issues, which, oddly enough, Palantire is benefiting from the geopolitical, uh, drama as their product becomes even more integrated into, uh, NATO and, uh, U.S. military alliances, well, and at the individual country level, right?
Uh, but anyway, it's Palantium. Uh , Salesforce, uh, there's been an evolution of Salesforce that's been evolving, because we've been studying Salesforce over the last, uh, maybe 3 weeks, year, two or three weeks. Uh, and there's something that the CEO did that I thought was a very clear signal. With an exceptionally clear signal.
I'm going to show you this because you know what? I'm a good guy. I love you guys. And I think you hear the talk enough to, you know, join the course, you know. You can get trade alerts there. You know, you can get all this analysis that we do every day, and people really like it because it's kind of a random listen.
You know, you also get an alpha report every morning. Uh, and we've been saying for the last 3 weeks that we need to be careful because we're waiting for this new ... industry leadership. Now let's look at Salesforce. There's something you need to know that a lot of people don't pay attention to. Uh, let's look at it.
Where is my Salesforce stock? That's it. That's what they discuss in their earnings report. And there's a lot more notes before that, but this is a really important line, and you get that as a bonus for staying in this video. so long. Thanks for listening to me. Debt proceeds. Okay. And share buybacks.
That's for the three months ending April 30th. In the three months ending April 30th, Salesforce issued 20 bonds at about $170 to $210. Oh, look at that. They issued $ 24.8 billion of debt to buy back $27.2 billion of stock. So they actually bought back more stock than they issued debt, but they actually borrowed over the next 10 to 20 years, $25 billion , to buy back their stock now.
And what the CEO says about that on the earnings call, you should read. You can read the rest of our notes on that . But it's a very interesting signal. It's almost the opposite of the signal that I'm getting from the Service Now leadership. And then, of course when you look at the fundamentals of Salesforce, whether it's churn or no change in churn, which is also the opposite of what we're seeing in Service Now, whether it's margin expansion, pricing, balance sheet, etc., look at that fundamental analysis.
Join mekevin.com; you know the speech. Now, the bottom line of all of this is that we're unfortunately breaking through a bad level on the 10-year Treasury note right now. That's not good because it's also happening at the same time that our labor market is softening a little bit again. We had about 6 months of softening at the end of last year.
Then we had a recovery for the first 6 months of this year, which was great. But the last ... The jobs report was a little bit terrible. It said that we've lost jobs over the last year . And the only reason the unemployment rate looks low is because the labor force participation rate is falling. If that level was stable, our unemployment rate would be over five, maybe even close to 6%.
And people would be screaming about a recession . But, you know, the manipulation of some of the numbers in terms of how we count participation conveniently hides the fact that we've lost a million people in the labor force over the last year. And unfortunately, breaking that level, which we have to get back to, regularly leads to these little breakouts above 4.57.
We always pull back. It just adds more pain to the market. Now, I personally think you could spread your buys on the dips over the long term . The short term, though, I'm cautious and bearish on the short term, but these are buying opportunities for the long term. .
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