저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
2024년 마이크론은 상반기 급등 후 급락해 연간 보합으로 마감. 매출은 290억 달러로 회복, 데이터센터 비중 50% 이상으로 증가. 그러나 설비투자 확대로 2024년 잉여현금흐름은 1.2억 달러에 그쳤고, 2025회계연도 33억 달러 예상. 선행 PER 7.4배로 저평가, DCF 적정가 138달러 대비 주가 85달러. 결론적으로 2025년 매수 가치가 있다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Micron Technology gave investors a real roller coaster ride in 2024. I'll explain to you exactly what I mean in a moment. But for investors looking at this company and trying to figure out whether to buy its stock in 2025, I will provide plenty of details to help you make a decision. In this video, I'll give my opinion on whether to buy, hold, or sell these stocks, and share the research findings so deals to buy now.
Therefore. That's what I meant when I said Micron Technology gave investors a " roller coaster" in 2024. At the beginning of the year, stocks went up and up and up. By July 2024, they had grown by almost 75% since the beginning of the year, and everything was looking great. And then, like on a roller coaster , there was a steep decline.
And now they have fallen by one-tenth of a percent. As of December 30, with one trading day left until the end of the year. So the price went up and down, and at the end of the year, the results for Micron Technology shareholders remained at about the same level. The company's 2024 earnings looked great.
Revenue over the past 12 months has recovered to $29 billion after a cyclical low in 2023. Management forecasts further growth next year. However, management has been a bit more aggressive in capital spending than investors would have liked. Micron, like Intel, is investing billions of dollars in expanding production.
Investors didn't like it. But Micron is doing this because the prospects for its products look great. Demand for its next-generation HBM (high-bandwidth memory) technology is rabid, and the latest products are completely sold out. So the company sees the future and invests ahead of time . In addition, the company receives billions of dollars in subsidies from the US government to help finance production expansion.
So if you're going to expand, now is a great time to do it : you're getting billions of dollars in government support. You see growth in the semiconductor industry due to the development of artificial intelligence, and demand is skyrocketing. So, this is a great time to invest in expanding production.
Unfortunately, from the investors' point of view, they don't like it. Investors are always wary when they see capital spending increase at the rate Micron is doing. I mean, they spend more than 30-40% of their income on capital investments . This is a very large amount. Typically, companies spend no more than 10% of their revenue on capital expenditures.
At Micron, this figure reaches 30%. So all of these capital expenditure investments had a significant impact on the company's free cash flow in 2024 . In 2024, they generated only 120 million in free cash flow. Wall Street's forecast is that the company will generate about $3.3 billion in free cash flow in the 2025 fiscal year, which ends on August 31, 2025.
This amount is expected to increase to 6.8-8 billion in 2026, then decrease again in 2027 to 5 billion, and then increase again in 2028 and 2029 . The company's new manufacturing facilities in Idaho and New York, it seems, if I remember correctly, are the states where they are expanding their manufacturing facilities.
They are expected to become operational only in 2027-2028. Then they will start working and producing, generating cash flow for the company; because until then, the company just invests, invests, and invests. And then, in these years, they will start to return these funds, and hopefully more than they invested.
Cash flow from operating activities has now increased to 10.35 billion over the past 12 months. And I would n't be surprised if the peak of this cycle surpasses the peak of the previous cycle in 2019, because in this cycle, components supplied to data centers and devices, peripherals , such as smartphones, laptops and personal computers, require more components.
So, for AI improvements to work, more chips, more memory, and more storage are needed. And in this cycle, Micron will see more revenue and profit from data centers optimized for AI. Micron's memory chips, HBM memory chips, are a key component in its latest quarterly earnings report, Micron reported that for the first time in the company's history, more than 50% of its revenue comes from the data center segment.
Whereas before, it was a smaller component of their business. It has now grown to more than half of the business, and this segment is growing rapidly. Instead, the consumer sector of the business is the side that is experiencing difficulties. Smartphone sales are not growing very much. If they do grow, it's only by a few percent.
The same goes for personal computer sales, they are growing only slightly. We are waiting for an update cycle that could drive growth in this category, but we will see. Whereas the data center segment is already growing rapidly and is expected to continue growing for at least the next 3-5 years. So, the company's balance sheet is in relatively good shape.
The company has $11 billion in long-term debt and about $7 billion in cash. And, as you saw, it generated over $10 billion in operating cash flow. So in about a year, she could pay off all of her long-term debt if she wanted to . But more often than not, companies the size of Micron prefer to have some debt because the cost of debt is lower than the cost of equity.
Therefore, they like to finance the business at least partially through debt, rather than entirely through equity. So, with that in mind, the pressure I mentioned at the beginning of the video has led to Micron stock selling at its lowest valuation in a very long time, trading at a forward price/ earnings multiple of just 7.4, which I think is relatively undervalued for this business.
This is just one view of the situation. Another way I estimate value is with a discounted cash flow model for Micron. I made this discounted cash flow valuation model on December 9th, updated it today before posting, and it remains relevant. The intrinsic value of the company's stock, according to my calculations, should be $138, but it is trading at $85 per share.
So, in my opinion, she seems underrated. Do I look at it based on discounted cash flow valuations or based on forward price/ earnings multiples? So is it worth buying Micron stock ahead of 2025 ? In my opinion, the answer is yes. I think these stocks are worth buying in 2025. Hello everyone. Many of you have asked about my investment strategy, and I am pleased to announce that I have written a book, now available for purchase, that describes my six-step investment system .
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