Marc Faber: U.S. Stock Market Will Go Down in 2016

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결론: 2016년 미국 주식시장은 하락할 것이며 미국채 10년물이 매력적이라는 비관적 전망. 미국 증시·경기: 2016년 미국 주식시장은 하락할 것으로 봄. 경기가 약화되고 이미 미국이 경기침체에 진입하고 있다고 판단. 미국채: 경기 약화 전망을 근거로 10년물 국채가 매력적이라고 주장. 신흥국: 2011년 이후 미국 대비 크게 부진했으나 아직 본격 투자하기엔 이르고 매수 구간에 진입 중. 베트남 증시가 경제 호조로 특히 매력적이라고 언급. 부동산: 포르투갈·스페인·이탈리아 시골 부동산과 인도차이나(베트남·라오스·캄보디아·미얀마·태국) 부동산에 관심. 원자재: 부채 부담과 세계 경제 둔화로 원자재 가격이 압박받고 있어 당분간 약세 지속 전망. 중국 통계 신뢰도에 의문을 제기하며 원자재 가격을 중국 경기 지표로 활용. 세계 경제·정책: 전 세계 부채 부담으로 경기 침체 또는 극저성장 가능성. 경기 둔화가 심해지면 추가 양적완화(QE), 특히 호주 2009년식 직접 현금 지급 같은 직접적 화폐 발행이 나올 수 있다고 봄. 시장 낙관론 반박: 월가 전략가들의 낙관론(Barron's 커버)에 반대. 주식은 장기적으로 오르는 경향이 있지만 현실적으로 보면 미국 주식은 비싸고 중간값 PER이 높으며, 올해 상승은 페이스북·넷플릭스·아마존·구글 등 소수 종목 주도였고 일반 종목은 부진했다고 지적. 출연자 전망: 프랭크(사회자/진행자 측)와 함께 대체로 약세 전망에 동의하며 위 논지를 강화.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. I want to look ahead uh to see what investors should um look for in 2016 Mark where should investors Place their money next year well uh I just read the other day Baron's cover and not one strategist was negative about the stock market in 2016 I think the US Stock Market will go down in 2016 I think 10 years us treasuries are quite attractive because of my outlook for a weakening economy and actually I believe that we're already entering a recession in the United States then Emerging Markets as you know have underperformed grossly the us since 2011 I think it may still be slightly premature to make a major commitment into Emerging Markets but they're moving moving into a buying range and then I like real estate in the countryside in Portugal Spain Italy and in Indochina Indochina being essentially Vietnam Laos Cambodia Myanmar Thailand and I think the Vietnamese stock market is very attractive uh as the economy continues to perform exceedingly well Frank where do you see Commodities headed I mean that will determine a lot of how Emerging Markets uh will perform I think Commodities are under pressure now because of the debt levels themselves you have a slowing World economy um there's a lot of questionable statistics that come out of China but I think you can look at the uh the commodity prices as a pretty good indication of what's going on in China and I think China is also a function of its customers uh you have debt Laden Japan debt Laden United States debt lad Laden Euro Zone and I think all of all of that debt is putting pressure on commodity prices as production slows down in so I I think for the initial term Commodities are going to continue to stay weak I agree with Mark I think uh uh the debt burdens of the world really are going to put us in a if not in a recession uh at a a very slow growth uh TR trory but um there is going to come a point and again a lot of Economics is predicting people and that's where it becomes so difficult but uh I think there will come a point where the slowdown in the economy will force another QE um and maybe this time uh something um of a more direct nature similar to what Australia did in 2009 they sent a check of $900 for every man woman and child uh below a certain income level and that bypassed essentially the uh Reserve banking system and so I if things slow down enough and commodity prices get low enough you'll probably see um some more direct monetization I just want to go back to you mark real quickly you called out the persistent optimism of the strategist at the cover of Barons but stocks usually do go up every year or do go up most years throughout history whereas people who are perpetually negative are usually on the wrong side of things so even if occasionally stocks do go down and of course that happens isn't General optimism the right way to think about things we just have a few moments I think the right way to think about any investment is to think realistically and realistically us equities are expensive the median uh PE is high the market this year hasn't performed well the typical stock it's been driven by just a few shares uh the fun stocks Facebook uh Netflix Amazon and Google right that were particularly strong but the median stock didn't perform well