저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Marc Faber는 미국이 이미 경기침체에 있거나 임박했다고 보며, 2016년 증시와 경제가 어려울 것이라는 비관적 전망을 제시했다. 미국 경기 근거로는 수출, 산업생산, 최근 자동차 판매, 신용 증가세 둔화, 2015년 원자재와 주식의 부진을 꼽았다. 2015년에는 비트코인 보유자를 제외하고 대부분 자산이 부진했고, 미국 지수는 소수 종목(약 20개)이 떠받쳐 상대적으로 견조했을 뿐이라고 설명했다. 연준은 2010~2011년경부터 금리 인상을 미뤄왔고, 2015년 12월 경기침체 직전에 인상한 것이 통화정책 최대 실패가 될 것이라고 비판했다. 채권 측면에서는 경기가 약하면 금리는 하락 가능성이 크므로 10년물·30년물 미국채가 투자 기회를 줄 수 있다고 봤다. 독일채와 미국채 10년물 스프레드가 최근 가장 벌어져 있어, 미국채 롱·독일채 숏 전략도 언급했다. 미국 S&P500은 지난 5월 2,134 고점을 찍었고 그 뒤 20~40% 하락할 수 있다고 전망했다(12월 기준 현 수준보다 낮을 것으로 봄). 중국에 대해서는 수출입 통계와 원자재 가격이 이미 1년 반 이상 둔화를 보였다며 비관적으로 봤다. 중국 신용 버블이 존재하며 철강 등 일부 부문은 이미 hard landing을 겪었다고 평가했다. 위안화 절하 등 정책 여지는 있으나 실물경기에 미치는 효과는 제한적일 것이라고 봤다. 자산시장 전반은 1981년 이후 거대한 자산 인플레이션 국면이었으며, 주식·부동산·채권·예술품 모두 타이타닉처럼 함께 하락할 수 있다고 주장했다. 신흥국 주식은 이미 크게 하락해 10년 관점에서 미국보다 매력적이라고 봤고, 금과 금광주는 매우 침체되어 있어 가격이 두 배가 될 수 있는 반면 하방 위험은 제한적이라고 평가했다. 달러는 강세를 기대하기 어렵다는 입장이다. 출연자 전망: 미국 경기침체 진행 중, 미국 증시 20~40% 조정, 미국채 10·30년물 매수 유리, 금·금광주 상승 여력, 신흥국이 미국보다 유리, 중국 경기 둔화 및 신용버블 붕괴 위험.
다듬은 글
you said Mark you said a couple of days ago that basically you think the US is probably in a recession what makes you say that are are there a specific number of data checks that you're looking at well if I look at exports if I look at industrial production and uh recent car sales and the slowing down of credit growth and in particular the Dismal performance of Commodities and also of equities last year when you talk about Doom and Gloom for this year 2016 I have to point out that in 2015 with the exception of people that held Bitcoins uh the performance of all asset classes has been uh poorer and in the US Stock Market uh the indices have held up relatively well because they are driven by say 20 stocks whereas the majority of stocks is already down 20% or more so I think the FED has created an environment uh by inflating asset prices where future Returns on assets whether it's art or bonds or stocks or real estate will be poorer and so Mark if we look into 2016 given what you've said first of all can the Fed afford to hike rates anymore this year and what's your outlook for stocks and bonds over the next 12 months I think Miss Yellen will go into the financial history books for having waited with Mr banki to increase interest rates since essentially 2010 2011 when they should have done it when the economy had some momentum until right before a recession in the Us in December 2015 I think that will be the biggest joke and failure of monetary policies by uh the monetary authorities in recent history so Mark where do you see the tenure by the end of the year the tenure Treasury and and what do you see gvy doing in general well when you talk about gloom and doom this is one sector that I think offers investor some potential 10 and 30 years treasury bonds because if the economy is as weak as I think it will be then interest rates are more likely to come down then going up number two uh your previous U person that was interviewed he said uh government bonds are a good short well we have to distinguish the spread between 10 years us treasuries and 10 years German bonds is at the widest it's been in recent years so I think if someone wanted to really do something he should go long 10 years us treasuries and short bonds all right Mark where do you see the S&P 500 come December 2016 well I don't know I think it will be lower than it is today all right how concerned are you so so that's the US so you're expecting some kind of a correction I guess in US markets what happens in China L sorry I believe the stock market in the US peaked out last May on the S&P 2,134 and that will go down 20 to 40% from that level okay interesting what's your take on China we see we saw a lot of volatility a lot of brutality on the markets over last 3 days is there a disconnect between the markets and the fundamentals of the economy well there is a disconnect between real economic activity in the world and asset prices uh most everywhere where with a few exceptions where markets have really adjusted significantly on the downside but in general uh markets asset prices are high and economic activity in real terms is very poor and in China it was evident already for 2 years that the economy was slowing down but the eternally optimistic fund managers that essentially have to advertise their products to make money they of course remain bullish about Chinese economy and this is something I will never understand that people pay attention to the statistics that the Chinese government publishes when other statistics are much more reliable say Import and Export figures out of thawan to China they pointed out to a meaningful slowdown already for one and a half years commodity prices pointed out to a meaningful slowdown so in my view the Chinese economy yes you're not seeing a hard Landing right I mean a meaningful slowdown is different to a hard landing and at this point you think we'll get so a lot of volatility on markets and how much will thean be corrected by I think we had a hard Landing in the stock market already and we had a hard Landing in Commodities and we might have a hard Landing in the economy uh we have a colossal credit bubble in China and how it will unwind wind we don't know it may happen through significant weakness in the R&B although it's not sure it could also happen through significant uh weakness in the economy and some sectors of the economy in China like steel production they already have experienced hard landing and by sense I would rather be overly cautious on China than overly optimistic uh Mark we've also seen like today we've seen you know the spread between the offshore and the onshore one widen by so much at what point does it become problematic for Chinese leaders well it may not be that problematic because they could essentially let the Yuan float down uh whether that would help the economy much is very debatable because in the case of Japan it hasn't helped at all in the case of Europe it hasn't really helped so these currency devaluations uh have relatively minor impact on real economic activity but this is an option China has they could also print money they can buy assets they can support the stock market uh central banks and governments can manipulate markets uh essentially almost endlessly until the final collapse occurs but whether the collapse occurs through the currency or through asset prices or a credit implosion is H not very clear at this point right but let's take a step back so you're pessimistic or you're very cautious on China uh I I would say pessimistic Mar you say that the US is in a recession is there a bright spot in 2016 or should we actually worry a lot more than we are at the moment I think that investors Overlook the fact that we have been in a colossal uh asset inflation period since 1981 When government bond yields in the US the 10 years peaked out at close to 16% and since then bonds have ried stocks have ried real estate has rallied globally and we had an explosion of credit in the world and we have had decelerating real economic activity accelerating productivity growth and so we have this asset bubble and I think that the next thing that will happen is that all the asset markets like the Titanic will crash it won't matter very much whether you own a Picasso or the SNP it's all going to go down and I have to say I mean you're pretty jovial for someone who's predicting a huge correction on the markets uh Mark are we talking a 20% correction I mean when you talk about the Titanic it you're almost suggesting that you know it could fall by half could be but many markets in dollar terms have already declined by 50% and currencies have been very weak against the US dollar now this year 2016 everybody's bullish about the US dollar but I don't see any reason why the US dollar should be very strong Maybe someone can argue well it's in a better position than other countries but other countries have now valuations that are more reasonable say if you put a gun on my head and say you have to choose you can buy emerging markets that have underperformed the us since 2011 or the US and the time Horizon is 10 years then I would say I would buy Emerging Markets I happen to think it's too early but I would rather be for the next 10 years in Emerging Markets than in the US I would also own some gold and gold shares this is the asset class that is very very depressed and where I could see a doubling of prices easily with a limited downside risk all right Mark on that note I'm afraid we're running out of time but I could talk to you for the whole day so you'll have to come back um with very spirited conversation there from Tha was yeah me too Mark Faber the author of The Gloom boom and doom report thank you so much for joining us
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