저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
6월 첫 주 고용지표 발표를 앞두고 실업률·고용 수치가 인플레이션 기대와 연준 금리 결정에 영향을 주며, 시장 반응은 예상치 대비 서프라이즈 방향에 따라 달라진다고 설명. 고용 예상치 약 65만 명. 과도한 미스(50만 미만)면 인플레 기대 하락으로 상품·암호화폐 하락 가능성, 큰 상회(35% 가능성)면 인플레 기대 상승, 암호화폐 반등 가능성 언급. 개인 AMC 약 6.2만 달러 익스포저, 단기 변동성 큰 옵션 포지션 보유 및 숏 스퀴즈 기대 표명.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me kevin here tomorrow is a very big day not only is it friday and it's the end of a short trading week it is the first trading week of june we'll get to see what happens with amc is it going to end the week strong are we going to see the squeeze actually start getting squeezed but folks it is jobs day and that's what we have to talk about now along with a little bit of talk about amc but first i want to give a shout out to a fellow youtuber who will be fighting mayweather this weekend logan paul in fact if you want to watch the mayweather versus logan paul fight with myself and the folks in my campaign in our campaign studio aka the campaign garage check out the link down below go to meetkevin.com fight meet kevin.com fight and if you donate a chunk to the campaign we'll get to have a pizza party together this sunday in ventura california check it out link down below let's now talk about jobs jobs data last month came out as a complete disaster we were expecting 1 million jobs to be added we only had 266 000 jobs added it was the biggest disappointment we had seen in a very long time it started leading inflation expectations to almost immediately tilt downwards because the fear was that wait a minute if the economy overheats too quickly if the economic engine starts ramping up too fast and we get to maximum employment too quickly that means rates are going to get bumped sooner because remember the federal reserve's dual mandate price stability price stability is what the federal reserve achieved when they ruled a money printer okay when they went nuts back in march of last year and said whoa don't panic don't panic keep the banks open keep the credit flowing keep everything going we'll just backstop everything we'll literally bail out everything we'll even buy bonds of corporations which recently the federal reserve has started to unload because they realize they're not needed anymore to provide this kind of price stability that's one part of the dual mandate but the second part of the dual main date has to do with maximum employment and maximum employment has recently been more defined as all races and sexes this is important because you don't just want max employment for white males but you also want max employment for women blacks hispanics asians everyone for example right now while the average united states unemployment rate is around 6.1 percent black unemployment is around 8.6 it's much higher than white unemployment so these are important things but the point is the federal reserve has a dual mandate price stability and max employment and tomorrow's number will be heavily scrutinized by the federal reserve which anything that gets heavily scrutinized by the federal reserve is something that could guide their interest rate making decision will be heavily scrutinized by markets and this is where you've got to know what the expectations are so that way as soon as that jobs data comes out we will have the answer now i will be live streaming the second this job data comes out this means when it comes out at 5 30 in the morning california time tomorrow i will be awake to provide you exactly what that jobs data was the second it comes out and here's the current expectation so we're going to grab the ipad here and we're going to write down the current expectation so we are expecting i guess i should start with last month okay the last month expectation was 1 million we got 266.
what happened on a big miss well on a big miss we had inflation expectations go down and we actually didn't have a horrible uh cycle for tech tech and some of the consumer discretionary stocks they kind of traded sideways maybe slightly up we had the big meme movement and i don't like to say me movement i prefer to say momentum movement that's just what the media uses so the momentum movement right this has kind of been characteristic of the last month and we've actually also seen some commodity prices go down some of that does have to do with china trying to do whatever they can to fight commodity prices from going through the roof because they have been going through the roof for the past six months it's been crazy but we've also seen cryptocurrencies come down now some of these things could have potentially just happened because of the weight of many shorts in the crypto market or or a lot of short selling in other parts of the markets so this is not all directly correlated to jobs with certainty these are just things we saw happen over the last month inflation expectations i should say expectations went down we had tech attacking consumer discretionaries kindness trade sideways mean momentum stocks went up we had commodities go down and crypto went down okay so what are the expectations now well right now we are expecting let's see i've got a note here that says we're expecting the current survey to come in at 650 000.
so 650 000 is the expectation for jobs so we're going to write that down here 650 and i would say if we get anything within about a hundred thousand of that so 550 to 750 the market will probably respond in a relatively benign manner we might see a little bit of movement here a little bit of you know minute to minute movement in certain stocks but i don't think we'll see any kind of longer run movement however if we dramatically miss again and we come in with something i would say under 500 000 so if we came in with like a 499 or 450 which i don't think will happen i i personally think will probably be somewhere in like this range here which might be like 625 to 550 something like that we'll see hopefully we're booming in some regards but if we're in in let's let's make this very clear if we come in super super low so we come in like 450 or below again uh again i would expect inflation expectations to go down now some people wonder like wait a minute wait a minute why would inflation expectations go down doesn't less people working lead input costs to go up so inflation is very very complicated and even though that intuitively makes sense it's just not what we're seeing in the market we're seeing inflation expectations go down and that's because we're not expecting the economy to overheat everything right now has to do with economy overheating not so much with supply chain pressures when it comes to jobs don't get me wrong supply chain pressures are massive but they're already starting to alleviate neo xbang and other companies are already starting to mention where they're starting to see a relaxation and the amount of supply chain constraints so that's it's going to be that's going to be transitory and i hate to use that word because i know the fed uses it we don't really believe the fed all the time but anyway if we get a super low shocker i would expect inflation expectations to go down and honestly it could be good or neutral for tac consumer discretionaries and we might see a little bit of the same i wouldn't be surprised if we saw commodities go down even more and it's possible that crypto could go down too because the lower our inflation expectations generally the less people are investing in crypto as a hedge against inflation right just something to think about now if we get a more moderate response i think we might just kind of continue the same flatish trends that we've had so if we get a response that's somewhere within this range over here we'll probably get some more of a muted moderate response the bigger catalyst and this is the one i think we really pay attention to is what happens if all of a sudden we play catch-up from last month and we get this massive beat now this is possible i'm going to say this is probably about 35 right here and that we're probably 65 leaning towards the lower side uh and and that's because unemployment money is still flowing in most states right now and most states are still getting into that reopening ramping right so i could be wrong here we could get pleasantly surprised tomorrow which is really good for our gdp it's good for our economy but it's probably going to mean that inflation expectations are going to go up it's very possible that because of that we could finally see a little bit of resurgence in crypto prices it's also possible that maybe there'll be some pressures on commodities though this is going to be less clearly linked we know mostly because supply chains are starting to catch up on spreading out their commodity demand and we're starting to see those supply chains repair a little bit it is possible if this number really really really comes in high that you could see tech consumer discretionary some of the higher valued companies drop on on that news because that'll create that fear again of oh no no no we're overheating because in in very simple terms here you want to remember that overheating so i'm going to put over heating i guess i just wrote the whole thing out overheating is generally seen as bad strong is seen as good and a weak or sort of uh under heating under heating or cool is also seen as bad right because this right here under heating this is deflationary and generally this is bad too strong over here this is bad because this is where you get into that sort of hyper inflationary direction you don't really want to be here you really want to be in this well quite frankly two percent inflation category where you have strong growth which strong growth usually rides on top of inflation so you have this like three to five percent gdp growth per year riding on top of about two percent inflation this is where we want to be this is why you've got such a bizarro market to understand because it's not it's not binary it's not left or right and it's it's really a lot of it is well to be determined by how people react and how markets react and then how traders amplify that reaction so it's a little bit of a mess all the way around uh but uh look i i mean tomorrow's gonna be a big day we're gonna cover the gdp data i'm sorry we're going to cover the jobs data right away we're going to cover what happens with amc uh quick update on amc just so you have it as well oh and remember that floyd uh mayweather and a logan paul fight if you're interested in coming to hang out with us in person we'll have a little pizza party i know it's pricey but check out that link down below it's a donation to the campaign so uh it's definitely going towards a good cause but check that link out down below regarding amc i do want to just provide a quick update that uh i have about 62 000 worth of exposure obviously uh amc is down about 18 today and it's down in the after hours another like eight percent so obviously you know in the short term you don't feel too good when you got a dip like that especially when you've got uh some plays that are a little shorter term uh my uh options will get me into a 52 000 hold position at 49 per share on amc and then i do have some 40 calls as well these are very very very risky plays and uh they they will either do very well or not so well and so we'll see what happens the good news is i'm very i'm bullish i'm bullish on the short term because we haven't even seen any kind of squeezing begin so it's just going to be a matter of a waiting game it's a big big big big waiting game so we'll see what happens folks thank you so very much for watching if we can outlast the short sellers that's a good thing
Comments 0