저자: NourielRoubini · 외국인
요약 보기
로루비니 교수는 미국 대선 이후 분할정부 가능성이 커져 대규모 재정부양이 줄어들 것이며, 경기는 V자 반등 후 둔화되어 이중 침체(더블딥) 위험이 있다고 진단했다. 미국 대선 결과와 정책 환경: 바이든이 승리할 가능성이 크지만 상원은 공화당이 유지할 가능성이 높아 분할정부가 예상된다. 바이든의 법인세 인상(21%→28%), 해외이익 과세 강화, 고소득층 증세, 자본이득세 인상이 무산되면서 단기적으로 주가는 상승했다. 재정정책 전망: 바이든 측 부양안(향후 4년 약 2조 달러 부양 + 2조 달러 인프라·그린뉴딜)이 축소되고, 공화당이 레임덕 의회에서 추가 부양에 소극적일 것이라 교착 상태가 예상된다. 이는 시간이 지나며 시장에 부정적으로 작용할 것이다. 경기 진단: 미국 일일 코로나 신규 확진자가 약 12만 명으로 늘었고, 유럽은 4분기와 1분기에 이중 침체에 들어갈 가능성이 크다. 미국도 방역 강화 대신 민간의 위험회피로 소비·고용이 줄어 3분기 33% 성장 이후 4분기는 2% 내외로 둔화될 것으로 봤다. 고용 평가: 고용지표가 개선되고 있으나 실업자 1000만 명 이상, U6 실업률 약 12%로 여전히 높다. 3~4월 실직자 1000만 명 이상이 아직 복귀하지 못했고, 복귀 일자리도 시간제·긱워커 중심으로 질이 낮다고 평가했다. 리스크: 충분한 재정부양 없이 불확실성과 취약한 고용이 이어지면 V자가 U자, 나아가 더블딥으로 전환될 위험이 있으며, 이는 중장기적으로 주식시장에 부담이 된다고 주장했다. 단기 조정보다는 중기적 하방 위험에 무게를 뒀다.
다듬은 글
let's talk about all of this as well as the economic data that we are getting and we're going to do that with two important people here at yahoo finance first we welcome into the stream professor nuriel roubini he is professor of economics at new york university's stern school of business he is also the ceo of roubini macro associates llc we also welcome back julia laroche she is a correspondent here at yahoo finance she has actually invited dr roubini to join us so i'm going to throw it to you to lead off the question thank you so much adam and nouriel it's great to have you on as always a lot to unpack here uh you put out a piece ahead of the election it was pretty prescient so we'd love to kind of explore your views as to what's transpired here transpired here and what are the implications for the economy uh well it looks like it's going to be divided government will by then most likely winning the white house but the senate may remain republican unless those two run-off elections in early january in georgia would lead to a 50-50 in which case kamala harris could break the tie but i would say for now that doesn't look likely now in terms of the economy implies that of course the amount of fiscal stimulus is not going to be as large as the one that you would have had under a blue wave uh biden wanted over two trillion dollars of a stimulus plus another two trillion of spending on infrastructure and on a green new deal over the next four years so in the short run of course this week the stock market rallied because they believed that divided the government is good and why they believe it is the right the government is good because uh biden wanted to increase taxes corporate taxes from 21 to 28 close a bunch of loopholes especially on foreign profits of big tech and pharma raise taxes personal income on those that are wealthy about 400 000 and increase the capital gains tax so in the short run divided government implies that you have less fiscal stimulus and you don't have a tax increase however in my view the economy is weakening we've forgotten this week that we have 120 000 new cases of covet every day and in the case of europe my estimate is that with the rise of cases in europe europe is already going into a double deep recession in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of this year i think at this point with the new lockdowns you're seeing in europe we're gonna see a double deep recession in europe in the united states even if you don't have draconian lockdowns like those they're gonna have in europe the endogenous behavior of the private sector when you have a rising covet cases means people are more risk averse more uncertain they spend less they save more they do less capacs they'll do less employment so we're going to see that while the third quarter look like a v-shape recovery 33 percent the fourth quarter is going to be barely two percent even less than that and that's analyzed means that within the quarter the growth is 0.5 when you're two percent annualized so i think that actually the economy is to be weakening because you don't get enough of fiscal stimulus that you need and that could be bearing negatively on the market over time not in the short run but over time once we realize that we're having a v that becomes more like a u with a risk of a double d procession okay so a few things there it looks like um in your view you could get less fiscal stimulus you also talked about the rise in cobit cases and europe some of the economic data out of europe already starting to roll over and then of course the rising cases here in the u.s and um outlining your view of the economy of a double dip here um when we've talked several months ago we've talked about this kind of risk of a greater depression and i know you have brought up various um letters and i believe the last time it was a double dip recession was the risk that you saw noria when you look at that i guess that would be the w shape does the the latter half of that could that be worse than the first dip we saw would like to kind of double click on that as well well you know the freefall that we had in the first quarter and the second quarter of this year was massive because we had to shut down economic activity altogether in first in china then in europe then u.s and globally in order to flatten the curve and reduce the spreads of the virus uh then we had a very sharp recovery in the third quarter even if we have a slowdown or even a double dip in my view we're not going to have the free fall of economic activity we had in the first and the second quarter of this year but uh you know whether it's going to be a mediocre dynamic you with unemployment rate remaining high and the massive defaults and bankruptcies or whether it's going to be something more severe like a double d procession the difference is relatively small meaning we're not going to have 30 growth anymore it was just a one-quarter event because after a free fall in this second quarter we had the recovery and the annualized rate they looked like 30 even if within the quarter was only seven percent but i expect me my baseline a mediocre anemic subpar below trend recovery that means that lots of people are gonna suffer let's not forget there are still over 10 million people that lost jobs in march and april who have not regained those jobs and once they're again jobs they're going to be part-time gig workers without full benefits low wages uh freelancers contractors the corporate sector wants to have flexibility that means that these precarious jobs that will become the new norm leading to economic fragility is more uncertainty more income and wealth in security just going off of that i mean that's interesting what you're saying about the labor market because i think that was a lot of questions here going into what we just saw today i mean it was a better than expected report i was going through a number of analysts commentary saying that that the jobs picture is actually better and we're pacing better than what the fed was even expecting an unemployment rate level it sounds like you're pouring cold water on that though well you know the economy is improving we're creating jobs but the reality is that you still have first of all over 10 million unemployed people and if you use the u6 definition of unemployment rate that is the one that includes discouraged workers that have left the labor force or those who are working part-time but would like to work full-time that number is still 12 that is huge by any standard so is there an improvement in the economy yes is it really for those that have precarious jobs a good economy no and is there a risk that now without adequate fiscal stimulus and even the fed even jay paul says let's err on the side of more stimulus rather than less because at worst the economy recovers stronger sooner and that's fine but we're gonna have now a situation in which you're not gonna have a fiscal stimulus in a lame duck congress and once uh by uh trump realizes he's not gonna be president he has no incentive to give a trillion or two trillion dollar stimulus to buy them remember when obama came to power during a severe recession there was not a single republican who voted for that stimulus this time around that are probably gonna say we're not gonna help buy them let the economy rot because we're gonna have a chance in 2022.
so we'll have gridlock like the past we're not gonna have enough of a fiscal stimulus the column is to weaken and that's going to be something that eventually is going to bear negatively on the market
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