저자: BillGross · 외국인
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Bill Gross는 2016년 상황에서 미국 경기가 당장 침체에 빠지지는 않겠지만 명목 GDP 2% 수준이면 체감상 침체와 같다고 봤다. 연준은 중국·신흥국 문제가 미국에 번질 가능성을 우려해 신중하며, 3월 금리 인상은 어렵고 올해 나머지 기간도 조건에 따라 못 올릴 수 있다고 전망했다. 마이너스 금리는 은행 순이자마진, 보험사·연기금 수익, 예금자 자산에 부정적이며 기존 신용 시스템을 흔들 수 있다는 입장이다. 명목 GDP는 실질성장률과 물가상승률을 합친 값으로, 미국은 3~4%가 필요하나 최근 12개월 2.8~2.9%에 그쳤다고 지적했다. 미국 명목 GDP가 4%에 못 미치면 기업 이익과 부채 상환, 주식 시장 기대치에 부담이 된다고 봤다. 포트폴리오는 매우 보수적(dr-risk)으로 구성해야 하며, 레버리지가 높은 금융 경제라 금리에 민감하다고 강조했다. 하이일드 채권은 변동성이 커서 싫어하며, 주식이 향후 12개월 10% 오를 것 같지 않다고 봤다. 대신 6~8% 수익을 주는 클로즈드엔드펀드 같은 안전한 차익거래형 상품을 추천하며 자신의 개인 포트폴리오에도 담고 있다고 밝혔다. 2016년 주식시장 변동성은 높을 것이며 VIX가 약 22%로 전년 대비 두 배 수준이라 하루 1~1.5% 움직임이 자주 나올 것으로 봤다. 경기, 마이너스 금리, 금리 효과에 대한 불확실성이 시장 변동성의 원인이라고 설명했다.
다듬은 글
Reserve minutes released earlier this week show officials worrying about a global slowdown you think financial markets sell off that could hurt the US economy with Market volatility throwing a wrench in the fed's expectation of smooth sailing I spoke with Pimco founder and Janice Capital portfolio manager Bill gross and asked him about policy makers and do they have reason for this uncertainty and what about negative interest rates at five central banks around the world I think there is uh you know it centers around global economic conditions as opposed to domestic I think the FED is uh you know well uh well vered and very happy in terms of consumption and a 2% GDP number for the us but I think they observe uh problems in China they observe problems in emerging markets and they think eventually that those problems might come back to the United States and so they're cautious um they probably won't move in March and they may not move for the rest of the year depending upon those condition yeah really interesting I want to talk more about that and what's going on globally as well as the United States but let me let me kick it off with with what we're seeing right now and that is negative interest rates around the world bill at this point five central banks have now gone to negative interest rates most recently of course Sweden on the heels of the bank of Japan taking rates into negative territory you've been talking a lot about this recently I have and I I I think uh you know the fed and other central banks for 203 30 40 actually for 100 years have followed a model of lowering interest rates to improve a um near uh recessionary economy or a slow growth economy and raising interest rates to cool off inflation that's been their basic model I think ultimately though um that interest rates at the zero bound negative interest rates in some countries as you mentioned you has some negative impacts that uh that aren't reflected in their historical models for instance um you know if if interest rates are zero or negative uh then the returns to banks are lowered in terms of their net interest margins we see that in the price of Bank stocks also in terms of insurance companies and Pension funds and ultimately Maria Savers if Savers can't earn interest on their money then what happens to that money and what happens to credit and capitalism as we know it and as we have known for the past 100 years do you think the US economy enters recession this year I think uh perhaps next year um you know there's a good indicator Maria the Atlanta fed runs a model they're suggesting that this quarter this is the first quarter not the first year but they're suggesting that this quarter GDP and the 2 and a half% real growth range I I think ultimately the critical thing is is the nominal GDP that is real growth plus inflation and I think ultimately a Fed in the United States has to produce nominal GDP of 3 to 4% it it's only been 2.8 or 2.9% over the past 12 months and why do we need 4% we need it to service debt and we need it to you know to service expectations in the equity Market because you need 4% nominal GDP to grow profits and that hasn't been taking place so um I don't see a recession but I think critically we should be looking for nominal GDP at 2% which to me would be a a nominal GDP recession wow so it it it could actually be uh not necessarily officially a recession but it might feel like a recession which I think a number of people will will say they're feeling right now given that they haven't seen wages move uh what does a a recommended portfolio look like today from your standpoint well I I think it should be drisk that is very conservative because this is a Marketplace this is a financial economy that's highly levered Maria and when you have still a high amount of Leverage and we heard Neil kashari from the Minnesota fed talk about that in recent days in terms of uh Banks and too big to fail it reflects simply uh an economy and a global economy in which we still have a high level of debt that is very sensitive to interest rates and so you know I'd say dr- risk I I don't like high yield at the moment because it's too volatile um I I don't especially think that stocks are going to go up uh you know 10% over the next 12 months and so you know stick to those safe Arbitrage those closed in funds that yield uh 6 to 7 to 8% those are in my own uh personal portfolio and uh you know it's been looking pretty good for the past 12 months in terms of broad portfolios that includes equities Bill are you expecting a real volatile year what does what does 2016 look like when you look at the equities Market yeah it has to be volatile and and that's the word that all analysts use it doesn't mean much uh that's simply means that prices go up and down and a lot I I suppose you know as reflected by the the VIX Index which is a measure of equity volatility now around 22 or 22% I I think that basically is is where we will be for the rest of the year that's about twice as much volatility as what we've had in Prior years so does that mean one to 1 and a half% moves on a daily basis almost because the the market is uncertain in terms of the economy uncertain in terms of the negative interest rates and uncertain as to whether those negative interest rates will do any good and my thanks to Bill gross there coming to us uh from California
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