저자: TomLee,StephanieGuild,CourtneyGarcia—진행자WolfOfDubai제외 · 외국인
요약 보기
패널들은 CPI 호조와 실적 개선으로 증시 상승세가 건전하다고 보며 S&P500 8000 도달 가능성을 언급한다. Tom Lee는 마진부채 증가, 워시 연준 의장 체제 불확실성, 중간선거, SpaceX 락업 해제 등을 근거로 8월 이후 10% 조정 가능성을 경고한다. Stephanie는 AI 주도 급락 위험과 금리 상승 리스크를 지적하지만 펀더멘털은 강하다고 본다. Courtney는 이익 기반 랠리이며 섹터 참여가 넓어졌다고 낙관한다. 진행자는 9~10월 계절성과 암호화폐 디커플링을 주장하며 자사 자동매매 유료 서비스를 홍보하는데, 이는 투자 근거로 검증되지 않은 광고 내용이다.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee actually says we're going much, much higher. Yes, he was right that this was a buying opportunity at the bottom of the market, and now we are much higher, and now we are gradually moving into greed mode in the markets. But what does this mean for B M and R, and when will this huge drop that Tom Lee predicts happen?
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He was very, very right in his theses and predictions many times. I know some of his predictions are a bit, let's say, long-term, right? We know all those predictions about Ethereum at 12,000, 10,000 at the end of last year, but I do n't think anyone expected this " bear" market. You know, otherwise Tom Lee might have waited to create the Treasury, right?
So, having said that, let's get straight to the point, because he explained what's going on and what it means, and then we'll talk about the implications for BMNR. Stocks are going up, goals and optimism are growing. Let's welcome our panel: Tom Lee from Fundstrat, Stephanie Guild from Robinhood, and Courtney Garcia from Payne Capital.
Tom and Courtney are CNBC contributors. Greetings to everyone. Nice to see you, Tom. This is exactly what was needed, isn't it? That's right. We got a good CPI report, and on the back of good earnings, stocks are rising on positive news. I think the rally is quite healthy and it is consistent with our view that we can reach 7900-8000 by the end of the month.
That was your prediction, you know, the other day. Ed Yardeni says, "We're moving so well right now that we could hit 8,400 by the end of the year because of the earnings story that we keep talking about." Does that, you know, make sense to you ? Yeah, I think that's kind of a baseline because the 2027 earnings are probably 410 right now.
At the beginning of the reporting season, they were around 395, and by the end of this month, they will probably be close to 425. So if you multiply that by a factor of 20, you are already close to 9,000. We keep saying that you were optimistic. That's right. You were right. But you keep talking about a possible 10% pullback in stocks at some point.
We have n't seen this yet. And today in your note you state, and I quote: “ Positive drivers for stocks in the near term remain good , including demand for AI, right? A strengthening US economy, positive earnings revisions and the fact that inflation remains more subdued than most expect do not seem like catalysts for a 10% pullback.
So what are they? Well, I think setbacks happen when we least expect them. You know, and usually when investors are optimistic. So, I think reaching the 8,000 mark at the end of August will set us up for a period where stocks could disappoint, despite good fundamentals. This is partly because margin debt has become very large.
Partly because we still haven't figured out how the market will perceive Kevin Warsh and his new structure, and whether the bond market will throw a tantrum. Third, the midterm elections are coming up, and I think that's a source of uncertainty. And finally, I really think that for SpaceX, which had an initial unlock, there's still a lot of stock to be unlocked.
So I think all of this represents potential pitfalls ahead. OK. Steph, what do you think about this? Uh, I mean, I agree that usually when there's a period, like a hedge fund crash, it's a sign that lending conditions may be too easy and leverage is increasing. I think it's already been resolved, but I don't think we'll have another case like this .
I just think that in this environment where artificial intelligence is driving the processes, you end up with almost instantaneous crashes . I heard Jordi Visser from 22V say, and I agree with that, because I think you have parabolic moves and then a kind of consolidation. I also think that interest rates are definitely a risk that could continue to rise.
Uh, but I also agree that there are strong fundamentals, so I think it's going to be a struggle in the market. The market was amazing, considering what you described. You know, the hedge fund crash, the yield surge. But have n't we become a little cleaner in a few respects now, have n't we? The inflation situation has stabilized a bit, positioning has improved, and we have reduced leverage a bit .
Tom is right, there 's still a lot of, you know, leverage, margin debt, etc. in the system, but it seems like we've cleaned up a bit. I think as the rally continues you start to recover that and that's why I say you could eventually get another pullback because margin debt is rising again. Courtney, aren't people being too optimistic?
I don't think so, and I believe that ultimately the markets are now driven by profits, and those profits justify what the markets do. People were worried about capital spending, but I think the more earnings reports we see, the more it actually justifies the situation . And I think if you look at the markets as a whole over the last 3 months, the leaders are healthcare, financials and industrials, and they're all actually outperforming the S&P 500, which means we're seeing a really broad rally.
It's no longer just seven companies supporting the markets, and the fact that even in the days when artificial intelligence is becoming a major topic, we see participation from all sectors. I really like this as a positive scenario, and if profits remain strong and consumers continue to spend, I think the markets will continue to grow.
You paid attention to this because if you look at, say, the balance for the last 30 days. So, the results for 1 month: financials almost 4%, technology 3.25%, industrials 2.5%, healthcare 4.6%, materials over 3%. This is exactly what people were hoping for, right? Yes, this is large-scale growth. I think that's a good sign, and of course, as you know, global markets are doing well, and there are still trillions of dollars of cash sitting in the accounts.
And I think there's a pretty high level of healthy skepticism, as many of our institutional clients believe that either the AI trend is overheated or we're in the late stages of the profitability cycle. Like a profit "bubble" that is about to burst. True. And then, of course, they believe that the Fed should respond to this by tightening policy.
So, I think there are people who are watching for the end of the bull market, and that's what I think makes it healthy. I actually support this because if you look at it, valuations have fallen by two points while earnings growth has more than doubled since the end of March. So I think there's a healthy skepticism, and to me, it's the numbers behind it, and I welcome that skepticism because I think it means the bull market can last a little longer.
This is a bit like 1998 after the LTCM crisis, when the market went up for another 18 months and added 35%. The most surprising or interesting part is about the correction, and I don't know if we'll see another such serious pullback that Tamulti is talking about , because think for yourself, okay? We had a pushback through Iran in March.
Then we had a rollback due to AI in June- July. And you know, the market may have two or three pullbacks, but if we have already gone through such sharp corrections, perhaps the rest of the year will be marked by a willingness to take risk. September and October are usually not the best months. So if there is a pullback, then perhaps statistically and given seasonality, it should happen there.
And it won't affect Bitget too much. I'll tell you why. I think we've seen that when AI and the tech sector are n't doing so well, like in June and July, the crypto market has done 30% in a month. You see the rotation of sectors and money, right? In addition, we have already gone through a huge "bear " market.
So if clarity really does come, we should see a spike at the end of the year, right? And given the seasonality, we may not see a rate increase either, which would also be a positive signal. So, we can see the perfect combination of factors. So just because stocks or the tech market might pull back doesn't mean the crypto market will follow suit, right?
That was my opinion on Tom Lee. Let us know what you think, what you do with your Bitmain, and come visit xandate.com before we raise the joining fee, and see you tomorrow, .
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