저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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AI 반도체 수요 강세로 마이크론·씨게이트·웨스턴디지털·샌디스크 등 메모리/스토리지 주가가 크게 올랐고 가격 목표 상향이 이어진다고 설명. 다만 금리 인상 우려와 VIX 상승 속에 나스닥이 조정받았으나, 빅테크의 AI 투자 확대를 근거로 변동성은 일시적 기술적 조정이라는 입장. 시장 되돌림은 펀더멘털 악화가 아니라 포지션 축소의 결과라고 봄.
다듬은 글
averaging. So when I tell you that the Dow is down 57 points, the S&P is down 1.2%, the NASDAQ is down 1.35%, Hall of Fame, mainly because of the "hawkish" statements made by the new Fed chairman at today's press conference. Understand that we are missing something important. Oh, by the way, I could talk all day about whether we will get a rate hike from the Fed or stay put.
Uh, but you know what I would do better? I would like to try to help you make some money. I think this is more significant. Anyway, I'm going to talk to you about stocks that are working even today, which are targets that are not hyperscalers, certainly not Microsoft. It's semiconductors and their friends who are benefiting from the staggering shortage.
Stocks like Micron, which reports on the 24th, Seagate, Western Digital, SanDisk. These companies produce semiconductors for memory and storage that are less complex than anything coming out of Nvidia. But these companies can't make them fast enough. They continue to raise prices one after another. and they make many of the devices we use more expensive.
Just tonight, Apple CEO Tim Cook said that Apple will have to raise prices because of these memory chips. So their stock prices continue to rise . And the rest of us, the pain chamber, almost every day an analyst who hasn't kept up with these stocks raises price targets for each of them. Then the next analyst should raise the price targets.
Then the stock exceeds previous expectations . And then another one comes along, raises and raises , and raises, and raises. That's how these stocks have risen so much . It's a giant game of "jumping over the back." The price target increases are colossal. Even if product prices are only increasing gradually.
Look, I understand. That's how Micron rose 266% this year. Seagate jumped 287%. Western Digital grew by 313%. SanDisk soared 725%. These are phenomenal gains based on a DRAM shortage. Exactly what Apple is talking about. the type of memory chips that our data centers desperately need. Then there is another level.
We have a shortage of commodity semiconductors because we also have a shortage that is needed to make those commodity semiconductors. So, KLA increased by 96%. Lam Research rose 19%. Kevin, it's great to have you back in the studio with me. You mentioned that when you sat down, I was smiling. Is it because we have a “green” day on the scoreboard?
Yes, of course, it wouldn't hurt. It's nice to see the NASDAQ show such a nice 2% gain thanks to the recovery of Microsoft and some microchip companies, but we witnessed one of the sharpest pullbacks in recent weeks. We have moved away from record highs, it seems, since our last conversation, and have had a very different picture since then.
So, what has changed in the overall nature of the market and what is causing the increase in volatility? It seems like we closed above 20 points on the VIX index yesterday. You are right about everything. Perhaps we can refresh the basic understanding of the situation in this interview. But I think your argument can be applied quite broadly.
So this year we've seen volatility in both directions, and we've said before that volatility is a directionless indicator. It is usually perceived incorrectly. This is the type of volatility that most investors associate with it . But I looked at the monthly returns and ranges of the NASDAQ 100. If we could open that up, I think it would explain a lot.
In short , we have seen larger than average fluctuations in three of the last four months. If we look at the bottom right of this chart, we see that April was the best month for the NDX since the post- Covid recovery, with a gain of almost 11%. June was relatively quiet, and as of yesterday, the NDX had lost 11% since the beginning of the month.
Now, that value will be smaller, but the point is that we have observed—or perhaps it should be noted—interesting turning points at the end of months. So, March 30 was a turning point; a grand April that continued into May. Time will tell if we see more of this kind of positive volatility in August while the market digests this, but I would argue that it is relatively normal.
Volatility tends to cluster, it moves and can help and hurt in equal measure. So, looking at these above-average swings and some volatility at the end of the month— since today is July 30th—do you view this, in terms of the reasons, as simply the market digesting the higher interest rate environment that we seem to be in?
I think yesterday we actually took the idea of lowering rates off the agenda, an increase is still quite possible, and profits are higher. Does this seem, given the trends and data that you're seeing, fundamentally different compared to the volatility that we saw at the beginning of the year? I like that wording and I will focus on your point about rates.
I believe that when it comes to stock markets, the NASDAQ 100 tends to be the leader. You see it both ways. So over long time frames, the NDX tends to outperform the S& P in growth. It covers 145% of growth and about 125% of decline. Such turning points over time, like this year, have in many situations been related to what's happening in the bond market.
And there's a reason why people call the fixed income market " smart money." I think these definitions are changing because the influence of retail investors and how successfully they have operated over the past few years is changing. But I hope to get your opinion on whether this time is different ?
No. The growth earlier this year was a story about profits. It was a kind of normalization and a question of when these costs would be monetized, and that's how markets work. The voice just sent a powerful signal about Nvidia, and most investors missed it. The headlines were presented too simply. Nvidia fell, AI stocks collapsed, and semiconductor companies came under pressure.
But behind these headlines, something much bigger was happening. This was not just another "red day." Wall Street was trying to answer one question that could define the next few years. Is the AI investment strategy entering its next phase, or is it starting to fall apart? Over the past month, investors have been inundated with reasons to panic.
Questions about AI funding amid rising interest rates and speculation that memory prices have peaked. Rumors of cyclical financing and explosive volatility in Korean semiconductor stocks . Every headline seemed to hint that the AI story was falling apart. However, at the same time, something strange happened.
Companies that are actually spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI have continued to increase their investments. This contradiction cannot be ignored . Let's start with the numbers. Microsoft has expanded its AI infrastructure. Amazon increased capital expenditures, and Alphabet doubled its investment in cloud technologies.
Meta continued to build out its AI capabilities despite criticism from investors. If demand were to fall, these companies would protect cash. Instead, they are writing even bigger checks, suggesting that the people closest to demand are seeing something completely different than what the daily stock charts show.
The biggest misunderstanding right now is confusing stock volatility with business deterioration. It's the same thing . The market can panic long before business slows down , and sometimes business continues to grow while stock prices move in the opposite direction. This is exactly what we have been observing lately .
Look at the semiconductor sector. This entire segment made extraordinary profits at the beginning of the year. Ultimately, every major momentum strategy has focused on the same set of stocks. When everyone rushes into one deal, the exit becomes extremely narrow as leverage is reduced, and great companies fall along with the average ones—not because profits have suddenly disappeared, but because positions need to be reduced.
This is a technical event, not necessarily a fundamental one. Another big issue centers around funding: Can the world really afford trillions of dollars for AI infrastructure? This is a valid question; Higher interest rates increase the cost of borrowing, and large projects require huge amounts of capital .
Some AI startups are still heavily dependent on external funding. These risks are real. But here's what investors should also remember. The companies leading this investment cycle are not startups . These are some of the most profitable businesses ever created. Microsoft continues to generate huge cash flow, and Amazon's cloud business is accelerating.
Alphabet remains a " cash machine," and these companies are investing because they are optimistic. They are investing because customers continue to demand more computing power than they can currently provide. This brings us to memor battlegrounds. Some investors believe the industry is approaching another boom-bust cycle.
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