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I want to look ahead uh to see what investors should um look for in 2016 Mark where should investors Place their money next year well uh I just read the other day Baron's cover and not one strategist was negative about the stock market in 2016 I think the US Stock Market will go down in 2016 I think 10 years us treasuries are quite attractive because of my outlook for a weakening economy and actually I believe that we're already entering a recession in the United States then Emerging Markets as you know have underperformed grossly the us since 2011 I think it may still be slightly premature to make a major commitment into Emerging Markets but they're moving moving into a buying range and then I like real estate in the countryside in Portugal Spain Italy and in Indochina Indochina being essentially Vietnam Laos Cambodia Myanmar Thailand and I think the Vietnamese stock market is very attractive uh as the economy continues to perform exceedingly well Frank where do you see Commodities headed I mean that will determine a lot of how Emerging Markets uh will perform I think Commodities are under pressure now because of the debt levels themselves you have a slowing World economy um there's a lot of questionable statistics that come out of China but I think you can look at the uh the commodity prices as a pretty good indication of what's going on in China and I think China is also a function of its customers uh you have debt Laden Japan debt Laden United States debt lad Laden Euro Zone and I think all of all of that debt is putting pressure on commodity prices as production slows down in so I I think for the initial term Commodities are going to continue to stay weak I agree with Mark I think uh uh the debt burdens of the world really are going to put us in a if not in a recession uh at a a very slow growth uh TR trory but um there is going to come a point and again a lot of Economics is predicting people and that's where it becomes so difficult but uh I think there will come a point where the slowdown in the economy will force another QE um and maybe this time uh something um of a more direct nature similar to what Australia did in 2009 they sent a check of $900 for every man woman and child uh below a certain income level and that bypassed essentially the uh Reserve banking system and so I if things slow down enough and commodity prices get low enough you'll probably see um some more direct monetization I just want to go back to you mark real quickly you called out the persistent optimism of the strategist at the cover of Barons but stocks usually do go up every year or do go up most years throughout history whereas people who are perpetually negative are usually on the wrong side of things so even if occasionally stocks do go down and of course that happens isn't General optimism the right way to think about things we just have a few moments I think the right way to think about any investment is to think realistically and realistically us equities are expensive the median uh PE is high the market this year hasn't performed well the typical stock it's been driven by just a few shares uh the fun stocks Facebook uh Netflix Amazon and Google right that were particularly strong but the median stock didn't perform well
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