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Yes, we will have a bear market again someday, and when we do, it will be the worst in my lifetime. You remember 2008 2009 we had a big problem, well, since because of too much debt. Since then, the debt everywhere has skyrocketed. It's staggering how much the debt everywhere in the world has gone up since 2009?
So it has to be the worst in my lifetime. I'm not trying to scare you. I'm just making a simple statement of fact that debt has skyrocketed everywhere, and we always have bear markets, so the next one has to be very, very bad. Has it started yet? In my view, there's so much pessimism around that usually leads to something happening and causes a big rally.
If that happens, it will be the last rally. If you ask me, we have peace in Ukraine, or if the Federal Reserve says, oh, we're sorry, who knows what, we'll have a big rally, and that'll probably be the last rally. Look at Japan. Japan has skyrocketed the debt. The US Has skyrocketed the debt. Everybody, even China.
China didn't have too much debt 20 years ago, but now even China has a lot of debt, and people are going bankrupt. I guess America tomorrow could say we're going to stop have deficit spending, and the Japanese and the Germans and everybody else will say it, but that would cause a problem, too. If all of a sudden all these governments stop spending so much money, that will cause eventually it will cause a big problem, too.
Look out the window. The world has gotten itself into a bad situation, or at least central banks have gotten the world into a bad situation. Whether we like it or not, there's staggering debt out there, and that, throughout history has caused problems. I own a lot of US. Dollars, and the reason I do is because when the turmoil comes, people look for a safe haven.
Now they think the dollar is a safe haven for historic reason. It's not. we're the largest debtor nation in the history of the world, but since people think it's a safe haven, the dollar will have a big rally, might get overpriced, might turn into a bubble. I hope I'm smart enough to sell it if that happens.
And your next question, Dave, should be, what are you going to do with the money then? And that's a very good question. I look every day to find out what's going to be the next competitor for the US. Dollar. Logically, it would be the Chinese renminbi. But the Chinese currency is a blocked currency.
You cannot have a world currency that's blocked. So I don't know what it's going to be. For the Americans, it was absolutely insane. I'm an American, so I don't like it. Dubli don't like him. But, you know, people are already looking for something to compete with the dollar because of political reasons.
If Washington gets angry. I should say cut you off. That's not the way a reserve currency is supposed to be. It's supposed to be completely neutral. Anybody in the world can use it for anything. And all of a sudden Washington says, no, no, no, we don't like you. You're in trouble. So now people are accelerating the move to find something to compete with the US Dollar because even our friends are starting to say, wait a minute, these guys could take our money away just by closing down the banks or whatever, in whatever way or whatever reason.
So no, this just accelerates the move away from the US dollar. I don't like it, Dave, but I can see what's happening. Everybody in the world said, wait a minute, wait a minute. These guys could cut us off at a moment's notice. So we got to have an alternative. If the cryptocurrencies become successful as money, as currencies, which the bulls say it will, the governments are going to say no.
I mean, every government in the world now is trying is working on crypto money. The US I mean the Chinese are way ahead of the rest of us, but eventually all money is going to be on the computer. When that happens, when the US says, okay, this is money. Now, the bureaucrats in Washington are not going to say, okay, but if you want to use that money, you can use that money over there too.
It's not the way bureaucrats think. That's not the way governments think. They want control. They want power. They want to know everything that's happening. So my view that as long as it's just a trading vehicle, who cares? A lot of people are trading and making money or losing money, but it's only if it starts being a threat to government control that in my view, governments will act and say, nope, you cannot do it.
Central banks everywhere have been raising interest rates and have been tidying the money. And when that happens, well, many assets correct. The way markets work, nothing goes straight up or straight down. And in my view, these are normal corrections, maybe larger than most, but still a large correction.
And that's the way markets work. I wish they didn't. Wouldn't it be wonderful if when I bought something and went straight up every day for ten years? That would be heaven. But that's never happened in my lifetime. I've been around gold a long time. I bought gold over 50 years ago for the first time and never sold it gold.
In bad times, gold and silver collapsed like everything else. You may be not old enough remember 2008? But in 2008, when we had the big bear market, gold collapsed. I mean, it was one of the first things to rally and go back up. But that's the way markets work. When people are in a panic, many of them sell everything they can, and they have to sell some things because they get margin calls.
But if you're clever and you see gold collapsing in a bear market, chances are you'll buy some more. I would buy silver today if I were buying either because silver is cheaper on a historic basis, but I'm sure I'll buy both if it happens. There have been very few good central bankers in history anywhere.
Americans had, I can remember two in the last 50 or 60 years. India had a very good central banker five or six years ago, but he's gone now. They're just not very bureaucrats. These are academics. None of these guys are very smart. All they want to do is get a government job and keep a government job.
They don't care about you and me. They care about getting a nice sweet government job. They don't know what they're doing. And yes, they will probably get it wrong. You know that a few weeks ago, a few months ago they were saying there's no inflation. And they said, oh well, it's transitory inflation.
I mean, if you listen to these guys, if you go back and read them throughout history, it's like, oh my God, how about these? And they all have fancy Ivy League degrees. They have great Ivy League degrees, which means you should be very worried about them because they don't know anything even more. By the way, I have some Ivy League degree.
So when I say that, I speak from experience. But they will get it wrong, as I said before, maybe what will happen, you know, oil prices, grain prices have been coming down. If there's peace in Ukraine, many prices will come down. The central banks will say, see, we saved the world. And then they'll start loosening up again.
They won't be so tight again. And that will lead to that rally I mentioned before, the last rally. You have to watch them because they have certainly good influence and sometimes big influence, but do not listen to them and think they know what they're doing. Forget 60 40, what you call a traditional portfolio.
That's not the way to make any money. Things like that. Diversification, for instance, is something that brokers come up with so they don't get sued. That's not a way to make money though. If you want to make money, what you do is you focus, you concentrate. You put all your eggs in one basket. You gotta have the right basket, but you better watch that basket very, very carefully.
I mean, remember Henry Ford? He didn't diversify. He put all his money in Ford Motor Company and got stinking rich. The guys at IBM, same thing. I could go on and on. Now, after they get rich, they start diversifying because the brokers tell them they have to. But if you want to get rich, find the right investment.
Let's view and then focus and concentrate. That's how you get rich. You don't get rich diversifying. You certainly don't get rich with a 60 40 portfolio.
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