저자: JimCramer/MichelleGass · 외국인
요약 보기
레비스 실적은 전반적으로 양호하며 미국 DTC 부진은 회복 중이라는 경영진 주장. 레비스 실적 요약: 매출은 소폭 부진했으나 환율 영향이며 주당순이익은 크게 상회. 관세 환급 영향 일부 포함. 연간 이익 전망 상향. 경영진 설명: 도매 6%, 국제 8% 성장, DTC는 2%에 그침. 유럽은 날씨 영향으로 부진했으나 9월 이후 회복, 미국 DTC는 마케팅 전략 수정 후 4분기 들어 플러스 전환. 연말까지 DTC 고한자리수 성장 기대. 중국: 13% 성장, 제품 전략 변경과 매장 재배치, 한류 스타 협업 효과 언급. 자회사: Beyond Yoga는 소규모지만 꾸준한 성장, 라이프스타일 카테고리 확장. Signature 브랜드 13% 성장, Blue Tab(고가) 두자리수 성장. 거시 우려: 유가 상승 시 비필수소비재 소비 위축 가능성에 대해 경영진은 소비자 회복력을 강조. Cramer 논평: 비관적 전망 제시 없이 실적은 괜찮다는 평가. AI 인프라 부채·엔비디아 칩 담보 대출 관련 우려는 자막이 손상되어 발언 내용이 불분명하며, 특정 종목 방향 예측으로 확정하기 어려움.
다듬은 글
My clothes are made of denim. This stock had a great year until two months ago when it started falling along with almost all other consumer staples. Everyone assumed that Levi's would suffer due to high gas prices , but not all clothing companies are the same. The company reported a technically mixed quarter tonight, which I thought was quite positive.
Levi's showed a slight revenue lag, but that was partly due to currency fluctuations. You can't control them. Their organic growth was more in line with expectations. On the other hand, they significantly outperformed earnings per share, but part of that was due to the return of tariffs. While Levi's raised its full-year profit forecast, the growth was a little less than some had expected, but I still think it's pretty good.
There are a lot of nuances here, so let's dig in with Michelle Gass, president and CEO of Levi Strauss & Company, to learn more. Michelle Gass, welcome back to Mad Money. Thank you, Jim. Glad to be here. So, Michelle, I saw a slightly different mix than what I'm used to. Your wholesale business, which is truly excellent, has shown great growth.
Your DTC business, growth is not that good. What do you think about these differences and what can we learn in the future? Yes, of course, Jim. As you said earlier, we have reached the upper limit of our forecasts. We predicted 4–5% organic growth, and we came in at about 5%. But the quarter turned out to be somewhat different.
Wholesale sales grew by 6%, international sales were very strong, up 8%. And I really think that demonstrates the essence of our strategy and the strength of this diversified portfolio that we're building. So, the success in wholesale and international growth offset some of the weakness we saw in DTC, which grew only 2%.
This is isolated to a few markets, important markets: Europe, the US. We'll get into the details, Jim, but I will tell you that the team has addressed these issues and we are already seeing a recovery. The US is showing positivity. Overall, global DTC returned to mid-single- digit growth in September, and we expect growth to return to high single- digits by the end of the year.
So we feel good. This is not a trend, it's just a moment in time, and as I said, we have already recovered. Okay, this is important. Do you think there was something wrong with DTC in the beginning that has since been corrected and now you're back in a strong position, if not better than we expected?
Yes, no, that's how it is. So, this was specifically about Europe, in the US, specifically the DTC direction. If we take Europe, everyone knows that it was damn hot this summer, and even though we had plenty of shorts, tank tops, and T-shirts, it still hurt business. Our wholesale business in Europe has been very strong.
So, Europe as a region has performed quite well. They grew by mid- single digits, about 5%, but in the DTC, as the temperature dropped and it got cooler, business picked up. So now, since the beginning of the quarter, the indicators have been positive. We feel great. But in the USA the situation was different.
So, you know, Jim, I would say that our campaign, our marketing campaign leading up to the start of the school year, fell short of our expectations. Of course. Yes, I'll tell you a little more about that. We thought it was a strong campaign, and we were showcasing some of our bestsellers in the loose category, because "loose fit" has become a big trend in denim.
But consumers in the US have actually moved to a low-rise, and we have those products. We just didn't talk about them loud enough as we needed to. So we changed our strategy. This is all retail. It's all about the details and the movement. And so when we saw this change, the team got to work. We have the advantage of a duty refund.
We invest, we'll talk about it later, but we reinvest a significant portion of these funds in the consumer to create demand. So we are increasing marketing to focus on the products that the consumer wants right now, which is low-cost. We have loose low rise, super low rise, straight low rise, any low rise you want, and it's happening right now.
And that's what's behind the acceleration that we're seeing, as I said , in DTC in the US, where the numbers have turned positive again since the start of Q4. Well, listen, I appreciate it, because if you weren't being upfront, I would say, I don't know what's going on. But the fact that you were open about how things were n't going so well at first, and that you're now showing such strong results, is great.
One area where everyone has terrible results, frankly , is China. And yet, I didn't see the terrible numbers from China. I saw good ones. Why are you succeeding in China while everyone else is essentially floundering? Yes, we are doing a lot of things well in China. China showed growth of 13% this quarter and has been performing well throughout the year.
First, I would say that we have a great leader, a great team, and they are getting the job done. Secondly, we changed our product strategy, and we now have a greater focus on, let's say, our global icons combined with products created specifically for the Chinese consumer. And I would say there was a little more wobble with that before.
So when we got that right, the consumer started responding. We really focus on sales in our stores, display products differently, and in some cases, move, give up old real estate and rent new premises in prestigious locations. So, like I said, the team is doing a great job. And we also had great success in China and in Asia in general—this is Rosie.
We have this phenomenal partnership with this global K-pop star. She has over 90 million followers worldwide, but in Asia she is simply incredible. She appeared in our pop-up stores. I mean, thousands of people came there. Over 3 billion views on media, and it was a huge boost for us across Asia, including China.
Of course. Now I want to ask about a unit that I probably shouldn't be doing anymore, but the results were good. This is your yoga brand, Beyond Yoga . I know it's very small, and you might say, "Well, Jim, every second spent on this is probably a mistake." But I haven't seen anyone deliver numbers that meet or exceed expectations, and you did.
Thinking of something? Yes, of course, you know , the Beyond Yoga team is making significant progress. And since we're talking about expanding into a lifestyle company, Levi's is not going to move into activewear. This is where Beyond Yoga comes in. And they delivered another strong quarter. This is a combination of strengthening our e- commerce.
We are building more stores. I don't know, Jim, if you've been to the pop-up store in New York, but it's doing really well. And what's important for their category: yes, it's yoga, but it's much more. The categories that are really winning are lifestyle: whether it's travel pants, sweaters, layering, or new sports gear called "glow zone." So, the team works very efficiently.
And you know, this is a small business for us , but it is growing steadily. You know, on Wall Street we think a lot in terms of theses and pattern recognition. We say: when gasoline prices rise, we stop buying non- essential goods. I never knew for sure what non-essential goods were , and are jeans such goods, or are they something you wear when you don't have much money?
Do you see any impact or connection between fuel prices and clothing sales? No, our consumer continues to demonstrate resilience. As I said, our problems in the US were related to direct sales (DTC), and those were our own problems. On the other hand, our wholesale business in the US was profitable this quarter.
So, you know, even when it gets harder, you just have to work harder because people are still going to spend money. You just have to be much more relevant and innovative. And that's exactly what our teams do. They find ways to really connect with the consumer . You know, in our world we also do segmentation seriously.
We have a core line—Red Tab , classic Levi's, that also offers great value. I mean, quality and durability matter . These things are even more important in times like now. But we have our Signature brand from Levi Strauss. It grew by 13%. This is big business for us. And many consumers can buy it at Walmart.
And they show very good results. Additionally, in the high segment, we have Blue Tab. So now we move on to the $200 products. It's a small business for us today, but it's growing at double-digit rates. So it all comes down to meeting the consumer where they want to be, whether it's, as I said , Blue Tab, or Signature, or our core Red Tab line—we'll be there for them.
Okay, look, I'm worried about the future, and honestly, given what's already happened, I think the people who make the decisions, you know what? I, I, I'm not thrilled about that. —all faced strong sales 30% of its value continue to sign agreement can come down to one thing. se costs are base, it becomes more difficult to finance such projects.
Even with high demand, the business case may become less attractive. It is this fear that is hitting the market righ. A contract can guarantee years of profits. But the company still needs money to create the infrastructure necessary will come under pressure. And if investors believe it will be harder to borrow money in the future , stocks could fall even as businesses continue to attract customers.
That's why this sale is n't just about demand. It is also a question of cost. equation. obligations. This is ach withstand them. A company that needs to borrow heavily to finance its growth has a much bigger problem. But there is another side to this story. Loans secured by Nvidia chips debt tied to AI infrastructure today.
an become funds by securing the equipment they already own. But there is one piece of hardware . Chips can be used under various perform. main question is not simply whether the Nvidia chip has value. What matters is how much value it will retain and how easily that value can be recovered. And are creditors willing to trust such collateral?
If the could be under more demand for the AI boom running out, because the companies that trigger the sell-off are not in the same financial position. inancial profiles. Their shares may still fall during a general ha development themselves from those that depend on constant access to external capital.
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