저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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2013년 5월 Chamath Palihapitiya가 쓴 글을 낭독한 과거 Bitcoin 강세론 회고 영상이다. 결론: 2013년 당시 1% 자산을 비트코인에 배분하는 것이 합리적이라는 주장으로, 가격 예측은 아니다. 주장 1 - 금융 신뢰 붕괴: 2008년 금융위기 이후 금융기관 신뢰가 크게 떨어졌다고 주장한다. 리먼, 베어스턴스, AIG, JP모건 런던고래, 키프로스 사태 등을 예로 든다. 주장 2 - 비트코인의 기능: 2008년 출범 이후 전자적·탈중앙 화폐이며, 총 발행량은 2,100만 개로 제한된다고 설명한다. 채굴은 금 채굴에 비유된다. 주장 3 - 인터넷 유추: TCP/IP가 인터넷 초기 성장에 필수였듯, 비트코인이 금융 송금의 프로토콜 역할을 할 수 있는 초기 단계라고 본다. 당시 시가총액은 약 20억 달러라고 언급한다. 주장 4 - 가치 추정: 금 시장 규모(약 8조 달러)를 기준으로 비트코인 개당 상한을 약 40만 달러로 추정한다. 당시 가격은 약 130달러였다. 주장 5 - 리스크 인정: 범죄 악용 가능성과 규제 필요성을 언급하면서도 금지 불가능하다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 비트코인이 금 대체 또는 기축통화 역할을 할 수 있다는 장기 강세 견해다. 단기 가격 예측은 없다. 사회자 발언(추가 설명): 현재 시점 기준으로 과거 발언의 적중 여부를 되짚는 형식이며, 구체적 단기 전망은 없다.
다듬은 글
3 2 1 Welcome Back to the breakdown with me nlw it's a daily podcast on macro Bitcoin and the big picture Powers shifts remaking our world the breakdown is sponsored by crypto.com and nexo.io and produced and distributed by coindesk what's going on guys it is Thursday November 26th Happy Thanksgiving so yesterday did my episode about the most bullish signals the most bullish facts the most bullish events from the year to bring to the Thanksgiving table as you talk about Bitcoin and the crypto industry as a whole part of the way that I sourced that list I obviously had some ideas going in but I always like hearing from you guys about what you think is most interesting what you think the strongest arguments are and when I asked earlier in the week on Twitter what people thought the most bullish Arguments for Bitcoin were to bring into the holiday one of the things that people suggested a number of times was to go back and read bullish articles from 2011 2012 2013 that had stood the test of time this of course being a way to show that this asset has had long-term conviction long-term belief that it has lived up to well I thought it was a really good idea and my strong guess was that not that many people were going to be listening to podcasts on Thanksgiving Day itself and so I'm actually doing a second kind of a long read Sunday Sunday will have its own long reads and it's a doozy 100K Bitcoin get ready but this one is a throwback it's a throwback Thursday long read Sunday but for Thursday you get what I'm saying anyways we're going back to May 30th 2013 chamath palah haaa not yet the buffet of his generation kind of figure just someone who had had some really profound success first with Facebook and then with his early Social Capital fund but was already getting a reputation for having some pretty serious Insight this gave us one of our most enduring ideas of Bitcoin as schmuck insurance so let's listen to this piece from all the way back in 2013 why I invested in Bitcoin the opportunity here is to think constructively about a world in which money flows are more transparent Bitcoin easy Bitcoin cheap Bitcoin and secure Bitcoin the weeks of speculation about whether JP Morgan Chas and co-chairman and chief executive officer Jamie Diamond would be forced to give up one of his titles has ended I didn't take a side in the battle if only because I couldn't get beyond the threshold questions why does anyone even care and why do we believe we are still beholden to people like this since the 2008 financial crisis we have seen a massive decline in trust in the financial services industry Leman Brothers Bear Sterns American International Group the London whales Cypress and a host of lesser scandals have prompted consumers to say one thing loud and clear I don't trust you or you're only in it for yourself or who made you king or some very reasonable variant thereof it seems the financial services industry's best response is trust me I went to Harvard Business School the point is that this fundamental trust no longer exists in its place Rises Bitcoin this episode is brought to you by crypto.com the Crypt super app that lets you buy earn and spend crypto all in one place and earn up to 88.5% per year on your Bitcoin download the crypto.com app now to see the interest rates you could be earning on BTC and more than 20 other coins once in the app you can apply for the crypto.com medal card which pays you up to 8% cash back instantly on all purchases reserve yours in the crypto.com app today looking for the best way to stay on top of your investment game nexo I has you covered in three easy steps with their high yield savings account for digital assets step one create an account at nexo.io step two transfer assets to your secure nexo wallet with no minimum or maximum limits on funds deposited step three sit back relax and earn up to 10% compounding interest paid out daily on your crypto and Fiat your passive income Made Simple get started at nexo.io Bitcoin was launched in 2008 during the depths of the financial crisis in short it's a cryptocurrency that is completely electronic peer-to-peer unregulated and unregulated uncontrolled or uncontrollable by any government or agency each Bitcoin is simply a long string of numbers and letters that can identify itself within the Bitcoin economy to be unique and legitimate Bitcoins can't be copied or tampered with they don't exist in the real world only on your phone computer or tablet but they have the same value as physical currency there are 11 million of these coins in existence today and there will only be 21 million ever created similar to Gold Bitcoins are made by mining but while gold is mined from the ground by bulldozers Bitcoins are mined by computers solving complex mathematical equations each time you get a correct answer you unlock a coin which can then enter the Bitcoin economy these quirky characteristics may all seem like reasons to question dislike or fear this new currency instead these are a few of the reasons why everyone should hope it becomes a lasting part of the fabric of financial services why when the defense Advanced research projects agency first implemented a working version of the internet in the 1960s it seemed like a fringe experiment not dissimilar to Bitcoin today it wasn't until a protocol called tcpip emerged in the 1970s and was commercialized that the internet was positioned to take off in short this protocol allowed every website and service built on it to have its own address and a way to communicate information this averted chaos allowing users to find what they were looking for allowing websites to work together and enabling networks to do the hard lifting of directing traffic in an orderly and predictable way without tcpip the internet as we know it would not exist Bitcoin today is in roughly the same development phase that tcpip was back then instead of IP addresses and websites Bitcoin has unique strings that represent money and a mechanism to send these strings securely and safely wherever you want it is a protocol that is allowing money to flow around the world much like tcpip allows information to flow in an orderly predictable way this is not a theory it happens every day the Bitcoin economy while still in its infancy is about 2 billion meaning the value of all Bitcoins and Rising new Services appear daily exchanges digital wallets payment processors along with companies that accept Bitcoin alongside dollars Euros or Yen for traditional services in addition a small and growing group of technologists are getting behind the currency allocating time and capital to building a robust ecosystem Bitcoin is being used all over the world in a wide range of ways already to avoid the high fees of using a Visa a card in sou Pao to settle the purchase of a million doll home in Buenos Aris to pay a mechanic for services and logos to provide Egyptians access to a liquid currency the list goes on bitcoin provides a safe way for anyone anywhere to send receive or store his or her money by contrast consumers are realizing that the traditional banking system shouldn't be trusted why store my money with strangers who may make crazy bets on derivatives JP Morgan why keep my money in a bank that could threaten to seize it Cyprus why keep my hard earned Savings in a currency that could be devalued because of an incompetent government Argentina all of this said the emergence of a robust Bitcoin economy won't all be positive Bad actors will use Bitcoin for drug dealing porn and financing terrorism however this already happens every day with gold dollars and other currencies it's not a reason to shut Bitcoin down which did I mention this it's not actually possible anyway there is no Central server no Central Authority and no owner Bitcoin can be slowed but not shuttered and even if the US government decides it is anti- Bitcoin many other countries will either tacitly or explicitly support it China Russia Switzerland Iceland Singapore suffice it to say that the geopolitical ramifications of a robust Bitcoin economy are mindboggling beginning with a completely peer-to-peer banking system that works by and between people and ending with a world that no longer relies on the US dollar as the reserve currency of all assets the opportunity here is to think constructively about a world in which money flows are more transparent Bitcoin easy Bitcoin cheap Bitcoin and secure Bitcoin does the Bitcoin economy need regulation possibly much like virtual guard rails enabled the internet to thrive the Bitcoin ecosystem may need something similar to begin rebalancing the financial services landscape the current price of Bitcoin is about $130 some people think that Bitcoin will never become a useful currency but rather a better version of gold or a replacement to Gold entirely if this is all Bitcoin becomes a good question is what would that make each Bitcoin worth well the value of all the gold in the world is roughly 8 trillion assuming that Bitcoin can replace gold as a more useful store of value than the upper bound of each Bitcoin would be almost 400,000 if Bitcoin grows into something bigger a useful Reserve currency then watch out its value will far exceed $400,000 I personally think that Bitcoin is already Superior to Gold its role as a currency is yet to be determined but over the next decade being gold 2.0 will suffice considering that it would represent a more than 3,000 times return I've told my friends that it is entirely rational to allocate 1% of your assets to bitcoin as I have call it schmuck insurance as the 8 crisis proved Schmucks can cause a world of damage there's a famous scene in The Matrix where Morpheus asks Neo if he wants to take the blue pill and go back to life as he knows it or take the red pill and see life as it is Neo takes the red pill and begins a period of exploration about Humanity hierarchy rules Etc Bitcoin is a red pill there will be some bad and awkward moments but lots of good useful and Powerful things will also ensue it will reallocate Financial strength and power to the people versus keeping it within a few centralized authorities I am hopeful that Bitcoin prevails the world needs more red pills again that was written 7 and 1/2 years ago Happy Thanksgiving guys until tomorrow be safe and take care of each other peace
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