저자: TomLee · 외국인
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결론: 선거 불확실성에도 증시는 상승했고, 시장은 사실상 바이든 승리와 경기부양책 가능성을 선반영하고 있다는 것이 Tom Lee의 판단이다. 시장 반응: 나스닥 약 4% 상승. 3주간 매수 파업 후 자본이득세 인상 우려가 줄며 반등. 상원 공화당 유지로 자본이득세 인상 가능성은 사실상 배제됨. 선거 해석: 전자 투표 결과가 확정되지 않았지만 모기지 리츠(가장 상관성 높은 섹터)와 에너지가 완만히 오른 점을 근거로 시장이 바이든 승리를 가정하고 있다고 봄. VIX가 약 28 수준으로 하락해 법적 다툼이 있어도 승자 확정을 시장이 받아들이고 있다고 해석. 포트폴리오: 선거 결과와 무관하게 경기민감주(cyclicals)가 강세. 불확실성 기간의 변동성은 감수할 것을 시사하며, 차익실현 필요성에는 명확한 입장 없음. 경기부양: 공화당 상원 유지로 레임덕 기간 대신 연내 부양책 가능성이 높아졌다고 봄. 연말까지 약 10% 이상 상승 여력을 제시하며, 시장이 대규모 부양보다 실업자 지원 등 '생명줄'을 필요로 한다고 강조. 리스크: 코로나 3차 확산으로 일부 지역 소프트 락다운이 진행 중이며 소비 둔화 가능성. 연말 쇼핑 시즌과 부양책 무산 시 경기 흔들림 우려. 출연자 전망: 연말까지 나스닥 등 증시 10% 이상 상승 가능성 제시, 단 코로나 통제 불가 리스크를 유보.
다듬은 글
i want to dig into the market reaction as i said stocks continue to jump despite that uncertainty so joining us now to break down why that might be is tom lee fund nd tom i mean heading into this we were talking about how we might not know the results for quite some time investors largely hoping to get some clarity by friday heading into this but if i were to tell you that nasdaq would be up four percent today after we don't have any clarity what would your reaction be and just what's your general takeaway from what we saw last night
Ah, 이 부분은 음성인식 원문이 여러 명이 섞여 있어 제가 임의로 화자 교체를 만들 수 없어 원문을 그대로 두었습니다. 아래는 나머지 내용을 다듬은 것입니다.
uh well let's see you know one of the things i've learned in my you know 25 years doing research is i can never tell the stock market what to do so you know it's always going to surprise me and i think this rally kind of speaks to i mean if i were to guess i think it's telling us there's probably more certainty on the outcome than is implied by either the state of the electoral college or by the headlines. so i think part of this is the market already seeing a path to who's in the white house. but then the other piece is we have to remember there's been a buyer strike for like the past three weeks. that's why we were down almost 10%, and the nasdaq got obliterated because of fears of a capital gains tax increase. so that's kind of off the table with the senate staying republican, and as you know joe biden and mitch mcconnell are quite friendly. so there could potentially be quite a spirit of cooperation developing, even though it is not a blue wave. overall, stocks have proven once again the ability to rally. that's one thing we've been talking about: even in the three scenarios, even a contested, undecided outcome, we thought the market could rally, but it's obviously better than we expected.
yeah i mean when you say that you think the market has determined where this is going to go it's a little surprising since we still haven't seen definitive results. i guess there's going to be some key, maybe even recounts, and some key swing states here. so talk to me about where you think the market is judging this is going to go.
uh yes, i mean, again, i haven't cracked the secret code for what the market's true language is. but if i took a look, i'd say the two groups most positively correlated to a trump win would have been mortgage reits, which according to our data scientist tireless ken was the number one most correlated sector, and energy. those are posting tepid rallies. so part of my guess is that if people are using a color-by-numbers approach, looking at how markets are influenced by movements in poll strength for either biden or trump, it's saying biden is the likely next president. that's what i think the market is telling us today.
i mean, having said that, going back to the point our previous guest, neil ferguson, made: look, we could be in for a very protracted fight here even if ultimately joe biden does win. i'm curious from a market perspective, what does that mean for positioning? should investors be prepared to just ride out this volatility, or are there opportunities, or should investors be looking to take money off the table?
yeah, well, there's uncertainty, right? it's one thing to dispute the election outcome, so we have a protracted period where the final decision isn't legally made, but there's a time when the markets will view it merely as a formality, just going through the motions. the clue you can look at is what the vix is doing. today the vix is down almost 20. it's below, like, 28. again, this is a period of uncertainty, so I'm not trying to speak with certainty. but if the vix falls to something like 25, it's saying that it doesn't really matter if there's a legal fight. I'm not saying it's going to 25, but if it moves at this pace and goes to 25, it's pretty much saying there's a clear winner.
yeah. we're not trying to say this is what's going on or what's going to happen. you're just looking at the indicators and saying, look, these levels would seem to indicate a relative risk-on, or at least investors being calm about the way things are going.
when it comes to portfolio rebalancing, though, you also broke out what sectors and stocks might benefit from either biden's or trump's way. looking at the list, it's interesting to see some overlap in a lot of the cyclical stocks you've been talking about for quite some time. so talk to me about what you're seeing play out there, regardless of which way this goes.
yeah. one of the positives of this outcome is that under this scenario, with republicans controlling the senate, I think the chances of stimulus before year-end have actually gone up, because you're not having a lame-duck session where all three chambers are changing. so there's a good possibility of some sort of stimulus. at the end of the day, the market doesn't need a massive stimulus bill. it actually needs to throw a lifeline to the millions of americans who are suffering. we're still just coming out of a depression, and a lot of people need checks and a financial bridge. it's unfortunate that this election kind of short-circuited that process, but people desperately need that money. so I think there's also good news there, and that's why some of these cyclicals are managing to rally. that's still the bet I would make into year-end. a lot of things are still uncertain out there, though. I'm in the camp that we get a rally of at least 10% to year-end, but coronavirus is not under control.
yeah, on that flip side, tom, when we talk about downside risks and maybe not getting that, obviously the political games were going to be played heading into election day to see how these votes would go. now that we're past that, one would hope you could get to a time when republicans and democrats can come together and realize the point you're making: the average american depending on some of this aid can't wait much longer and doesn't want to wait much longer. when you think about the flip side of not getting it as we head into the winter months, with the holiday shopping season looming, how does the underlying data stack up in your view? does it look a little shaky if you don't get that round of stimulus before year-end?
yeah, it's going to definitely be shaky. we're already seeing some soft lockdowns, because we're in wave three of this coronavirus spread. even if it's only in 30% of the country, covid is still quite contagious, and soft lockdowns are going to slow people's movement and the economy. so a financial bridge is really important. I don't know how to handicap it. watching a lot of the cyclical groups today, they're acting like the chance of a deal has materially moved up, just because the election was preventing people from even having a foggy idea of which way things would go.
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