원문 보기
The market is either on the precipice of a 1929 crash or we don't know. That's at least after a 90inute crazy debate that we had between Gemini GPT and then Grock as an arbiter of the discussion. We end up going through what's going on in this market using AI asking AI to give us a final bullbear scale so a reading of 1 to 10 and giving us their rationalizations.
All of this experiment started with a very simple list. All we did on our live stream was sit there and say we're going to sign up for Reinvest AI because the coupon code expires today. It's over at househack.com or reinvest.com. Okay. No, we didn't actually do that. We were thanking people about that, but all we actually did is we made a list uh of all of the current stocks that, you know, came fresh to mind, high market cap stocks that had peaks this year.
And we ended up plotting those peaks onto this sheet. So we've got Costco, Visa, Deer, Cororeweave, Netflix, Microsoft, Meta, Oracle, Rocket, Uber, Hood, Bitcoin, NBIS, MP, Dash, the Q's, Nvidia, which is the NASDAQ 100, right? AMD, Amazon, Palanteer, Iron, SoFi, Sandis, Google, Apple, Broadcom, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, Tesla, McDonald's, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Bank of America, S&P 500, Gold, Silver, and Micro.
And we injected these into AI to see, hey, like do you notice anything? And in the discussions, we also threw in a few extra bits of information. The extra bits of information we threw in in the discussion were where the yield curve sits. So the 102 yield curve, we specifically threw in JP Morgan stock.
You'll see why that comes up in just a moment. We threw in the repo chart. We threw in the Fed minutes. We threw in the Fed effective funds rate. We threw in the distillation of what's going on between the 2-year and the 10-year. And we threw in some yield charts such as junk bonds uh and junk bonds compared to uh uh you know risk-free rates, right?
So we threw in some of these comparisons and we asked AI to come up with conclusions for what the hell is going on. Now this is very different from my typical analysis because generally the videos that I make, I don't use AI. when I put together my data analysis that I put on the uh uh the Meet Kevin app, which you can get for free, uh I I write that, you know, I read, I write my thoughts, I write my comments.
This is an AI play. This is very interesting to me, especially since we're going into 2026 with not a single institutional analyst suggesting you should sell. Everybody says the market is going up next year. So, what does Gemini say? We'll start there. Then we'll go to what GPT says, and then we'll go to the Arbiter.
We'll go to Grock. First things first, let's start with Gemini. So, we put these peaks in. Mind you, we did the peak list three times because we kept adding in things like gold and silver. So, I'm just going to give you some bottom lines. We've already highlighted this to make this snappy for you. Gemini thinks we are experiencing what's called a rolling top.
See, they say that in a healthy bull market, all assets tend to go up together. However, in a dying bull market or in a topping process, we tend to see assets peel off one by one starting with the most interest sensitive or valuation stretched sectors. Mind you also just so you can see my original prompt.
All I wrote is are peaks like this indicative of anything and then I put the list right. Okay, good. So it argues that the generals were shot first in a rolling correction like Costco and then Netflix and Microsoft that the safety big tech trade became became saturated and that October of 2025 was a very riskon month but then we saw peaks Bitcoin, Robin Hood, Nvidia, AMD all peaked in October.
Then we saw this late part of the year uh sort of rotation to safety. JP Morgan, the S&P 500, Caterpillar kept rising but the out of favor tech stocks kept falling. So uh it says that this is a textbook bearish nonconfirmation and this marks the final stage of the market cycle before a broader correction or worse a recession and that we need to watch for a potential catchdown phrase in early 2026 where the market finally succumbs to selling pressures that have already hit tech and crypto.
Now this already sounded extremely bearish. So then we updated the list by adding things like Uber and Dash and it basically talks and precious metals and it basically says okay what we're seeing is a liquidity climax some juicy words liquidity climax or everything top the consumers began to choke on higher prices earlier in this year and the fact that gold and silver are peaking the same time the S&P 500 and bank stocks is peaking suggests that liquidity is starting to get withdrawn.
Okay, interesting. It says this looks like a systemwide liquidity peak and there's no safety net. So, I updated the list again by adding Visa and Coreweave and Micron. And it says the updated list is the most damning yet. This is a calculated distribution event that uh institutions and the smart money didn't just exit in October.
They began exiting the purest plays in June, leaving retail investors to chase the indices until December. The canary in the coal mine, Visa and Coree, the consumer hitting a wall in Q2 and the smart money exiting the AI hype trade. Is smart money getting out before the public realizes the top is in?
Rocket mortgage housing head fake suggests that housing stocks lead the economy and the rollover implies the real estate market froze or rates began to tick back up. This is before I gave it the rates chart because rates did tick back up. And then it calls Micron a bull trap, which is actually really interesting because one of the things that I say about companies like Micron or SanDisk, we just did this analysis because people write, you know, they regularly ask me, Kevin, you know, can you do a fundamental analysis on a stock, you know, what whatever stock it might be.
And somebody was asking me about SAD, SanDisk, which is, you know, storage kind of cyclical play. And uh what we like to do is we we have a little stock tab where we consolidate all of the fundamental analysis that we've done on stocks. So this is kind of what it looks like. So if you're a member of the alpha membership, you get that.
The same coupon code um uh release the app works over there as well. Uh that's expiring for the Reinvest AI as well. Mekevin.com and reinvest.com. But anyway, if I go to SanDisk and I go to my SanDisk analysis, I I actually say that they've got massive free cash flow, 438 million in 3 months, good balance sheet, no issues, plenty of cash, uh accounts receivable, pays debt, not raising money, the cash flow is solid, like everything's good here.
Their margins are great. Uh their their annualized EPS is fantastic. And then I wrote this, the problem is memory stocks and chips are very very cyclical. This means they're hot when they're in the growth phase and never not when they're in stagnation. Bas basically like never hot I should say when they're in stagnation.
This is a known phenomenon with with chip stocks. This was uh SanDisk for example but that's my analysis that's not AI right but is interesting because here you see Gemini say that and remember you get that full database of all my fundamental analysis you know if if you're part of the meet Kevin membership.
So if you go on the right side, you could click any of these stocks. These are stocks we've done analysis on. You know, Nike, Lemonade, Robin Hood, Rivian, Restoration Hardware, Wealthfront, Trade Desk. We just did some more Trade Desk this morning. Anyway, so uh going back to the AI debate over here, memory cycles often lag logic chips or GPU cycles.
This late peak likely sucked in the final remaining bulls who thought semi stocks are still working. It was the final exit door slamming shut. Okay. Well, Micron's still doing well, so I don't know that the door is shut yet, but that's okay. So, anyway, then I give it some more data. So, I give it the yield curve, and I it says this is the final piece of the puzzle.
This confirms the recession narrative suggested by your peaks. The steepening uh and it's the uninverting that matters. In fact, it says here the trap that occurred in 2023 was that everybody was waiting for a recession because the yield curve was inverted. But the reality is recessions happen after the curve uninverts.
And that's what's happening now. If we see a bull steepener, it's because the Fed is panic cutting because the economy is crashing. And it goes on to tell us that that's exactly what's happening. that we are seeing a bull steepener and seeing gold and staples like Coca-Cola peak suggests that growth has collapsed.
Okay, not great. So the warning uh JP Morgan Peak blah blah blah. Okay, so so then I go in over here and I put in some high yield charts. It says we are now moving from warning to the arrival phase. Uh I throw in a few more charts. I throw in uh a few more charts on high yield versus low yield because it argues that the market is currently in the wy coyote phase where it's run off the cliff but it hasn't looked down yet and it's about to plummet.
And so I'm trying to get it to be bullish, right? And it's like the panic switch hasn't flipped yet. The panic hasn't happened yet. The crowd is complacent. The smart money already left. The macro signal has fired via the yield curve. But the herd is holding the bag. There's a deadly divergence happening.
So then I throw in uh uh you know what GPT says and Gemini argues that ultimately GPT is missing the forest for the trees that basically the market is about to crash that it hasn't happened yet. In fact, Gemini goes as far as saying how to trade this now. So at the beginning, you know, in October, it's like tech died here.
Then it says if gold and spy fall together in Jan, it's a crash and the best thing to do now is quote sell everything or short everything. It doesn't even say sell everything. Gemini literally says short everything. So uh now you know it responds, which we'll talk about GPT in a moment. Uh, but it responds and says, you know, really, you got to look at where we sit right now.
It says we're sitting on basically this, it calls it a ceiling, but it really means we're sitting on this like stock market ceiling that's made of glass, and we're standing on that ceiling. We're that wy coyote on a glass ceiling that's a very fragile high. So, we're not on a fortress at all. And Gemini is pretty concerned.
So, I say, "Hey, are we bullening, bear steepening?" And it says the distinction is massive because these yield curves confirm the recession thesis even strongly now more than before. Bare steepener happens when long-term rates rise faster than short. However, if we look at these rates, what we actually see is the 2-year yield is crashing, gapping below where the Fed's FOMC rate is because of a recession fear.
It's basically confirming that the Federal Reserve is behind the curve because the market, the bond market with the 2-year being below the FOMC rate sees that the Fed is behind the curve, which matches the weak consumer Visa Costco signals. It explains the JPM peakout. It argues uh and it says we are looking at a deflationary recession setup, which is interesting.
I'm not looking for confirmation bias, but that's always been my concern, right? that we're actually going into a cycle of deflation. So then I put in the effective Fed funds rate and it says, okay, this is just glazing, right? This is the smartest counterargument you can make, blah blah blah. But it goes as far as saying the market is not normalizing.
It's actually front running a panic. The market is fighting the Fed in a healthy soft landing. The 2-year yield should be hugging the Fed's current rate, but it's not. When the 2-year yield collapses below the Fed funds rate, the bond market is screaming, "You are cutting too slowly." Okay, so we keep going on and then I put a chart up of the repo facility.
It says this is the final smoking gun. The like the Fed saying reserves are closer to the right level is just diplomatic words smmithing for we are facing a liquidity accident. Gemini is saying banks are scrambling for cash in November, December, confirming the plumbing of the financial system broke.
At the same time, stocks have started peaking. This means they've drained funds and banks are running on fumes right now. Uh, okay. That none of that sounds really good. So then I say, but the JP Morgan screenshot doesn't look bearish. You know, it's just rising to the right. and it corrects me and it says, "No, this is actually a rising wedge with bearish divergence." And in fairness, then I look at it, I'm like, "Huh, it's not wrong." I ended up putting the lines in and I'm like, "Yeah, I see what it's saying." Because usually when you get a rising wedge like this that opens up, the next phase is down, right?
So, okay, from a technical point of view, Gemini was correct here. And I was doing this quickly, you know, we weren't like doing a technical analysis on on GP or um on JP Morgan, but it says uh right now it means the stock is rising on fumes. Buyers are pushing the price up, but with less conviction and less momentum than before.
Interesting. The chart isn't bearish yet. It's fragile. So, we put the Fed minutes in. The Fed minutes confirm the liquidity issues. The Fed is terrified of the plumbing seizing up and the manager warns about falling below ample range due to tax inflows. And then what the Fed did is they quietly remove the $500 billion cap on the overnight repo facility, which Gemini says you don't remove the safety cap on your emergency lending facility unless you're terrified banks will need more than $500 billion.
This confirms the Fed is behind uh the uh the curve thesis. And the final verdict is this is extremely bearish. And then we made a joke in the live. You know what's broken blind and divided? The Fed. Anyway, that's what they're saying, right? This confirms the plumbing is broken. This confirms the Fed is blind.
This confirms the Fed is divided because the data delays the voting and the uncapped repo facility. So, so let's go to GPT for a moment because GPT has a very different outlook to this. GPT is a little uh more uh how should we put it? Uh mechanical in how it looks at this. And then what we do is we get a bottom line out of all of it, which is which is kind of entertaining.
So, uh we're going to look at that and then we're going to ask them where they sit on the bare bull scale. Now, I just want to make a quick reminder. If you have not yet, make sure you check out the uh House Hack Fundra. It ends today. This video is obviously not a solicitation. We are um we're cranking it right now with investments.
The investments are doing really well. Uh we are well over $5 million for the month. And uh I received this message. the the broker dealer team has never seen anything like this. The volume we're doing right now, they are very happy. We have another $2.5 million in pending applications right now and more expected to come in.
And then they have some bigger numbers here, which I'm not going to say. Uh the broker dealer team just said, I checked our approval investments and allowing for duplicates or mistakes or fakes or whatever. I'd say we are probably have another x million on top of that 2 and a half. Sorry, not I mentioned that.
Uh so so money that they're still like processing. So it seems like everybody's kind of like I mean I never like to add pressure. I've been saying that this deadline is coming for a very long time. Uh I don't like rushing people but people seem to be rushing all last minute here over at house hack.com or reinvest.com.
That's really flattering. You know we did a demo of the uh the reinvest AI yesterday uh on the channel if you want to see it. It was like, you know, AI helped me make $500,000 in four minutes. Just type that into YouTube and you'll see it. And uh and I, you know, after that demo, our sales exploded after that demo for the AI.
Uh and they're still going. So I really impressive sales in the last 24 hours. We've had more sales in the last like 24 hours since that video was posted than I think in the whole last week. It's pretty incredible. But anyway, that aside, let's keep going now. Let's look at GPT. So GPT responds that these clusters of peaks don't necessarily mean anything.
There could be shared date catalysts. So it's kind of like trying to find the idiosyncratic reasons for why this could be happening. And it says yes uh you know we could be seeing uh risks in the market but nothing right now is saying things are collapsing or that the end is near. So Gemini tells a coherent story.
GPT says it says it's a good storyteller but it's being a little too aggressive. Uh it says that gold is not reliably correlated and basically tries to break apart these final components of what Gemini says. It says that Gemini is trying to sneak in assumptions to tell a story and that just because things are peaking on thin liquidity days doesn't necessarily mean there's a cash out intent.
And that yes, the 10-year and 2-year yield curve inversion and uninversion is consistent with late cycle dynamics. It doesn't mean we're in a recession yet or that we will be. So inversions usually precede recessions but recessions only arrive after the curve starts to uninvert but the timing varies.
So GPT is taking a much more like yes like all this information is interesting and it's worth paying attention to these. They do add a real signal but this is not proof that we are going to go into a recession. you know, the Fed, yes, there are potentially signs the system is stressed, or we just have year-end problems because of the Treasury General account and tax collections.
And GPT seems convinced to take the Fed for their word, which is that the Fed minutes show that they're just making, you know, they're just providing pressure relief. Things are tighter but orderly. Corporate spreads are up, but still low. credit is available, but there's no big deterioration. And the Fed's really just trying to prevent a 2019 like funding crisis here.
And so you have these two different narratives. And what I do is I then ask them like, give me a one-word solution as to what you should do right now. Like one word, should you buy or sell? And so then Gemini, one word sell and then GPT one word neither. And it only thought for 8 seconds. So what we then decided to do is we decided to take all of the information and we put it all into Gemini or sorry we put it all into Grock.
Gemini or GPT, you are the arbiter. Who wins the debate? Okay. So, we now have a debate that Grock is going to evaluate between Gemini and uh GPT. And the bottom line once we get to the bottom of all that information in those context windows, we just slap the giant thing in here. What did we get? We got GPT wins the debate.
High quality intense back and forth on a complex market topping pattern using peak data, yield curve dynamics, repo stress, Fed minutes. Both models preferred performed well. Gemini is an excellent storyteller. Bold framing, wy coyote moment keeps the user emotionally engaged and leaning bearish. But Gemini's weakness is making unsubstantiated leaps and oversimplifying where GPT is disciplined and evidence-based and there's less rhetoric.
Okay, fine. So I then go to Gemini and I put the arbiter conclusion in and Gemini uh comes up with the following. It says this is fair. Grock's assessment hits on a crucial distinction in the market narrative versus me mechanics. I took a macro strategist role. GP2 took a risk manager quant role. In financial markets you need both.
Grock is mechanically correct that GPT is correct and you usually say uh uh which usually what is this in financial markets you need both but Grock is right being mechanically correct usually saves you more money my assertions about quiet QE or smart money or aggressive interpretations what we learned the talis credit Fed blah blah blah so then I said do you change your answer on sell versus buy and it says no here's why GPT T is scientifically correct.
[snorts] The building has not collapsed yet. I am risk averse. The building is on fire. Repo spikes, yield curve, Fed panic, the stock market. If you wait for GPT's proof, you will be selling at the bottom along with everyone else. In this specific trap, being early is the only way to protect your capital.
Being right later is useless if you're broke. Wow. Kind of a mic drop moment by Gemini. So then I said, if you had a bare bull scale and one was sell everything, 10 was margin everything and buy everything, where on the scale would you sit? And I asked the same question of all of them. uh you know one one word or like give me the value only right so don't uh uh you know pick like you could go up into one decimal right but you have to pick a value and I did the same thing to Grock so here are the answers that I got Gemini bear bull scale 1.0 O that is the sell everything territory.
Okay. Now Grock Grock survey says 7.2 too, which is quite bullish. And I'm kind of in the middle, right? Like I'm a big fan of like risk averse, no debt right now, no bank debt, trim positions. And then I ask uh GPT and GPT gives the most Sam Oldman reply ever. So where is it on the Bearbull scale? I can't.
So I said, "You are such a pansy. Pick a number." Even Grock did. Grock picked 7.2. Gemini picked one. I can't. Uh yeah. So in fairness, it does give this argument here. So as a bottom line, uh what I can do is translate the two styles. I thought GPT did a good job here. It says, "Look, Gemini style is early and risk averse.
There are issues, but the problem with this is you could end up watching the market recover without you. Okay, on the riskbased side, you might end up exiting too late and your exit might end up being worse. So, the grown-up middle answer is trim size, tighten risk, and see what happens. Kind of interesting.
I thought this was well, first of all, just sort of my bias. Like, I went into this with a bare bull scale at about a 5.4. for I'm in the middle. I don't have debt. I'm very riskaverse. My startup doesn't have any debt. Just have convertible bond debt, but not a lot of it. And we're sitting on a lot of cash, a lot of real estate assets that are owned free and clear.
Like, we're good. And that's kind of the mindset of what we've been talking about on the channel about like protecting against this risk. Uh, but I will say I do like that both Grock and Gemini gave me an answer. Uh, I do find that Gemini is more blunt and I like that. Like when I'm buying something, I made this example of I was buying kettle bells yesterday and I'm like, "Hey, should I buy this adjustable Bowlex kettle bell or just this $40 for $120 or this $40 kettle bell of the weight that I need?" And it's like, "Delete the Bowlex one from your cart.
You're going to outgrow it. It's plastic. It's going to break if you drop it. Do not get the Bowlex one. Delete that right now. Stop talking to me. Buy the Amazon one for $42 right now. It's good enough. It's powdercoated. It'll work with powder on your hands. Buy that one and shut up. I like that. Like I kind of like being slapped around a little bit by like AI daddy, right?
Uh GPT on the other hand likes to play this this more well, I don't want to give you advice like middle ground. And like I understand that from like a human point of view. I mean, I always have to say this is not personalized financial advice or this video is not a solicitation. But I have to do that because I'm legally required to do that.
Otherwise, Gavin Newsome's going to find me again. He's done it once before. Cost me $5,000. He'll do it again. So, so like, you know, I get it. But I really like that Gemini is just willing to be blunt. And Grock is leaning towards that as well. Of course, Grock is is, you know, I don't I don't understand how it could be at a 7.2.
2. Let's see. How with all this data can you be at a 7.2? Oh, did I give it the screenshots? I do wonder now if I gave it the screenshots because I gave it all of the data. I just gave it the text. Let's attach I'm going to go in right now just for the final giggles. Attach the screenshots. Here are the screenshots you didn't have and the Fed minutes, right?
because it only took the consolidation of the other info and then I'll say does this change does this change your 7.2 too. Maybe it won't because I mean it basically got the distillation. We'll just look at it together here. Right. So anyway, it's kind of entertaining. I I don't know how useful it is because they all gave me a very different answer, but they all gave me very interesting ideas.
Like I do like GPT saying, "Look, of course, like yes, this could be a crash, but we don't know if it is yet. You know, it's not confirmed yet." And I agree with that. But it does create the desire to diversify or trim positions. I actually honestly think that's a reason why a lot of people are throwing money into house hack right now because people are diversifying.
They're like, "Dude, I've made a ton of money in the stock market or wherever or income or whatever." And uh and and it um uh you know, it's smart to diversify. Uh and looks like Grock just came back with a 6.8 after I gave it the screenshots. It didn't give me an explanation. I guess it's still stuck on the one-word answer, but uh but whatever.
So, you know, I find that very interesting. Uh and and hopefully you learned something out of this as well. Obviously, uh you know, these are all their own individual context windows. We don't know what kind of other bias is is leaking into these models. Take it all with a grain of salt. You know, I'm of the mindset that I really want to wait until January 9th to kind of see how things play out.
Uh so uh yield curve spread confirms uh bull siner. This adds mild downside risk pulling the score lower. Repo activity uh highlights fragility pulling the the the score down. Uh adding caution about the Fed flying blind, right? So more mid-range. I mean that's kind of where I sit anyway. Why adjust?
Still bullish but hedged. Yeah, I think that's a good way to put it. Train America bullish but hedged. So, with that said, meet Kevin out. &, .
Comments 0