저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
부동산 공급 과잉(매도자>매수자)은 과거 역사상 가격 하락을 보장하지 않았다고 주장. 2013년 등 과거 사례에서 매도자 우위에도 가격이 상승했음을 근거로 듦. 현재 미국 부동산은 바닥 근처이며 일부 과잉공급 지역(피닉스, 오스틴, 플로리다 등)은 조정 후 흡수 단계로 진입했다고 봄. Santa Clara 주택 사례를 들어 매입 후 리노베이션 시 20만~30만 달러 차익 가능성을 제시하며 자사 앱 추천을 홍보함. 영상 내 광고성 발언이 포함됨.
다듬은 글
Well, like, it's on sale now. This is not my ad. You can earn between $200,000 and $300,000 on this deal if you do everything right. This is a great deal that our app found. Oh my god, I'm really excited about this. I even want to propose to her. You've probably heard that there are fewer sellers than buyers in the real estate market right now .
And many say: “Well, that's it, this is the end. This is a peak. Prices are finally falling. " Real estate will finally become affordable." But , as always, everything is much more complicated. Now we will look at this data. We will analyze the real estate market cycle to understand what this data really means.
And then we'll make a housing forecast in this video. We will also do a little analysis to show an example of what a good deal might look like. So, let's start with the data. Here is the graph from which we will start looking at the data. The most important component here is the percentage by which sellers outnumber buyers, which will soon appear as a gray bar.
And the nominal lines will be red lines for buyers. So, remember: red is the buyer, blue is the seller, okay? Before we expand this chart, let's understand what a trendline is here . Since 2024, the number of sellers who have listings on the market has been within certain limits that we can outline.
We see this figure ranging from approximately 1.5 to 1.85 million active ads. This is a quick logic check: it makes perfect sense, considering that there are typically 4 to 7 million deals processed per year and the sales cycle is 90 days. So if you take 1.7 and multiply it by four, it comes out to about 6.8 million, right?
That's roughly how it turns out. So, these numbers are quite realistic. Everything is logical, and we see that the number of buyers has historically been below this level. There were small peaks where the red lines rose higher and then fell back down. It is clear that during COVID there was a massive reduction in available supply and a sharp drop in interest rates, leading to a huge surge in buyer demand, while the number of homes available actually decreased.
Mostly because of the fixed interest rate, because often the seller of the house eventually becomes its buyer. Okay, we know that. So this data covers the period up to 2026, where we just saw the changes. When suddenly there were more sellers than buyers. But if you zoom out on this graph over the past 14 years, you can see that the overall trend in the number of available sellers has fallen sharply.
We're not really seeing a spike in listings from sellers because of a sudden wave of foreclosures, short sales, or anything like that. You see foreclosures in syndicates where the property was somewhat overvalued, like apartment complexes in the Southeast, just as an example. The Sun Belt is another such place.
So in reality, the Southeast could include parts of Florida, and of course, the Sun Belt , which extends all the way to Austin, Texas. This is mostly old news, and some of these markets are starting to bottom out as many people moved to these areas during COVID. We have seen a massive acceleration in the emergence of new offerings.
At this point, this is old news. But what I'm more interested in is what actually happened to home prices during this period on the chart? Is this graph or is it "Oh my God, there are more sellers than buyers right now." Does such a clickbait headline really create panic or affect prices? Well, let's look at what happened historically.
So if we go back to 2013, we see that we had significantly more sellers, that's the blue line. In fact , this entire area here shows far more sellers than buyers. In this segment, there are significantly more sellers than buyers. So, logically, you would expect, "Oh my god, there are more sellers. Prices should go down, right?" No.
In this particular scenario, the exact opposite happened. Of course, this isn't always the case, but look at this. Prices actually skyrocketed when we had more sellers. So the question is, does a higher number of sellers compared to buyers mean that prices should change? Not necessarily, because people can list houses and ask any price , and like eBay, if it doesn't sell, it doesn't sell.
This does not mean that it has to be sold. People make different choices. “I will rent. I will stay. "Anything." So, this is an interesting point about housing. Just because something is listed for sale doesn't mean it has to sell. And what's really unique about this period is April 2013, right here; I remember this, you know, when I was selling houses in 2013, I remember how we saw this sudden boom.
Suddenly, stocks collapsed at the end of 2012, and there was this explosive growth over the next year, which really started in April 2013. And in reality, it happened because people finally believed that the housing market had really bottomed out , which it did in late 2011, about a year and a half before prices skyrocketed in April 2013 .
So prices actually jumped 10% year-over-year from 2012 to 2013, and then again by about 9% nationwide from 2013 to 2014. You had a pretty massive push. You can actually see this push on the graph. It's a little bit granular here, but I've included it here: the annual change in the Redfin Home Price Index.
You see this jump right here. It's April 20th... Sorry , it says 2023 here. I... I wrote that. I was wrong. It's April 2013 and you had this big push that lasted for a good year. It was fantastic, and you saw it in 2014 as well. And house prices were quite positive throughout the period after 2011 until COVID.
Now, house price growth has slowed here in 2018, which I marked intentionally; This was essentially Powell's bond market crash in 2018, when we had one interest rate hike too many. I remember that period very clearly too. In fact, this is where I was making videos for YouTube while I was a real estate agent.
But here— no. Well, I wasn't, you know, a YouTuber back then , I was in business, I was in the thick of things. Trench warfare as it is. But in any case, you see that when the blue line or the number of sellers exceeds the number of buyers, it does not mean that prices will go down. In fact, here it meant that prices skyrocketed , which means that this line actually had nothing to do with what prices were doing.
Here the prices, again, there are more sellers than buyers because interest rates have gone up, but prices, uh, haven't gone down. They didn't even go into the red. They were just positive, uh, to a lesser extent. So, here they have more growth, and here they have less. This actually has nothing to do with the level of supply from sellers, which sounds ironic, right?
Like, these are not the basics of economics. Basics of economics: supply and demand. If supply increases, then the price should fall if demand is unchanged or falling. That doesn't make sense, Kevin. Why is that? Again, because this quantity supplied is not a commodity. These are people's homes, and they have other options.
Mostly, you know, private homes are owned by small investors, about 85%—they're family investors or homeowners, right? A homeowner is also an investor to some extent. Okay, so obviously during COVID we had this huge supply shortage. In this case, one could argue that oh, this massive surplus of buyers should have caused prices to jump, skyrocket by 20%.
Was it because of that, or because we cut interest rates to zero? So, the whole point of my argument, and now we're going to talk about where I think we are in the cycle, and then we're going to do a little analysis. But the whole point of my argument is that just because, oh my god, there are more house sellers than buyers, it doesn't matter.
Uh, you know, just because it happens. This has nothing to do with what the potential is for the housing market in terms of pricing. Er , that's a misnomer . It's kind of a good Twitter clickbait, if you will, because it sounds logical but isn't based on facts. Okay, fine. So, now let's take a look at the real estate cycle and understand where we are in the housing market right now.
So, first of all, most of the housing market is currently showing price increases across the country. The markets that are nearing the bottom and the worst markets are still Phoenix, Arizona, and parts of inland California. Here you have Austin, Texas. You have Orlando, Florida, and other parts of Florida, right?
It's probably Jacksonville if I had to guess here. But you see a drop from about -2.7 to 0%. This is not such a big drop anymore. In previous years it was more aggressive. It's bottoming out because some of this new supply is slowing down, okay? The rate of supply growth is slowing, not like it was in 2022.
So, in some regions we are actually seeing very, very strong price increases. New York, Illinois, Ohio, San Francisco, some of these markets are actually very liberal. What I usually notice is this: Let's take, for example, coastal real estate in Southern California, San Francisco, the Northeast, a little bit of the Midwest, but mostly it's urban areas.
In these regions, one can often find more liberal policies. And you know, this is not a political video at all. The article or the gist of what was said is simply that typically when there are more liberal housing policies and affordability options, you tend to reduce the supply that developers are willing to provide to the market, and everything actually becomes more expensive.
So, as usual, the government is doing the exact opposite of what it should be doing . But, unfortunately, this is often the essence of state intervention . Now let's talk about the real estate market cycle and then move on to analyzing the actual deal. It's always fun to do a little real estate analysis again.
So, we will analyze one deal. So let's take a look at this. This is a graph that I drew early in my real estate career , probably in 2010, drew in maybe 2011 , somewhere in that range, from 2009 to 2011. That's when we created this graph. And we called it the real estate cycle. In fact, the way to determine where we are is to look at, for example, the COVID period: we had a low interest rate environment, home prices and rents were rising.
This new price increase has led to a huge demand for new construction. Some areas could not accommodate the excess supply due to the permitting system or state policy. Some areas have been able to accommodate excess supply due to more relaxed permitting rules. Areas where there was oversupply were actually acting as the market should.
When prices go up, you should see more development. Of course. And you have to see, as is typical of capitalism, an over-correction due to too much construction, and then, like, we can't rent it all out, and prices go down. Okay, we saw it. We saw a 25 percent drop in areas like Austin, Texas, from peak to trough.
In some areas it reached 30%. Okay, that's over now. It happened, so be it. So then you hit rock bottom and slowly start to absorb the excess supply. This is what we are starting to see in overdeveloped areas . Again , parts of Florida , parts of Texas, it's starting to happen. So, in some of these markets, you're probably right in that range.
In areas that haven't seen accelerated new construction, you may still be in this range. Rising rents and prices. It's also quite possible that you had a slightly accelerated new construction. People tried to build more. Areas with little development did see growth. You did see some softening in prices and rents, which, to be fair , even on the Southern California coast we saw in some markets, you know, if you look, there was probably a slight dip in prices in 2024, and then those rents rebounded again.
So, is it possible that some of these areas have gone through a little mini-cycle of oversupply? Perhaps. However, for most markets today, I will show a chart of where I think the stock market is and where the housing market is. Now I actually find this very useful because I'm going to explain where my startup's capital has been invested, and the vast majority of it is related to this real estate cycle.
So if we draw a real estate cycle, we're going to draw this big cycle right here, okay? Let's make a note here. Let's say we have cash, development projects, and the market value of real estate . At Reinvest, my startup, we probably have about $100 million in assets free of bank debt. So, no bank debt at all, right?
Okay, great. So, this is real estate. And then securities, meaning stocks, probably about 1.5, if at all. So you see the correlation here, right? For every dollar in stocks, we have $66.67 in real estate. So, obviously there's some bias here in terms of where we invested, but I don't say it in the video with that bias.
I'm actually making this video to show you that there's a reason why we allocate capital the way we do . You see, people sometimes think, "Oh, you allocated the funds a certain way, so you're biased." Or: did we have an idea, and we allocated the funds that way because we believe in this thesis. I think we divided it this way because we believe in this thesis.
And if you follow the channel, you know that we have been voicing this thesis since 2022. 2022, we're like, "Hey, we're going to start a real estate company because we think this is the decade to buy real estate, and here's what we think is going to happen." And we deliberately avoided markets like Texas and Florida because we had traveled to those markets and seen firsthand what was happening before the prices dropped.
We saw exactly what was happening in the markets because we were directly on the ground. We were there. I flew to these markets every day, seven days a week. I think I've flown about 500 hours sitting in an airplane in 2023. Yes. It doesn't matter whose plane it is. This sucks. OK. Now, regarding the stock market, I would say if we had to superimpose the real estate market on it, the stock market would probably be right here right now.
So that means we still have some stock, right? Here, here, there's still a reserve. Like, the " bubble" may still be around for a while, but you know, we have n't really had one since 2008. So, we have a certain reserve, but it is not unlimited. That's why, in the current environment, I like to have low debt levels.
Low or zero debt. Okay, regarding the real estate market, I actually think it's in a completely different position. I actually think the real estate market is here. Some markets might be here because you're already starting to see some upward movement, right? So, this is the housing market. So I actually think that a correction in housing prices has already happened in many markets.
In some markets, prices simply haven't gone up because the stakes are too high. And the excess supply prevented prices from rising. So you probably had a mini- cycle in underdeveloped markets , and in oversupplied markets you had, you know, a 25–30% drop. This means that if you look at it now and say, "Okay, let's say I have $0, distributed anywhere.
Where do I want to invest my money? Well, when I look at it , I think, " If I had to choose, I would probably invest most of my money in real estate and some in stocks." Hmm. That's pretty much what we did. Truth? So I think it's interesting. I like to buy when others think it's crap, and now many people think so.
Okay, okay, Kevin. So where can I find a good deal? Well, I don't think there's a shortage of good deals. The cool thing is that we created an app to find exactly these kinds of offers. So , let's open the Re Invest app. Here is our news feed page. Let's go to the Homes AI tab. And why don't we sort by...
you know what? San Francisco, Santa... let's choose, for example, Santa Clara. How do you like this idea? Yes, I like it. So, we are updating the districts. We're removing Ventura. Enter Santa Clara. It's going to be something like San Jose or San Francisco, where all this tech hype is happening right now.
OK. So, here we have an application with its own algorithms and AI. It is on it that we run our Blackwell GPUs. It is on it that our processor stack with its own trained AI runs. It's not some kind of shell or anything like that. This is our own AI that we're very proud of, and, you know, we've worked a lot on training it with Kevin.
OK. So, the app shows that this property has an expected capital gain of $104,000 with a transaction value of $850,000. It appears to be a three-bedroom, one-bathroom house . If I look at these photos, I see traces of moisture, mold, or just dirt on the walls. The bathrooms need a little attention. Oh, it's actually not that bad.
The kitchen looks original. Fireplace, old paint colors. Oh, outside. Look, I see a double-glazed window. I see it in the thumbnail. And on the right they replaced the window. And they didn't finish the plaster finish when they put in the window, probably with nail-on fasteners, not overhead. It's also interesting that I don't see the garage right away.
So I wonder if they converted it into a living space. Three bedrooms, one bath, 1,357 square feet. Here is the frame. They converted it into a living space. Usually they have a carport, but this is Northern California, they do some pretty weird things there. Let's check this out. So, this is 112 11921.
And I think this option, if the app is not wrong, will cause a lot of excitement and will probably sell out quickly , if, of course, the app is right, but maybe it is not. 119, I just need to know the address. Good. Come on, Kevin. 11921. 11921 Ridge, Santa Clara. OK. So let's open this up and share what we have on the screen.
It looks like the ad appeared 6 days ago . Let's take a look at Zillow. Here are all the photos, now we can see them in better quality. It looks like there's a new front door. Small screen door. Okay, cool. A strange wall right at the entrance. Of course. I mean, there's something strange about this.
I still don't see what's going on with the garage. Let's take a look at Google Street View. Let's see if this is what I call a " not bad, but..." place. So, what is it about him? Oh, there's a small green area there, but it's probably an apartment building. I'm not sure. What's here? Good. Let's go down here.
Oh, there's a kindergarten on the corner. Wonderful . I wonder if they make any profit from this . Oh, what do we have here? Garage on the side? No. Maybe there once was. And I don't think he's from this side. But look at these upgraded windows. OK. That is, you shouldn't say " modernized". These are probably windows for new buildings that they just glued in.
There are many cars on the street. Oh, probably because of kindergarten. My God, what a lively area. Well, you know, oh, look at this. It seems like all investors are taking a closer look. Look, you see. I bet it's a realtor and an investor... There it is. Wait. Wait, was that an investor? So what do we have here?
See this little window block? Actually, it was probably a garage. So, there is no entrance here. It was an entrance . You can see the curb lowering right here. And they turned it into residential space, judging by the planning, illegally. Yeah, and see how this guy is holding the paper? The buyer always receives the paper.
That's why I chose this guy. I like that he is holding the paper. He... you know, the realtor hands over the paper. Like: " Oh, okay, it'll be him." Okay, I understand. So, this is their version of a carport. This is a tree. Oh my god, real estate is something special. Me, I really love this business.
Okay, so where are we? Let's look at similar objects . Come on. Wow, so many sales in the last 90 days. Are you kidding? That's right. So, similar objects...The property is right here. Let's step back a bit . Uh, this is probably an apartment building. Yes, of course. I don't know why it's on the residential list, but it doesn't matter.
So what do I have here? I have a four bedroom, two bath option for $1.2 million . Oh, there it is. Here is a "three bedroom, one bath" option closer to a busy road, also for 1.2. So why does "four and two" go for 1.2? Maybe it's not that great...No, the condition is excellent. Look, this is beautiful.
And there's a nice big area behind it. It will be hard to compete with that. I'm betting 1.2 for this crumb. Uh, nice for a "four and two", but the area is only 1132 sq m. feet. How did they do it? Oh, see that? I bet they converted the garage into an accessory dwelling unit (ADU). Yes, because it's too small for such an area.
And ADUs are quite popular here. So, is there any description of this object? No. Okay. Oh, there it is. Okay, let's begin. Four and two, a truly beautiful house. A large plot of land of 11,000 sq. m. ft. leaves space for an ADU. Yeah, of course. Four full bedrooms and a large separate workshop. They did fit four bedrooms and two bathrooms in there.
I would probably add a second bathroom to that "three and one" option and streamline it, because then I would be able to claim 1.2. This option went for 1.26. Let's see, this is an analogue for May. Let's check if they had a swimming pool. Good. Nice view from the street . They also demolished the garage to make way for redevelopment.
This will become the norm here, right? Okay. Exceptional investment property...Oh my god . Plus an apartment building...What the hell is this ? Main house plus several units. A rare opportunity for an investor. Main house plus four additional units on a large lot. Okay, this is not an analogue, because this is not a private house for a single family.
This isn't even a "three and two" option. So, we're stuck with this. What do we have here? 13 , there is a "three and two" option. 1.3. Oh, I mean, that's beautiful. This is a perfectly renovated property for resale. Oh, it's a resale. Absolutely resale. So the cool thing about reselling is that we'll have a sales history here, right?
So, let's take a look. Yes, look at this. Boom, baby. Sold in January for $990,000. And look at this. They sold it for $360,000 more. So, even if they invested $150,000 in it , okay? And then I'll deduct the selling costs, I'll deduct 7% at the end, just for loans, repairs and whatever else usually comes up.
Then I'll subtract $150,000 for renovations, maintenance costs, and all that nonsense, minus $990,000. Dude, they probably made about $115,000 on this thing , and that's in less than 5 months. This is a fantastic profit. You know, in percentage terms, it's a little low because they sold, right? If they had kept the property and not sold it, they would have about 20% equity.
But 7% of the selling costs are : 2.5%, 2.5% is 5%, and 1% is for escrow, title registration, and loans. Yes, 7%—that's probably a good rounding here. And again, I include money for loans because buyers will always find something. But it's 1.35 million on resale. What? Here's a three- bedroom, one- bath home for $1.6 million .
Wow, dude. Here it is with four bedrooms and two bathrooms, and I would add another bathroom here . Dude, you can make money on this deal. So, back to the deal. Remember, we found this option because the app we built showed that there was money here. This is my company. This is what we do. Reinvest.
We buy real estate, and we also create software that you can purchase if you want. Link in the description. reinvest.co couldn't buy the .com domain because the guy who holds it wants a million dollars for the domain. That's why we took reinvest.co. But in any case, I won't pay a million dollars for a domain.
Um, okay, maybe after we go public, if we go public, when we go public, I don't know. No guarantees. Um, but our app found it, let's go back to the ad and see how much we think it's worth. So, listed for $850,000 as a three-bedroom, one-bath home. We could invest some money here. Let's assume we need to be competitive , and we pay $875,000 for it.
I'm going to add a bathroom. I'll put $150,000 into it , adding a bathroom. That brings my expenses to one million twenty- five. Each similar sale was in the range of 1.2–1.3 million. I make a profit of $200,000 to $300,000 on this purchase. This is a very good deal. This, for example, is now for sale.
This is not my object. This is a deal that can earn you between two hundred and three hundred thousand dollars if you implement everything correctly. This is a profitable deal that our app found. Oh my god, I'm really excited about this. I even want to make an offer. So, uh, like this. Here are some thoughts on the real estate market crash, the opportunity to make $200,000 to $300,000, and an example of how our software indicated a profit of at least $100,000.
Let me take a look. Oh yes. I...I mean, honestly, I think the after- renovation value listed here is understated, uh, giving you $103,000. So, to be honest , the application here was conservative. I think the app could have been bolder and, uh , and, and shown us an even better result, like, "No, there's probably $152, maybe even $300,000 in profit from the deal." A great deal, of course, subject to inspection.
You should go and see everything in person. You know, I don't want you to buy a house with a bunch of unforeseen problems. We are only roughly estimating the numbers here. You must inspect the facility yourself. And then take a napkin and count everything. And if it works, it works. And if not, then no.
These are the rules of the game. In any case, thank you very much for being with us, friends. See you in the next video. Good luck, and don't forget to visit reinvest.co. This object was found using our app. I wouldn't have found this ad if I hadn't typed "Santa Clara" into that app and seen this potential deal. .
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