저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 미국 주식은 고평가라 신중해야 하며, 장기적으로는 금·은·백금·팔라듐이 가장 선호되는 통화 역할을 할 것이라는 입장. 미국 주식시장: 현재 완전히 반영되었거나 과대평가 상태이며, 이익이 하락할 가능성이 커 주식 투자에 대해 신중하라고 밝힘. 세계 경제: 전 세계적으로 경제 활동이 둔화되고 있다고 진단. 섹터별 차별화: 지수 펀드보다 섹터 강점을 활용하는 능동적 운용이 유리해질 것으로 봄. 최근 12~24개월간 많은 섹터가 크게 하락했으며, 금광주는 2011년 이후 80~90% 하락 후 올해 거의 100% 반등. 아시아 시장: 말레이시아·태국·인도네시아 증시는 올해 달러 기준 9~12% 상승. 마카오 카지노주: 지난해 말 중국 경기 우려로 크게 하락해 상대적으로 매력적인 수준이라고 판단, 상승 움직임 시작. 금광 섹터: 금광 섹터가 새로운 강세장(bull market)에 진입했다고 봄. 중국: 2009년 경기침체 후 2014년 이후 중국 주식이 100% 상승한 시기에 강세 전망을 가졌으나, 현재 주가가 크게 하락한 상태. 단기 문제는 심각하나 장기적으로는 유망한 투자처라고 봄. 다만 현재 싼 가격은 아니라고 명시. 금·달러: 금 자체에 대해서도 강세 입장과 연결. 미국 10년물 국채 금리는 약 1.93%이며, 독일·프랑스 등 유럽은 마이너스 금리가 많아 상대적으로 달러 자산이 매력적. 단, FED가 추가 금리 인하나 마이너스 금리를 도입하지 않는다는 조건 하에서 달러는 무난하나 바람직한 통화는 아니라고 봄. 리스크/조건: 중국 단기 리스크, FED 정책 변화, 미국 이익 하락이 주요 변수.
다듬은 글
the last time we spoke you're clearly bearish on on your view of the global economy and the global markets how does this factor in now how does that change that view if at all the terrorist attacks that is uh I haven't changed my view I think uh what we have is in the US a stock market that is basically if not fully priced then overvalued given that the earnings will rather come down and around the world we see a a Slowdown in economic activity so overall I'd be rather cautious about investments in equities however over the last uh 12 to 24 months many sectors have had huge declines say you take gold mining shares since 2011 they dropped 80 90% And so this year they had a strong rebound many any gold Shares are up close to 100% And I think what will happen is that the market will turn into more active management of equities in other words away from index funds and that will favor uh managers that take advantage of sector strengths we also have this year say Malaysia Thailand Indonesia these markets are up in dollar terms between 9 and 12% so different sectors will move at different times sure and I see here and there some opportunities what are the opportunities in your view right now Mark well I think that in um Asia the sentiment turned very bearish at the end of last year and especially concerning China and the Chinese economy and as a result of that uh maau gaming companies casinos in maau got slaughtered and now they are in my view at the relatively attractive level they started to move up Sans China wind China and so forth these equities are in my opinion quite attractive and I still feel the mining sector has embarked on a new bull market hey hey Market it's Tim Seymour and I just want to ask you a question because you've been so bearish for so long and you're talking about constructive things you see in China uh and yet the rest of the I think the market public largely thinks China is one of the biggest issues out there where are you now versus where you were in ' 09 on China well in ' 09 we had just gone through a recession and actually I turned quite bullish about China in 2014 before for the 100% rise in Chinese equities uh now that stocks have again declined very substantially I have to say uh given the size of the country and given the variety of different sectors there are some opportunities from a longer per term perspective I don't think it's a bargain by any means but I believe that China despite its near term problems that could be very substantial will in the long run be a rewarding investment destination uh Mark you mentioned gold miners and your belief that this uh is a start of a of a full Market uh for gold miners that does that necessarily mean that you're also bullish gold itself which has had a nice run you're to date and is that inherently a call on the US dollar as well yes I don't understand why the world is is uh so enthusiastic about the US dollar I think in the long run the US dollar will be a weak currency having said that you see I can buy now a 10 years US Treasury at the yield of 1.93% and in Germany France Europe I have in many cases negative interest ratees so because of the yield different difference real differential I think that actually the US dollar provided the FED doesn't cut interest rates again and provided the F doesn't int introduce negative interest rates provided all these conditions I think the US dollar should be okay but not the desirable currency and that's why I think the most desirable currency will be gold silver platinum and uh padium got it Mark thanks so much for phoning in we appreciate it
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