저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
AI 대장주 엔비디아와 팔란티어를 매출성장률, 영업이익률, ROIC, EPS 성장 전망, 선행 PER로 비교. 엔비디아가 성장성·수익성·밸류에이션 모두에서 우위라 장기 투자자에게 더 나은 선택이라고 결론. 팔란티어는 밸류에이션 프리미엄이 과도하다고 평가. 자막상 면책 고지 포함.
다듬은 글
paler and Nvidia stocks have been the hottest AI stocks in 2024 both of their performance has been incredible to be sure but which one is the better AI stock to buy today comparing these two AI stocks on Revenue growth on profit margin on cash flow from operations on valuation and considering the company's 5year for or several years ahead forecast on earnings per share today let's start with Revenue growth and what we'll notice is nvidia's separation from palente here in recent quarters separating itself Revenue growth of 93% in the latest quarter compared to 30% for palen here in fact Nvidia had several consecutive quarters where its Revenue growth exceeded 200% and this is even though Nvidia is a much larger company than paler and revenue growth is more difficult for a larger company because there is less room for upside if you're already generating $2 billion in Revenue despite those constraints Nvidia has managed excellent Revenue growth and I suspect this will continue for several quarters more before Nvidia saturates the market it's penetrating right now paler meanwhile is accelerating Revenue growth it's making great progress in penetrating the Enterprise Market it had long found found great success with governments especially domestic governments but it's now making its services more broadly available to Enterprises which is opening up a bigger market for Palante here and I suspect their revenue growth will continue robustly over several years as well the next thing I wanted to compare these two on is their operating profit margin again you'll notice Nvidia with an advantage here at 62.7% of operating profit margin this is among the best of any of the companies that I follow off the top of my head I think only Visa surpasses Nvidia in operating profit margin of all the companies you've seen me follow paler meanwhile is way behind at 13.8% but it's improving at a more quicker rate than Nvidia you'll see the trend line of its operating profit margin rising from negative 120% in 2021 all the way up to 13.8% here in the latest update palente here forecasting profits will continue expanding as it's done an excellent job controlling costs while revenues are increasing Nvidia also forecasting continued increases in profitability as the companies introducing the latest generation Blackwell technology the initial ramp up will bring down gross profit margins slightly but management forecasting that gross profit margins will rise again in the back half of the Year remember and video is saying that its technology is sold out for at least the next few quarters and when you have Supply that's not enough to meet demand it allows you to generate premium prices which creates higher and higher profit margins and that's what you're seeing from Nvidia and that's what Nvidia is forecasting for at least the next few quarters the next metric to look at is the return on invested capital and this measures how good a company is at taking investors money investing it in research and development to create products and services that customers will buy and the skill in this is one of the most critical skills investors would like to see from a company this is a core competency this is what you're in business for right to take money turn it into products and services sell those products and services at a profit Nvidia has done an excellent job in this 107% in this metric compared to just 12% for paler but again palente here's pace of improvement is excellent growing from negative 400% in 2021 all the way up to 12.27% and I wouldn't be surprised if en if paler continues to improve this metric I suspect the Gap to narrow over the next 5 years in this metric especially looking ahead what I have on the chart here is earnings per share growth estimates over the next 5 years so in 2024 by 585 per compared to 150% for palente here both excellent growth rates but this Gap is going to narrow over the next few years in 2025 they're both going to deliver a little over 140% earnings per share growth as expected by Wall Street analysts that are forecasting these numbers for palent here and Nvidia in 2026 nvidia's earnings per share is expected to decelerate to 45% increase where palente here expected to decelerate to 25% and then further decelerations here for NVIDIA going down to 24 then 20 and then- 4.8% earnings per share growth for NVIDIA in 2029 whereas in that year palente here still expected to increase its earnings per share by 27% so is expected to decelerate for NVIDIA that's to be expected the company can't continue increasing earnings per share at the six at the near 600% rate it will in 2024 but the Slowdown is something that happens to all businesses that grow in a rapid rate in the near term they slow down to more realistic terms in the long run now that we've looked at all of the company's critical metrics let's compare the valuation and I chose to use paler is more than four times as expensive as envidia it's trading at a forward price to earnings of 135 compared to Nvidia which is trading at a forward price to earnings of 32 A2 now out of all the metrics we looked at we didn't see a clear distinct Advantage for palente tier in any of those categories Nvidia had a better roic better operating profit margin better Revenue growth earnings per share was mixed you can argue that paler has better earnings per share prospects over the next 5 years compared to Nvidia over the next 5 years but that was really the only metric where you could even argue that paler had an advantage so given all of these prospects given the valuation I don't feel paler deserves this much of a premium over Nvidia stock so if I was looking for an AI stock to buy today and I was a long-term investor I would choose Nvidia stock over paler stock of course this is for informational purposes only please conduct your own due diligence before making a purchase I have dozens and dozens of videos on each of these two companies so if you were curious and you want to learn more please subscribe and check out those video







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