저자: JimCramer · 외국인
요약 보기
AI·반도체 랠리 지속 관점. 어플라이드머티리얼즈 등 '희소성' 종목은 목표가 상향이 이어져 조정 뒤 추가 상승 여력이 있다고 봄. Fed의 금리인하 기대 후퇴 속 단기 변동성 우려는 있으나 매수 기회로 해석. 시장은 AI 투자 수익성 의문으로 변동성이 커졌지만 빅테크의 공격적 투자 지속과 메모리 수요는 펀더멘털이 견조하다고 봄. 소프트웨어로의 순환매는 AI 내러티브 전면 수정이 아닌 다양성의 일부로 평가.
다듬은 글
holding position, Applied Materials, rose 131%. We know from the wonderful Carrie Diggerson, CEO of Applied Materials, that her company has been able to secure long-term contracts for the first time, which will ensure future revenue growth. Finally, there's data center computer and component supplier Dell, up 232%.
Marvell Tech, up 241%. Arm Holdings, plus 283%. Oh my god, analysts play catch-up every day : oh, I'm raising the price, raising the price. Yes, all of these stocks have an endless parade of rising price targets. Almost every time it pushes them higher. I mention all these " scarcity" assets because they have passionate supporters.
They are like winning teams, and the stock rarely falls on days when price targets are raised , including today. It doesn't matter that the stock has already risen significantly. Maybe they will fall tomorrow because of Apple's statement. I don't know. You see, at one point in my career, I would have said that buying these scarce stocks after such a strong rally was madness.
You should just admit that you missed them and move on. and a period. Unless you want to beat yourself up for a missed opportunity, which I used to do quite often. But I am now convinced that this is the wrong approach to some of these stocks. As I told CNBC Investing Club members at my noon meeting today, there is an endless debate going on in this market around passion versus rigor.
You see, being strict would mean you missed them, so move on. Passion says they can grow even bigger, and you haven't missed anything. There is significant growth potential left because things are going too well. This is passion. So the goal should be to find the next big asset that could grow and try to catch it on the decline before a new round of growth.
Today you have been given several opportunities. You can be sure that she started off strongly, making it clear that the Fed is no longer set on cutting rates. Many Fed officials want to raise rates because, in their view, the economy is overheated. A tightening of policies may come soon. And this news, which appeared at 2:00 PM, instantly caused the market to fall.
No, no, no. This is exactly the moment when it is worth acting. Markets work, right? They tend to go a little too far in both directions. We will see whether the situation stabilizes and whether macroeconomic volatility decreases in August. You mentioned that Nasdaq is usually a leader, so I would like to talk about leaders in Nasdaq, because you also mentioned the pendulum concept that we are prone to biases.
Now the leaders are becoming outsiders, and in many ways we see AI and semiconductor companies under constant pressure, which creates tension in the market. Not today though. We see a rotation towards software companies, which at the beginning of the year received nicknames like " SAS-acurred" and "SAS-pocalypse." How do you view this, analyzing the data and trends: is this a healthy rotation, or a complete revision of the AI narrative, where investors fundamentally question the trend?
I think this continues to be a trend that has been defining markets for several years now. I would call the tipping point late 2022, when AI and the broader commerce around AI became a visible phenomenon. We've seen similar periods before, and today you're seeing the flip side, but I have a visualization of the performance of the NDX components over the past month that I think clearly demonstrates the narrow and broader focus.
It would be great if we could show that. Good. So, in short: you see variance. Over the last month, you've seen those companies that you mentioned, those SAS companies that were really lagging significantly at the beginning of the year, become the ones that beat expectations, and that's been pretty telling over the last month, and on the downside, you see companies like SanDisk, Micron, and Arm, I think you and Jenny were just talking about, that used to show significant growth.
This continues to be a trend. I don't expect this to change significantly, and I think it's a great example of how the tech sector is not monolithic. There are many shades under that broader umbrella, and I think this is an example of that, and, you know, today shows how things can turn around and the mood can change—time will tell if that continues.
Let's talk about options for a second, because you emphasized in today's notes that markets fall faster than they rise, so watching the options action in the markets, you obviously evaluate downside protection differently. What are options traders telling you right now that stock investors may not be noticing ?
Good question. You know I like to look at things through the lens of options, and that's not always the case for many long-term passive investors; but the options market, particularly index options, is so information rich, and the same goes for individual stocks, right? Are you thinking about Apple or Amazon's earnings tonight?
So what is the options market telling me, or what was it telling me last night as I thought about our conversation? The skew in the NDX last night, when looking at one-month options, which is pretty standard, looked very similar to what the market was pricing in at the end of March of this year when the markets bottomed.
It wasn't quite the same. The upside potential is estimated to be slightly higher, and the put-option skew was slightly more pronounced earlier this year. Oh, that's great. Just in time. So, what this tells me is that there is significant demand for downside protection , which is understandable. How this changes today and over the next week as earnings reports come in and the market digests them, I think it will be very interesting.
The other point I would make is that we have six straight days of declines for the NDX, and that... Wall Street continues to ask one question. Is n't AI already too expensive? Every major AI company just reported earnings, and something strange happened. The companies looked strong while many of their stocks were struggling.
This usually doesn't happen. Typically, great earnings reports send stocks soaring, but this time investors hesitated. Why? Because Wall Street no longer asks if AI is evolving. She questions whether the AI industry can generate enough revenue to justify trillions of dollars in investment. And this is a much more complicated question.
Think about what is happening today. Cloud giants plan to spend well over a trillion dollars on AI infrastructure in the coming years. New data centers are popping up everywhere. Demand for electricity is exploding, and memory prices continue to rise. Chip orders remain huge, and yet many investors are suddenly nervous.
Not because the demand for AI has disappeared, but because financing this revolution is becoming increasingly expensive. Higher interest rates, more debt obligations and greater demand from investors. The cost of building the future is rising. This is where the discussion begins . One side believes that this is simply the next stage of the AI revolution.
The largest technology companies are generating record profits, and the cloud business continues to accelerate. AI services are starting to generate significant revenue. If profitability continues to increase, increasing investment makes perfect sense. The other side sees something different. They believe that expectations have become too optimistic.
Every company wants to build AI infrastructure. Every company wants to have access to GPUs and win in the next generation of computers. Ultimately, someone has to earn enough to justify all these expenses. Until investors see these returns, questions will remain. There is another factor that people overlook - the market itself.
At the beginning of the year, AI became the only direction everyone wanted to invest in. Hedge funds increased leverage, and impulsive investors chased every breakthrough. Retail investors invested heavily in shares of semiconductor companies. When everyone is rushing into one deal, even a small disappointment causes huge fluctuations.
That's exactly what happened. Forced selling replaced enthusiasm, not because business had weakened, but because positioning had become excessive. Take a look at Micron. Stocks experienced dizzying fluctuations. But despite the volatility, management continues to talk about strong pricing and stable long-term customer commitments.
Demand for memory continues to outstrip supply, and factories still can't produce enough advanced products. These fundamental indicators have not disappeared. Only investor sentiment has changed. The same pattern is observed throughout the AI ecosystem. Amazon has increased investments, and Microsoft continues to expand capacity.
Alphabet remains aggressive, while Meta refuses to cut costs. These companies have access to the best domestic demand data in the world. If they believed that interest in AI was fading, their investment plans would look different. Instead, they continue to build faster than ever.
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