저자: DanIves · 외국인
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결론: 애플은 슈퍼사이클 초입이라 이번 분기 아이폰 부진은 일시적 눌림이므로 매수 기회라는 주장. 애플: 아이폰 부진은 중국 등의 일시적 조정. 사전주문이 전작 대비 2배 이상이며 홀리데이 시즌 1,000억 달러 분기 가능성 제시. 시장의 과잉 반응으로 보고 매수 관점 유지. 아마존: 코로나 관련 비용 40억 달러보다 AWS 마진 압박과 성장 둔화가 핵심 우려. MS Azure가 기업 워크로드에서 점유율을 얻고 있으며 GCP도 추격 중. 실적 기대치가 완벽에 가까워 주가 부담 존재. 넷플릭스: 요금 인상 발표는 강한 콘텐츠 경쟁력과 낮은 이탈률을 바탕으로 한 것이며 매출 증가 요인으로 평가. 애플 인수 전망: 190억 달러 현금을 보유한 애플이 영화 스튜디오를 인수할 가능성이 높다고 전망(향후 3~6개월 내). 라이온스게이트, 소니, MGM 언급. 우버·리프트: 캘리포니아 Prop 22 결과가 비즈니스 모델에 실존적 위협. 리프트는 매출의 16%가 캘리포니아에서 발생. 우버 글로벌 노출은 3~4%로 상대적으로 작다고 봄. 다음 주 결과에 따라 모델 전환 가능성. 알파벳: 디지털 광고 턴어라운드로 실적 상회. 반독점 소송(DOJ)이 내년 주요 위험이며 민주당 정권(블루웨이브) 시 분할 압박 가능성 언급. 빅테크 대 베ltway 싸움이 내년 핵심 테마. 출연자 전망: 애플에 대한 긍정적 시각 유지, 아마존은 기대치 부담, 우버·리프트는 Prop 22 결과에 따른 리스크 강조.
다듬은 글
it has been a big week in tech we've been talking about it all morning long from the section 230 hearing to a myriad of earnings from amazon facebook twitter apple here to break it all down for us is dan ives of webbush dan good to see you went through your note which was quite the thesis this morning lots to cover i want to start with apple um they beat i mean they did beat on the top and bottom line for the most part uh iphone sales we know we're weak but one would expect that given the fact that the iphone 12 was coming around the corner do you believe we're still in a super cycle here yeah i mean i think the super cycle is just starting i mean that's why from an investor perspective this quarter really takes a back seat to what's going to be the super cycle hitting in the starting the holiday season we think you could be looking 100 billion dollar type quarter and that's why you know a knee jerk i think a bit of an overreaction in terms of the iphone miss it's a pause especially in china ahead of what i believe is a super cycle and i can tell you from a check perspective pre-orders up more than 2x its predecessor so we'd be buying on this type of weakness dan curious on uh on amazon so much of the focus this morning on amazon is the four billion in related covet expenses i guess it's a big number investors have to focus on that but to me uh the real story is the margin pressure in amazon web services and the slowing growth you cover microsoft is microsoft taking share from amazon or is this a more reflection of hey it's challenging out there uh from an economic standpoint yeah youth to nail on that i think that continues to be a bit of a concern i mean if you look i think you're starting to see some share shifts toward microsoft and azure because now you're really getting into core enterprise workloads right and they're starting to gain share look this is a big enough ocean for more than two boats you're even seeing gcp google gain traction there but i do think they got to put more expenses more sales and marketing more r d into those initiatives but ultimately take a step back i mean we are in really what's a golden period for cloud computing and that continues to be really a two horse race between aws as well as azure and i think the amazon numbers price to perfection in terms of expecting a quarter but even when you look at the guidance i think that's an sbs sandbag special then i want to get your thoughts on netflix quick here because uh they didn't come out with earnings what they came out with was an announcement saying they're going to raise their uh subscriber plans we're going to be paying a little bit more for our netflix still less than hbo uh streaming service might we add but raise it nonetheless is this going to be a disaster are people going to leave the platform or will they pay up if they're in a position of strength and they know when they test prices especially in this coveted pandemic it's something they can increase by prices more if they wanted to and that's why it all comes down to the kingdom content and if you look at churn it's really been impressive what they've been able to do and despite competitors from all angles disney apple as well as many others you know coming across the globe and i think netflix is just continues to be in a position of strength there and then putting together that price increase i think it's some investors want to see you're just giving they know that they could do that and that's going to be just another sort of added talent to the top line i want to ask quick we had talked in the past about maybe apple buying up one of the uh movie studios to help it beef up its content as it now fights in this streaming battle do you think that apple might do that with 190 billion dollars it's sitting on right now yeah i mean that continues to be the missing piece because they've essentially built a castle a mansion with no furniture in terms of content and that's really going to be the driver you know i would be shocked if they do not buy a studio over the next three six months we've got lionsgate sony mgm 824 that ones that would make sense because from a content perspective that's what's missing for apple on the streaming side and that's why the investors that's what they want to see them do they do that stocks up on that move dana california uh has prop 22 on the ballot uh i've been following lyft cfo brian roberts on twitter the past few days and he's been tweeting up a storm i i should be really running the company uh if this goes against uber and lyft how detrimental could it be to their financials but also the stock price it would be a massive gut punch really a business model change especially when you look at lyft 16 percent of revs comes from california and that's why when you look at uber with the gay economy i mean so much is riding on prop 22 because it's not just california it's potentially pandora's box and what that could do to other city states even you know countries following london i think also watching this closely i i view it as right now it's a contain risk because i do think they pivot on the business models depending on the outcome next week i do think with some more exposing uber cause uber when you take it down to global exposure three to four percent of revenues but this is look this is a fork in the road situation it continues to be a head scratcher in terms of eb5 but i think a lot riding going into next week on prop 22.
that's why brian and lyft are so focused on this you know this is an existential business model threat dan what about um alphabets google alphabet is one of the only big tech stocks actually higher this morning they also had blowout earnings but they're coming under a lot of pressure on the hill with this antitrust case now against them do you think that's going to impact the business going forward at least in the short term yeah and they've had as opposed to other fang names they've actually had headwinds on digital advertising look how you turn the corner that was huge relief for the street but ultimately from a doj and anti-trust i mean that's the big worry going into next year remember a blue wave i think just adds to some of the the threats and theme from a breakup perspective they and facebook continue to be front and center and i think i'm very close to watching the doj suit because this is not a light matter and i think this comes down to the beltway versus big tech battle which is going to be a big theme into the next year with alphabet front and center are you surprised that the stock is being bit up like it is today it's being bit up because it's viewed right now anti-trust is to contain risk if you look at those numbers those were even better than whisper expectations turn the corner in digital advertising which is key because it shows maybe some business model changes into some sort of semi-normal and you compare that with the likes of amazon apple which of course didn't meet expectations with the street looking for perfection all right dan ives of webbush thanks as always good to see you
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