저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
BofA 애널리스트 John Murphy가 테슬라 투자의견 매수 유지, 목표가를 $350에서 $400로 상향. 방문 후 2025년 성장 자신감 근거로 저가형 EV(3만 달러 미만 목표), 로보택시, 옵티머스, 감독형 자율주행 수익성을 제시. 진행자는 선행 PER 113배의 높은 밸류에이션을 이유로 긍정 의견에 동조하지 않음. 테슬라는 우수한 기업이나 전망이 이미 밸류에이션에 반영됐다고 판단.
다듬은 글
more great news today for Tesla stock investors as a Bank of America analyst upgrades the price Target on Tesla stock I'll go over that price Target upgrade hich seemingly keep getting more good news day after day ever since the election results in early November esla stock is popping today on bullish comments from Bank of America Securities with the firm analyst fresh off a visit to the Giga Austin Factory the analysts saying that the trip gave them more confidence that Tesla is well positioned to grow in 2025 plus with its core EV business and launch of its Robo taxi offering and longer term from its investments in Optimus John Murphy wrote in a note to investors Murphy also reiterated the buy rating on Tesla stock and increased the price Target to $400 per share up from $350 per share thus sending Tesla stock 3% higher on the back of that news in fact Tesla stock is now trading at $370 per share up 3.3% on the back of this news so the analyst from Bank of America rightly Claims the first biggest driver for Tesla is the prospect of an upcoming lowcost electric vehicle this is an actual real product that's uh expecting to come out which Tesla said is coming in the first half of 2025 now they believe that this product will be less than will be priced at less than $30,000 now I would be surprised if it will be priced at less than $30,000 and still generate a positive profit margin for Tesla um the reason I say that is because whenever Tesla Management in recent quarters has been asked about you know they've been talking about a $25,000 model for you know five six years now and then now that it's time to actually launch that $225,000 model they've been deflecting questions on that model they've been saying things like well you know you don't really understand our business if you're asking us about a lower priced car because that's not what's important to our business longer term you should be asking us about our driverless car technology because that's what's going to drive our valuation up to several trillion dollars more and and or ask us about the Optimus robot which is also going to add trillions of dollars to our bottom line so because of the way Tesla's management has been uh avoiding questions about the lower priced model I've kind of lowered the probability that it will be anywhere near $25,000 and what this analyst is saying is they believe it's going to be under $30,000 which would be really close to 25,000 and given the rising inflationary pressure over these last six or seven years that would be a remarkable achievement that would be basically hitting $225,000 price point on an inflation adjusted basis so it would be Tesla actually hitting a Target that they set out for themselves which is rare for Tesla right usually they make these predictions of things that they're going to do and it doesn't pan out anywhere near what they were predicting but because their predictions were like way way up here and they end up hitting like way down here it's still much better than any of their competitors right Tesla is by far the best electric vehicle company in terms of Revenue in terms of profits in terms of cash flow terms of margins all of which Tesla's Best in Class um so a model at less than $30,000 would be extremely bullish especially if they can produce this model at a positive gross margin which would be very difficult to achieve given the higher cost of production given um all of the headwinds Tesla faces um and then on top of that if they can get that $30,000 out to the market and some percentage of those people that buy that car are going to end up adding the supervised self-driving to their purchase and that's the real margin product there is that supervised self-driving that's a very high margin product and Tesla hopes to generate more people purchasing that product even if they don't get the robo tax out right again this highlights management strategy right they're you know shooting for you know Robo taxis millions of Robo taxis on the road right which is a target like way way difficult Target but even if they don't hit that Target but they end up selling um supervised self-driving to you know 25 to 50% of the people that buy Tesla cars and you know selling it at a price of you know roughly $100 a month or a few thousand dollar up uh UPF front if you want to B buy that that's a very high margin product that's going to generate uh hundreds of millions if not billions in revenue and profit for Tesla so even if they aim for something way up here and they hit something something like a little bit uh a lot lower than that it's still going to be so much better than any of the competitors and it's still going to generate billions in revenue and profitability so this has been a strategy that's worked for Tesla it motivates employees because they feel like they're going for something really big and even if they can't achieve that really big Target they still achieve something that's much better than any of the rivals and so this model here the $30,000 model would be huge in the first half of of next year so this analyst was also bullish because they took a ride in the cybertruck and the model y using supervised self-driving and the car performed really well and so they're bullish on how effective the supervised self-driving is in Tesla vehicles and so they're bullish on the prospects of that again even if it doesn't develop into the full Robo taxi where you're going to have millions of these driving themselves on the roads even if it doesn't develop into that even if it just develops into a product at 25 to 50% of Tesla owners add on to their purchase of Tesla cars that's going to drive a huge boost in Tesla's revenue and profitability because that's just going to be incremental margin right they've already made the investments in the software to offer this technology and so each incremental purchase adds a significant sum to the bottom line so Tesla stock price is soaring but so is the valuation now I have here Tesla's forward price to earnings value is 113 it's about the highest it's ever been going all the way back to January of 2022 but remember in January of 2022 Tesla's Revenue growth rates were over 60% with much higher profit margins but right now it's trading at a similar valuation to January of 2022 when the growth rate is a fraction of where it was maybe 10% of where it was so a lot of the valuation right now is incorporating all of those positive prospects in the future so I don't share this enthusiasm for Tesla stock as this Bank of America analyst shares although I do agree that the company is delivering Innovative products the lower priced EV is going to be huge for the company's growth prospects adding more customers at a more affordable price point driving competitors out of business that's going to be a huge positive for Tesla and the supervised self-driving those are very positive to the company's profit margins all of that I think is offset by the incredibly High valuation of 113 so that's why I don't share the the positive sentiments it's just because of the valuation I agree the company is an excellent company way ahead of the competitors and it will continue to do very well in this industry regardless of the industry is booming or if the industry is declining Tesla will do well against the competition I just think that all of those prospects are already more than accounted for in the valuation
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