저자: Kevin · 외국인
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경기 침체 우려가 커지고 있으며, 소비 관련 기업(달러제너럴 등)의 실적 악화와 저축률 하락, 파산 증가가 근거로 제시됨. 대형 기업은 역전된 수익률곡선 속에서 오히려 이자 부담이 낮아 버티고 있는 반면, 중소형 기업과 소비주는 취약함. 현 시점에선 소비주 노출을 줄이고 기업 IT 지출 수혜 종목(엔비디아, 세일즈포스 등) 쪽이 유리하다는 시각. 장기적으로는 낙관적이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
we're going to have a real economic contraction be in the in the teeth of a very tough recession and that makes everything much more intense there's actually big trouble there is something really weird happening in the economy and we need to talk about it and in this video we're also going to talk specifically about what might be causing it because it is a weird dilemma that hasn't happened before and it's leading a lot of people to say is this time different but is that different maybe really bad for certain companies in this video we're going to break it all down because it's turning and it's coupon expiration day and I got like three flights to hop on today so it's going to be a long day of replying to your bundle coupon emails over at staff at meetkevin.com where you can bundle up if you'd like courses on building your wealth price goes up after today especially as we get into the house hack fundraise and of course licensed Financial advice at stack.com will also be going up in price link down below okay look so Dollar General just reported a disaster this morning their stocks down like 16.5% uh they are expecting to take another $100 million in annual shrink impact in other words theft things are so bad people are just stealing more from the dollar store that's how bad it is people are stealing from the dollar store and their sales continue to hit a wall throughout August even though they weren't even reporting the August quarter they were just answering commentary about August in their earnings call and now they actually got downgraded from JP Morgan after such a bad result this kind of aligns with what Capital One and AMX told us about small businesses and uh individual consumers somewhat hitting a wall in the summer Capital One talked about it Target talked about it Best Buy talked about it Home Depot talked about it I think it's I hate to say it but it's somewhat becoming uh ubiquitous that consumers are substantially experiencing pain combine this with what we're seeing with okay great we got our pce numbers today personal incomes fell to 2% on the month gains so yes personal incomes went up but very low less than expected the personal savings rate fell back into the threes back to just 3.5% which is poultry I mean we saved more money in 2009 and 10 coming out of the recession of 2008 than we're saving right now and uh we we like to call it super core inflation came in actually at the highest level since January that's no bueno by the way okay highest level since January means a 46% read now of course some fed Watchers are saying well that was really driven by portfolio management so now people are looking at what they call the super duper core inflation which takes out portfolio management which could be a little bit more volatile and then inflation is only 0.25% at the same time we continue to get jobless claims or jobs added numbers that get revised worse over time leading a lot of people to say we've got some serious problems so the question then is why could the stock market be doing so well and what else could be causing massive potential issues well we have a fantastic piece from society gener the Frenchies okay and and they're going to give us a really interesting take on this listen to this history shows that economists do actually predict recessions but the problem is they end up giving up on their recession forecasts right before the recession arrives it's kind of like the bus stop dilemma where you wait for a bus and you're like this is taking way longer than I expected so you start walking to your destination and basically as soon as you walk to start walking to your destination but you're too far away to walk back to the bus stop the Bus shows up so the recession shows up after you've already u-turned okay maybe we w't have a recession well the reason they suggest this is because when you look outside the mega cap tech companies there's actually big trouble they mention it in fact they say that usually the Us corporate sector is a massive borrower borrowing money and living off of debt we already know we're in a pretty big debt bubble now I personally don't believe this is the cycle where our debt bubble collapses this is why I'm more bullish than I am bearish this obviously being concerning news but I don't believe that this is the cycle that we actually go through the real big great reset that will come in the future the dollarization will come in the future but we've got other problems right now and those other problems are in part broken down by Society generally so what they say is that if you look at the total interest expense of companies you're actually going to expect that the interest expense of companies is going to go up as rates go up but that's not actually what happened in aggregate that is all companies together interest expense didn't really go up at all in fact it went down now this is super counterintuitive why when the FED funds rate goes up the blue line here would you have the red line net interest payments go down all while at the same time you're finding more bankruptcies happening SNP reports 402 corporate bankruptcies so this year nearly on par with the 407 scene in the pandemic of 2020 and only surpassed by the great Global financial crisis okay so what's actually happening well their argument is the following they basically say and I translate it here on the left and I wrote LOL WTF remember the whole inverted yield curve okay inverted yield curve means short-term deposits are paying higher yields than long-term loans in other words s because of the inverted yield curve the richest companies think the apples the Facebooks the Amazon the Microsoft the Teslas the richest companies are able to borrow at 10 20 30-year debt at cheaper rates than they're able to make on their cash deposits think about that for a moment you could literally be apple and be like hey we've got $100 million in cash let's invest it at5 % treasury bills or somehow get it into money markets where we're earning 5 to 6% and then let's borrow that 100 million back on a 10year basis well wait a minute the 10e is only charging us about 4% so we're getting charged 4% on the 10e we're paying for that interest on the 10e with money market money that we're getting at 5 to 6% so in other words you're literally getting paid if you have a real good corporate credit score like the big companies do you're literally getting paid to borrow long and deposit short it is like the total perversion of the yield curve usually you get an inversion of the yield curve because all of a sudden people are like oh crap recession's coming we've got Mass layoffs coming everything's about to hit the fan and that could still happen but this is a massive perversion of what you would expect in fact they literally right interest rates simply aren't working as they once did this is very strange so then what they do is they say the largest 10% of companies do not care about interest rate increases the largest 10% of companies if you look at the S&P 500 for example uh and uh because the okay so what they do is they put a chart up here of the S&P 1500 this is a little confusing I'm going to try to break it down the S&P 1500 is broken down into the S&P 500 which is large caps 600 small 400 midc caps you add that all together it's 500 companies okay if you take the top like the the largest 10% of the 1,500 you may as well just go down to company 150 in the S&P 500 that is Carrier which is a $48 billion stock in other words if you have a company that you're investing in that has a more than $48 billion market cap it's probably over here on the right side where your effective interest rate is the red line on the bottom so see that red line on the bottom there how your effective interest rate basically hasn't gone up at all you're pretty Gucci the same is true for companies even in the middle 40% the middle 40% is probably going to be somewhere between your $5 billion market cap to your $48 billion market cap that's probably your mid-range right there those companies have seen an increase in their effective interest rate but nowhere near as much much as those lower or smaller companies that light blue line basically if your market cap of the company you're investing in is under $2 billion there's a good chance you're getting reamed with high your interest rate expenses and after all this by the way and we're going to get to some conclusions here especially what I think about this but these by the way are the kind of perspectives that we like to think about in the course member live streams which remember if you're part of the course member live streams you have access to them forever for as long as I do course member live streams which I've been doing them since like 2018 and I love doing them every single day the market is open you get to be part of them with me ask me questions throw Q&A at me throw your situations at me your stocks at me we do the analysis together you throw your real estate at me we'll analyze it together we have a lot of fun in them so if you want to be part of the group who will get first dibs on house hack they might buy all of the shares last time they almost bought all of the shares and this cycle we're limited by how much we can raise uh then make sure you're part of the group be the first to know and first to qualify to invest in house Haack by being a course member yes we have a coupon expiration the reason the price goes up over time is because I keep adding more value and more content to these courses I've got some course lecture releases coming within the next few days we're going to be posting those and those are always added for free for existing members so there's really no reason not to join check that out by going to meetkevin.com email us if you'd like a bundle at staff and meetkevin.com okay so what does all of this mean in terms of what Society General is telling us and the pain for the consumer well the first thing that in my opinion it means is we have to be careful with consumer exposed stocks unfortunately a lot of things are consumer exposed so the best potential plays in this environment and it sounds like a broken record but you look at the companies that are beating it's no surprise right now the companies that are beating are companies like Salesforce and that's because they have a lot of Enterprise customers the Enterprise customers are the mega caps so you almost want to be investing right now where the mega cap companies are spending money so wherever the mega cap companies are spending money that's where you want to go if that's Nvidia if it's Salesforce if it's snowflake if it's cyber security although you know there's some question about some of these because you know even spend in cyber security has slowed down uh these might end up being places to pay attention to though crowd strike has performed pretty well uh over the last few months certainly in 2023 you could look at another one like Cloud flare would be another option they haven't performed as well as crowd strike but also done decently well uh and so what are companies that basically the big companies are spending money on and maybe that's where you hide as a stock investor uh so the consumer exposed side seems to be the most pained however the flip side then is what happens when that flip-flops what happens when the consumer ends up in a better place and interest rates start coming down okay that could happen but is it going to happen before something breaks well this is where I kind of wrote down a cheat sheet here you go in the hopium scenario you hope that artificial intelligence spend Capital expenditures at Big Mega caps all increase at the same time as inflation goes away so the FED can cut rates that's your soft Landing your hopium scenario the bad scenario is you run out of time something breaks and you end up with mass layoffs which really kill the consumer before you end up well uh having um having the FED step in to uh save the day right but by then so much has already broken you probably end up having more pain this I think is why you're seeing the lowest wage increases at smaller companies it's also why you're seeing the senior loan officer opinion survey show that Banks willingness to lend to small and large companies alike has plunged to recessionary lendingsuite.co it's okay because the mega cap companies can easily issue their own bonds so they don't actually have to rely on banks whereas the smaller businesses do and that just ends up killing the smaller businesses which is usually where you are exposed to uh entertainment Hospitality more local small consumer spend stores and this is where you really got to ask yourself how much do you want to be exposed to the consumer or are we at the point where it's time to buy the dip on the consumer I'm not convinced that it's time personally to buy the dip dip on the consumer I am convinced that there are opportunities that long-term will end up still winning but I want to narrow my exposure to the consumer for example I think Tesla and N phase probably enough exposure to the consumer both of those stocks suffer if the consumer falters which they kind of have been the question is have you passed the bottom yet in the case of end phase are you at the bottom nobody knows the question on the flip side then is do you just hide in some of those Enterprise related Hardware or software companies until the consumer definitely flips back to positive so far it doesn't seem like the consumer recovery is here yet and that is flagging big red flags for some of these institutional analysts and I'll tell you the explanation that the mega caps are pulling everything up makes a lot of sense when you consider the weird perversion of the yield curve inversion actually helping the mega caps yes the perversion of the inversion I just said that anyway let me know what you think about this I'll leave a comment down below coupon expires tonight we'll be traveling and responding to emails so you can probably follow me on Instagram I'll probably post some stories there and we'll see you soon thank you so much and happy birthday Jack he turns eight today see you
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