저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
Tom Lee는 AI 투자 열풍이 아직 버블 단계가 아니며, 최근 하락은 건강한 조정이라고 주장한다. [AI 버블 논쟁] Tom Lee는 AI 관련 우려가 오히려 버블을 막고 있으며, 최근 채권시장의 부채 기반 투자 억제는 건강한 조정이라고 본다. AI 발견(수학 문제 해결 등)이 계속 나오고 생산성 성장이 이어지는 한 AI 투자 1달러당 수익성이 있다고 주장한다. [AI 투자 규모] 향후 25년간 AI에 30조 달러가 투입되어도, 미국 가계의 연간 이자소득(약 7조 달러)으로 충분히 조달 가능하다고 설명한다. 이동통신망(약 25조 달러), 도로건설(약 25조 달러)과 비교해 AI가 더 중요한 인프라 프로젝트이며 현재 AI에 과도한 투자는 없다고 본다. [시장 조정 및 매수 의견] 기술주 매도가 주류화되어 조정의 막바지 단계로 보며, 이번 하락장에서 매수하겠다고 밝혔다. 연준은 매파에서 비둘기파로 바뀔 가능성이 있고, 금리는 5% 부근에서 5% 아래로 내려왔다. 남은 불확실성은 시장의 폐쇄성과 전쟁 관련 리스크다. [매수 대상] AI, 메모리 병목, 엔비디아, 매그니피센트 7은 공매도가 쉬워 매도세를 받고 있는 것으로 보며 바닥을 다지는 중이라고 판단한다. 소프트웨어와 암호화폐도 현 환경에서 선호한다고 밝혔다. 금융 섹터는 금리 하락으로 기회가 많다고 본다. 광범위한 경기순환 매매에 낙관적이며, 기술주는 지지선에 닿고 있고 중간선거 이후 시장이 강하게 오를 것으로 전망했다. [역사적 비교] 1997년 시스코는 인터넷 출현 3년 후 50% 급락했으나 이후 회복 과정을 거쳤다는 점을 들어, 현재 상황과 유사하다고 주장한다. 다만 미국 방어주(헬스케어, 필수소비재, 유틸리티) 강세와 폐기물처리 등 방어 섹터의 상대 강세는 시장의 불안 신호로 해석될 수 있다는 질문이 제기되었다. [영상 후반부(XANDATRADER 광고 및 시장 해설)] 영상 후반부는 이 채널의 자동매매 서비스 홍보와 함께, 이번 주 실적 발표, 수요일 연준 금리 결정, 다음 주 중간선거 등 불확실성을 언급하며 단기 등락은 정상적이라는 시장 해설을 담고 있다. 특정 종목(BMNR)에 대한 명시적 목표가 발언은 확인되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee says this over and over again. Buy on the dip, it's not a "bubble," and actually, I think I understand what's going on now. All this and much more is in this video. Welcome to the new video. My name is Danny, and I try to find stocks that just take off, you know? I've done this throughout my 10-year YouTube career for many promotions, so you might want to subscribe.
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This week is very busy for us . It would be madness not to be delighted . Let's move on to the main topic of the video. Our next guest sees opportunities during this sale. We're connected with Tom Lee from Fundstrat. He is also a contributor to CNBC. Nice to see you again. You say that concerns about AI are preventing it from becoming a " bubble." Some suggest that these concerns are only deflating what has already become a “bubble.” God, I know there are going to be two sides to this debate, but I argue that the fears about AI are preventing a " bubble" because we continue to see amazing discoveries made by AI.
I mean, whether it's Muse and agents, or maybe OpenAI solved 770 math problems two weeks ago. This is not the end or a late stage for AI discoveries and even for productivity growth. So, as long as we see progress there, every dollar of capital invested in AI is profitable. I think it's very healthy that debt markets are, to some extent, curbing the uncontrolled speculative boom in AI.
So I think this is actually a very healthy correction. So you're focused more on the derivative effects, you could say, rather than on issues with costs, funding, capital shortages or anything like that? Well, yes, I mean, unfortunately, AI really does require a lot of money. We did a report a few weeks ago that shows that if AI spends $30 trillion over the next 25 years, then, first of all, there is plenty of investment money, since the annual interest income of US households alone is about $7 trillion.
So, you know, a trillion of that amount can be financed just by the interest income that Americans receive. But building the mobile network cost about 25 trillion, and road construction also cost 25 trillion. I now believe that AI is a more important infrastructure project than mobile communications, and it requires about the same amount of money.
So I don't think too much money is being invested in AI today. Would you buy in this market drop? Yes. I think we are in the final stages of a sell-off as the bearish play on tech stocks has become mainstream, and I think the bond yields that have been so exciting the markets have come down. I mean, you have two factors that used to be headwinds: the Fed was quite hawkish and now it's becoming potentially dovish, and interest rates, which were approaching 5% with fears of 6%, are now back below 5% .
I think the only thing left is that the markets are a bit closed now, and of course, the uncertainty about the war. So, if you say "yes, I would buy," what exactly would you buy? Would you be left with just the biggest AI-related stocks? So, Scott, I think AI, memory bottlenecks, Nvidia, and the magic seven -- they're selling off because they're easy to short right now, and I think, of course, people are worried about credit risk.
I think they are bottoming out , but I also like software and cryptocurrency in the current environment. I am quite optimistic about the whole broad cyclical trade. As you know, the financial sector hasn't been growing, but rates are coming down, so I see a lot of opportunity. I view this as a compressed spring as the fundamentals remain stable.
Wow, I mean if you look at, say, the semiconductor index or the DRAM ETF, for example, that show this. Hmm, there's so much destruction in this trade . I'm just wondering what story this graph will actually tell in the coming weeks, if not months. Scott, I think this just shows how fierce the fight around AI is today.
But keep in mind that in 1997, three years after the launch of the public internet and browsers, Cisco, the biggest stock at the time, suffered a massive 50% drop, partly because Alan Greenspan spoke of irrational optimism and later implemented a preemptive rate hike, not too different from today. Cisco went through a 50% correction, fell to five, and a year later it was 18.
I think the situation is similar. You know, ChatGPT is actually approaching its third anniversary. I think we're so early in AI commerce that people's excitement is understandable. I mean, many have made money, and there is also profit-taking. What about other areas of the market? Yes, the market has expanded, but, you know, not in the best way.
Healthcare, essential goods , utilities— this doesn't exactly add confidence to the market. No, yes, the waste management services sector , which is a super defensive group , is showing growth, indicating market nervousness. I would say the optimistic argument is that it is also a market reach argument.
But I spoke to Mark Newton. It looks like we're seeing the tech sector actually touching support levels. Although I think we know that the next few weeks will be a time of uncertainty before the midterm elections. I think this is a window for investors to buy assets as the market is generally risk averse, but I think the market will rise broadly and very strongly after the election .
I mean, we had Mark on the air yesterday or the day before yesterday, and he said that underneath the surface, the Qs and S&P are stronger than they appear. So, we'll see. Tom, thank you. Tom Lee. Thank you. Next in the program. Every time stocks fall, and that includes crypto, they say, "Oh, the bubble is bursting, right?" Let me tell you, bubbles usually start when nobody thinks it's a bubble, because everyone thinks, "Oh, it's going to keep growing." And everyone is delighted and greedy.
This is, in essence, the DNA of a real bubble. So now it's just bubble talk during every recession. Every drop, whether it was in July, or March, or because of tariffs— every time everyone says it's a bubble bursting, right? On the other hand, I think you should wait for the next week or even two for the uncertainty to finally leave the market, right?
Because we have so many uncertain factors right now. First, take a look at this reporting calendar. This week is packed with the most important financial results. Next, on Wednesday the Federal Reserve will make a decision on rates, which is also very important. And thirdly, we have midterm elections next week.
So you see how much uncertainty there is in the market right now. That's why our ups and downs, like today, are proving somewhat short-lived. And that doesn't mean we're going back to the bubble or that we're in it now. This simply means that it is perfectly normal for stocks to rise and fall. So if you want to know about this and much more, visit xandateatrader.com . .
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