저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2월 중순 S&P500 계절성 차트상 3월 중순 저점 가능성이 있어 폭락 우려가 제기되나, 계절성은 절대적 지표가 아님. 과거 20년 평균 계절성 차트 제시 후, 2020년 3월 폭락은 이상치로 제외 권고. 현재 강세장이며 SPY가 491달러 지지선 하향 이탈 전까지 강세 유지 관점. 이탈 시 470달러대까지 하락 가능성 언급. 올해 조정은 올 것으로 보나 타이밍은 어려움. 위험관리와 가격 행동 중심 매매 강조. 연초 대비 S&P500·나스닥100 약 5% 상승 및 자신의 수익률 자랑 후 유료 서비스 홍보.
다듬은 글
what's up everybody Welcome to the stocks Channel today we're going to talk about whether or not the stock market is going to crash and why everybody is starting to brace for one first up let's take a look at the S&P 500 spy ETF so let's crack open this chart and see what's going on in the stock market today all right all right so the first thing I want to look at today is just a simple S&P 500 index seasonality chart and you can find a lot of these all over the Internet by simply Googling S&P 500 seasonality and there are a lot of different seasonality charts but today we're just looking at one from Equity clock that is averaging the last 20 years and this is just giving us an idea of what seasonality is saying about the stock market and you can see we are currently right here at this peak in the middle of February and there are a lot of people thinking the stock market is about to start crashing down due to the seasonality into about the middle of March where we are going to reach a major stock market bottom and because it's happening so so quickly a lot of people are viewing that as a crash so there are a few things I want to talk about regarding whether or not the stock market's going to crash and I do want to address the elephant in the room because there are a lot of people that have been bracing for a crash and if you go back and you look at history these people are always looking for stock market crashes every single year and then when we finally get one like 2022 it does look like they knew what they were talking about but if you look at their track record they tell you the stock market is going to crash every every single year now there is another thing I want to talk about with seasonality and you can see if you just followed seasonality this is not the end all Beall you follow seasonality and you buy at the lows and you sell at the highs and you make money because as you can see we also had seasonality telling us that in the middle of January we were going to have a significant draw down into the beginning of February and if you look at the stock market that did not happen the stock market pretty much went straight up during that entire period with very minimal pullbacks SO trading is never as simple as you want to make it believe you don't just simply pull a seasonality chart and that tells you everywhere you need to buy and sell and you're going to be a profitable Trader now the other thing I want to address is that this period of week seasonality from the middle of February to the middle of March does include the crash of March 2020 which was a very extreme instance in stock market history that is not likely just going to repeat because seasonality has it in there so if you are taking seasonality I would view 2020 especially that crash in March as an out liar and I would personally take that out of your seasonality calculations now let's go ahead and delete the seasonality chart I've talked about how seasonality can be incorrect and it's not the end all be all and I also showed you why people are bracing for a crash in the middle of February which we are currently in so there is a real reason to be risk off here and possibly be a little concerned especially given the fact that you can get out of the stock market as of Friday's close essentially at a brand new all-time high which essentially means you can have a zero risk trade to Simply wait to see if we do start to decline and then there's no harm no foul if we start to pull back then you're in cash but what I want to caution you against is what a lot of you are likely going to do is you are going to hear the stock market's going to crash or you're going to see the weak seasonality and you're just going to short a bull Trend because of it and you're likely going to lose because the Market's in a bull Trend which means it's likely going to continue to go higher so if you're in that camp where you're getting bearish because everybody else is saying that we're going to crash and it's making you uneasy you simply need to understand that if you start to short this Market you need to get out and you need to manage your risk if we do indeed break out and start to make another brand new all-time high this is what I talked about before when I made the episode about blowoff top scenarios because in a blowoff top scenario there are a lot of people doubting the market and doubting the bull Trend and there are a lot of people that are going to call Perpetual tops where every time we make a new all-time high they are going to come out of the woodwork and tell you that is the top and they're going to make it sound like they know what they're talking about and that the Market's going to crash Crash from that high and if you believe them you are going to be very disappointed when the market just continues to go higher so first things first seasonality is not the end all Beall and the second thing I want you to pay attention to is that we are still in a very powerful bull Trend and even with the volatility on Friday which was a typical operations expiration day where we typically do get a volatile day the S&P 500 did not even close down below the 5 EMA so we are still in a very powerful bull Trend so what I teach is to follow price action in Trend and what I teach is that the price action needs to tell you the bull trend is ending you don't simply guess and you don't simply get bearish just because if seasonality is a good enough reason for you to get risk off here that's completely fine but risk off could simply mean you sit in cash it doesn't mean that you need to try to short this bull market so in the very short term I do want you to be aware of the seasonality and it is weak so you could start to get a little risk off here which means even if you're taking long trades possibly scale them down a bit and there's no reason to be in a lot of Leverage here at all-time highs and possibly near a week period in the market however if we look at this price action we really need to see spy breaking down below 491 to 490 before we start to see a weak market and if we do break down below that support without making a brand new all-time high this will look like a double top rejection and then you're going to have a very good reason based on the chart to start getting a lot more bearish because it's going to look like a double top projection on a breakdown below this neckline at 491 So Below 491 we will likely come all the way back down towards the high 470s and then if we break that we are officially out of this bull Trend and we could be going much lower so if we just simply measure that move we only need to go down a little more than 2% before price action is going to tell us to get a lot more risk off and even a lot more bearish so when you're only talking about a 2% draw down for the potential of a break of support remember these are odds and probabilities and nobody knows for sure what's going to happen so in my opinion with a bull TR Trend and and only needing about a 2% draw down to know the bull trend is ending or potentially weakening I am still bullish and I am going to remain bullish meaning I am still looking for opportunities to buy at support within a bull Trend until we see something on the chart telling us otherwise this is how I trade and this is how I remain profitable and I do think if you're going to follow somebody's analysis or somebody's opinion about trading it does help if you do understand that they are actually Traders as well and if you are on my Discord server you know that I am sitting in there most of the time all day long giving updates and technical analysis of exactly what I see on the charts and how I'm positioning to trade it and just to show you that I actually do trade and that I am a profitable Trader I can simply show you my Equity curve year-to date which is right here on the chart and you can clearly see that as I tell you we do crush the market and we do simply follow price action because all year long I've told you this is a buy the dip Market which is a bull market to buy at support and as you can can tell we are absolutely crushing the market because the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ 100 are only up about 5% year to date so we are crushing the market and we are going to continue crushing the market whether it goes up or down we could not care less because we're Traders we want to be on the right side of that move and we want to manage risk so just be very cautious going into the rest of February a lot of people do know that the seasonality is getting weaker and they may start to sell and drisk their positions which could cause the stock market to be become a lot more volatile but until that day comes where we break down below support there is really nothing telling us that this bull trend is rolling over and getting ready to go lower remember at some point the stock market will go through a correction and I do think we are going to see a very sizable correction this year but timing it and trying to guess when it's here is a lot more difficult what I'm trying to tell you to do is simply wait until the price action gives us confirmation if you wait for that confirmation you are going to be a much better Trader because while we are in this bull Trend we have been absolutely knocking trades out of the park staying bullish in a bull Trend by simply being objective and unbiased and trading in the direction of this trend if you've been fighting against this trend and you've been shorting it because you think we're overvalued or going too high and can't go higher then there is no way you are crushing this Market because this Market has been continuing to go higher even though a lot of people have said that it can't so I'm telling you right now and I've said it many times do not trust other people's opinions on what they think the market is is going to do learn how to read price action and trade with risk management and you are going to be a much better Trader and you are not going to need to rely on these other people's opinions so for that reason I am going to remain bullish and spy while price action is above $491 and I do think there's a good chance we are going to continue to make new all-time highs until we lose that support and if you're worried about losing that support as I said before just trade a little bit smaller scale your positions down just a little bit more keep a little more cash and drive High powder on the sidelines in case it starts to rain and you are going to do just fine in this market what is not going to work well is simply shorting the market while it's still bullish simply because you're getting nervous or getting uneasy or that noise is starting to affect you that you continue to hear the market is about to crash remember that noise is there every year I promise you that noise is there every year this is not a new thing where these Bears continue to tell you the Market's going to crash and then they start to Overlay 2008 and 1929 over the current price action and it always looks like we're currently on the edge of the cliff ready to fall off it and drop 50% I promise you those are not new things I see them every single year even in the strongest bull market years that we've had so block out that noise come learn how to trade price action and if you want to come learn from me the best way to do that is by joining my Discord server where I sit there all day long and I send charts and I talk about how to set up trades and I'll give you some trade ideas along the way as well so in my opinion it's simply as riding this bull while we have the bull Trend and we're Above This critical Zone if we break down below it we're going to get a lot more bearish and a lot more risk off and I'm going to start viewing the market as it's possibly going through a correction to the downside but until the price action allows for that we're going to continue riding this bull if you want to come crush the market with us consider joining Bank trade alerts where I will send you all of your buy and sell alerts directly OFA email and text message and we are absolutely crushing this market and it's very simple to follow because we only trade two ETFs which is the tle Q and the SQ you you can find out how to join Bank trade alerts by clicking on the link in the description of this video if you want access to all of my intraday updates and technical analysis then you need to be in the stock Channel Discord server and you can find out how to join that below as well so thank you for watching everybody I hope you're crushing this market and as always I will see you in the next episode
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