저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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테슬라 2024년 4분기 인도량 495,000대로 전년 동기(48만 대대) 대비 증가했으나 주가는 발표 후 약 6~7% 하락. 하락 원인은 실적 악화가 아니라 과도한 밸류에이션(동종 자동차사 대비 10~15배, 빅테크 대비 4배 이상)과 기대감 조정. 마진율 개선(매출총이익률 19.8%, 영업이익률 10.8%)과 0% 금융 등 인센티브 속 리스 비중 급증(2%→5~6%)을 언급. 사이버트럭 성장 부진과 저가형 모델 출시(상반기 예정)가 향후 성장 관건. 장기적으로 로봇·자율주행 기대가 다시 밸류에이션을 끌어올릴 수 있다는 관점.
다듬은 글
we got some massive news for Tesla stock investors this morning as the company reported quarterly and annual production and delivery numbers those numbers sent the stock price down as much as 7% on the day of the announcement in this video I'll go over the specific details of the release and what it means esla reported deliveries of 4955 70 for the most recently completed quarter and for the year they delivered 1,7 89,000 now the headlines I'm seeing this morning are that for the first time in Tesla's history the year-over year delivery numbers were down when you compare 2024 with 202 3 but they were only down very very slightly I don't think that's the right perspective to take in this most recent announcement if you compare Tesla's fourth quarter numbers with the fourth quarter numbers of 2023 you'll notice there was considerable growth year-over-year just in the most recent quarter in fact in the fourth quarter of 2023 Tesla delivered 48457 vehicles and in this fourth quarter of 2024 they delivered 495,000 so an increase year-over-year of about 11,000 units that was the good news which I'm not hearing too much about in the articles that have come out so far talking about Tesla's announcement of course the stock price is down on this news over 6.6% down but I think it's a matter of perspective here with Tesla if we saw these numbers from most other car companies their stock prices would have likely risen as a result of these numbers but the fact that Tesla's stock price fell doesn't have so much to do with the actual numbers because the actual numbers are really good Tesla demonstrates really good numbers when they report their figures the trouble with Tesla is that the valuation of the business is already extreme so investors are viewing Tesla with a certain set of glasses on that if there's any kind of imperfection in Tesla's numbers the stock price comes down because it's already so expensive it's selling at valuations that it's more than 10 or 15 times as expensive as other car companies so you can't really compare Tesla to other car companies because it's 10 or 15 times more expensive than those companies and then if you compare Tesla with other tech stocks and you say Okay Tesla is a tech stock that happens to sell cars even if you look at it from that perspective Tesla is more than four times as expensive as the most valuable tech stocks and the most successful tech stocks including Nvidia Apple Microsoft Etc so that's the trouble with Tesla and that's the primary reason why the stock price is down it's not because the actual delivery numbers were bad the actual delivery numbers don't warrant a stock price decrease of this magnitude but it does point to further evidence of the company's overvaluation and so the price kind of adjusts lower as some investors who were maybe neglecting the overvaluation and maybe neglecting the actual tangible numbers that Tesla delivers and looking more at the hype and the enthusiasm and the momentum and then you get a reality check when the numbers come out and you're like oh wait a minute okay let me calm down a little bit here because this is not an AI company yet the company doesn't yet have driverless cars on the road they don't yet have robots they don't yet have all of these things that they're promising that they have been promising so does it really justify a super premium super expensive valuation maybe not and so this is a bit of a reality check for Tesla stock investors and maybe you know a week later when these numbers are behind us and we can focus more on the intangible things the longterm future things that are 5 10 15 years in the future the valuation might rebound and start to explode higher again this is usually the cycle I see with Tesla stock is numbers come out price comes down further away we get from Facts the more the price goes up the more there's focus on the facts the more the price comes down so I mentioned that these quarterly numbers were not bad in fact they were in my opinion they were good quarterly results from Tesla 495,000 in deliveries 463,000 so quarter over quarter there was a 33,000 unit increase in deliveries and remember in the previous quarter they demonstrated significant improvements which surprised me in their gross profit margin which jumped to 19.8% in the third quarter of 2024 up by about 200 basis points from the 17.9% in the third quarter of 2023 and their operating margin also jumped by over 320 basis points to 10.8% from 7.6% so if you think about those huge increases in margins when they delivered 30,000 fewer units in the previous quarter and now you add the 30,000 units the fourth quarter numbers are likely to be strong in terms of margins now I know there's been a lot of news about all of the incentives and promotions Tesla's been adding to try and sell vehicles you they're they're offering 0% financing when the interest rates are you know close to 10% when buying a car if you think about a $40,000 car purchased financed for 5 years if Tesla's offering 0% financing that's the equivalent of giving consumers a $4,000 per year discount over five years or in other words $20,000 discount because 10% financing on a 40,000 000 purchases 4,000 in interest costs annually over 5 years that's $220,000 if Tesla is telling consumers will let you have 0% that's basically a $20,000 discount on the purchase and they've been doing that for a while now and their margins remained strong in the previous quarter despite all of those incentives so with the 30,000 increase it's likely to remain strong in the upcoming quarter a couple of things of of concern is the leases leases almost doubled in the most recent quarter 5% and 6% for the model 3 and then for other models and if you look back last year it was only 2% and 3% that were leased this is likely because consumers are unable to afford those cars nowadays with the prices of inflation soaring and the cost of living rising in all other categories and so these attractive lease deals are getting people to buy these cars so the model three went from 2% leases to 5% leases and then the other models jumped by double more than double as well to 6% and then another thing of trouble is the other models which includes the Cyber truck it's not really growing and that's troubling to me because this year they added the Cyber truck whereas like last year you didn't have the Cyber truck so you have an extra model and you're still not growing deliveries I would have thought that the Cyber truck would have ramped up considerably by now but it's still not and it seems like the price tag is too much for consumers to bear so it'll be interesting to see if Tesla talks about a lower priced cyber truck in the upcoming year I know they've said they got a lower priced model 3 coming out uh a lower priced model model Q actually they called it coming out in the first half of 2025 that should help facilitate growth but overall I think the actual numbers were strong for Tesla and the stock price decrease is only because the valuation was so expensive to begin with it wasn't because the numbers were bad it's just Tesla is a very very very expensive stock and so when numbers come out the price kind of adjusts back down to reality and then as you get further away from numbers and you start to think more about and Tesla investors start to think more about the huge potential for robots in the future the massive potential for driverless cars in the future again huge massive these are not numbers right these are just uh adjectives when those start to come back into play that's when the valuation can get extreme again
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