저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 달러가 장기적으로 약하지 않으며 감세·규제완화·관세 인하 시 미국 우위로 달러가 강세될 수 있다고 주장. 현 경기는 2022년 이후 롤링 리세션 상태이나 2분기 마이너스 후 하반기 강세 회복 가능성을 언급. 비트코인은 연준의 규제 완화로 제도권 수용이 확대되고 있다고 평가. 혁신 기업은 침체 말기에 실적 회복이 빠르다고 주장.
다듬은 글
It is still up there. Sure. Uh it is still up there. You know, we were on a trade weighted uh basis. We were in the 70s uh in uh 10 years ago or or or so forth. And so now we're we're at 100 and we've come down from 110 plus. Uh so in the context of history, it is not that weak in an absolute sense.
In the context of a few weeks, I agree with you. This has been a big move in a very short period of time. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. During times of market uncertainty, Kathy Wood emphasizes that both Bitcoin and gold are powerful tools for protecting wealth. However, she also warns that risks continue to exist.
Bitcoin recently reached its highest level in nearly two months, surpassing $95,000, which caused a wave of excitement to spread throughout the cryptocurrency market. Many analysts, however, continue to exercise caution. Despite the fact that the rally appears to be strong, experts have pointed out that it may not be sustainable if there is not a significant catalyst that drives it higher.
It has been suggested by traders such as Dawn Crypto Trades that maintaining key support levels could result in new highs. However, other traders such as Skew have expressed concern that the current strength may be artificially supported by passive buyers rather than being the result of organic demand.
The warning signs are also raised by Keith Allen of Material Indicators, who points out that declining trading volumes and unstable price action may be indicators of a rally that is beginning to weaken. There is a fierce battle going on between buyers and sellers at the moment. And although Bitcoin is maintaining its stability, the path to $100,000 still appears to be filled with uncertainty and will most likely require more momentum in order to be realized.
Absolutely. It is uh just like gold. And they did part company because again, Bitcoin does have a little bit more of a riskoff I mean a riskon element to it as well. So there was a little bit of payback for last year's performance. Um but uh yes, it is a hedge. It is a technology. It is a new asset class.
It is a big idea. And so yes, now I am going to uh differ with what I believe is a consensus view evolving and that is that the um that the dollar is is going to go down if we're right and deregulation tax cuts uh occur here in the United States as well as broaderbased tax cuts in the form of tariffs coming down everywhere um favoring the US because if If you'll notice there has been unfair treatment particularly with uh non-tariff trade barriers then the rate of return on invested capital in the United States should increase relative to that abroad and that should be dollar positive.
Um this is what happened during the Reagan revolution. And in fact the dollar uh was so strong that uh we had to have the Plaza and Louva Accords where all of the Treasury ministers around the world including the United States said okay we've got to sell some dollars to relieve some of these liquidity pressures.
So I know that the dollar has been quite weak over the last few weeks uh since so-called liberation day especially uh but if you look at it in the context of the very long term it is still up there. Sure. Uh it is still up there. you know, we were on a trade weighted uh basis, we were in the 70s uh in uh 10 years ago or or or so forth.
And so now we're we're at 100 and we've come down from 110 plus. Uh so in the context of history, it is not that weak in an absolute sense. In the context of a few weeks, I agree with you. This has been a big move in a very short period of time. President Trump has a very strange way of negotiating and that's and that's by causing complete chaos uh fearlessly causing complete chaos and uh and then and then having uh having an agreement evolve.
I think what he would love to do, we're hearing this from some members of the administration, you just never know with President Trump. Uh, I think that instead of one by one just pulling together our largest trading partners and I don't know if they'd call it a Mara Lago accord but getting tariffs around the world down and and just as important getting non-tariff trade barriers down.
Now think about uh what a head fake that will be. the market has responded as though we are going to see a major tax hike in the form of tariffs. What if the goal is actually tariff declines uh on balance and non-tariff trade barriers coming down? That would be a huge tax cut. And if we get another set of tax cuts uh as well as deregulation and we're seeing some mindbogling deregulation already in healthcare that no one's really talking about.
Uh and uh so you've got deregulation, tax cuts, and lower interest rates which we also think are going to happen. Uh this head fake uh could turn around pretty quickly. uh we do need to get some agreements here though and we need to get a little more certainty than is in the market right now. There you go.
So I think this question started during co that's where we understood our vulnerabilities and sure this trade discussion has has intensified that talk but the real problem is supply chains had become too much just in time. and had moved so far away from our shores that we really were at a big disadvantage.
Uh and so I think from that, you know, so that was in the last administration that this these efforts began and now they're intensifying. So the question is will uh will this create jobs? Um, we think that what is going to happen in the United States today is what China enjoyed in the last 25 years as it as it entered the World Trade Organization.
In the early days of the World Trade Organization, China didn't have landlines throughout the country and yet wireless was evolved to a point that they were able to leapfrog the traditional world and go directly to wireless. Same thing with banks. They didn't have a branch banking system throughout the country the way the developed world did.
They skipped that and went directly to mobile well digital wallets, bank branches in our pockets. So again, that put them at a competitive advantage from a a a cost point of view. In light of the fact that the Federal Reserve of the United States has made it possible for traditional banks to directly handle Bitcoin services in accordance with stringent compliance regulations, Michael Sailor, executive chairman of Micro Strategy and a well-known advocate for Bitcoin, is celebrating a significant development.
Sailor referred to this matter as a huge leap forward for the future of Bitcoin in a post that was published on X which was formerly known as Twitter. He also stated that the walls are coming down between traditional finance and cryptocurrency. It is now possible for banks to provide custody services for Bitcoin settlement services and even partner with cryptocurrency custodians, which makes Bitcoin significantly more accessible to the general public due to the fact that banks that were previously hesitant now have a clear green light to dive into Bitcoin related services such as cryptobacked loans and Bitcoin savings accounts.
This regulatory clarity has the potential to unleash a wave of institutional interest and adoption. This moment is a massive validation of Bitcoin's growing role in the global financial system when viewed from Sailor's perspective and from the perspective of other Bitcoin believers. So, we've been saying for quite some time that we've been in a rolling recession since the Fed raised rates in 22.
If you look at consumer sentiment, especially lower and middle income, consumer sentiment dropped back down to where it was in 0809 for those two cohorts of consumers and h that it has not improved since then. Uh what has happened very recently is high-end consumers uh their sentiment has dropped down to where the low and middle income consumer sentiment has been.
So that rolling recession has been in place. Consumers have not been in a good place for a while. small businesses. If you look at that sentiment index, that sentiment index has if you as measured by the national federation of indep independent business also dropped in 2022 to where it was in 0809 and has not recovered with the exception of right after the election there was a burst of hope and now that's relapsing.
If you look at manufacturing, the purchasing managers index, it turned down uh went below 50 in late 22 and has stayed there the entire time. So, we've been in a recession. Housing was the first to capitulate. If you look at existing home sales, I think they're still down 35% from the peak. Uh and now capital spending is turning down.
the two sectors that gave us positive GDP over these last four years high-end consumer and government and both of those now are succumbing. So we think the fir if you look at the Atlanta Fed's G GDP now I believe it sees for the first quarter uh real GDP down 2 and a.5%. And we think that there's a bit of paralysis in in consumer and business decisionmaking now in the second quarter around tariffs, regulations, tax cuts, what's going to happen, interest rates.
Uh and so we think the second quarter will be negative as well. So that's a recession, but we don't think it's the beginning of one. We think it's the end of one. One that has been in place really, if you look underneath the GDP accounts uh for the last three years and that we're going to end up if tariffs are not as bad as we think, fair trade is more the goal.
Let's just say fairer trade as you say, Sonu. Uh and if tax rates come down, interest rates come down, deregulation, we could have in the second half of this year a surprisingly strong economy entering into next year just in time, wouldn't you know, for the midterm elections, which of course would be the goal of this administration.
Well, we often say, and this is the answer to the last part of your question, Ryan, uh, and specifically to your question, Sonu, we always say that innovation gains traction during tough times. When people, whether businesses or consumers are afraid or concerned, uh, they are willing to change the way they do things, which which helps our kinds of strategies.
Now, does does it help right in the middle of a market correction? Often, yes. But we don't see it until we're coming out of cor the correction and our stocks become the new leadership. So, it was very interesting uh to to yesterday which um and I'm not sure if this is live or if you're airing Monday.
So, we're recording Tuesday. People will hear this on Wednesday. It's a good Okay. So on Monday it was very interesting in a down market to see our uh portfolios outperforming uh and that is usually what happens as we move towards the end of a correction. Why? because uh as um analysts and investors are talking to their companies uh our kinds of companies will be saying things like yes it seems like uh uh we're seeing better traction now for our our technologies especially if they're faster payback and of course anything AI these days is very fast in terms of a payback so um I never worry during tough times that our businesses are going to go into a recession and stay down for the count.
Uh uh in fact quite the opposite. Uh we expect our the uptake of our technologies to accelerate as we as we get towards the end of a a down period in the economy and move into a recovery. The recent change in stance taken by the Federal Reserve represents not only a modification to the policy, but also a significant turning point for the widespread acceptance of Bitcoin.
As a result of the reduction of regulatory barriers and the fact that conventional financial institutions are now able to incorporate Bitcoin into their services, the gates have been opened for a wider public trust and increased institutional participation. It is possible that this will result in a significant shift in how Bitcoin is perceived.
It will no longer be regarded as merely a speculative asset, but rather as a legitimate component of normal banking and financial services. In spite of the fact that the price of Bitcoin is still struggling to find a stable footing and reach the $100,000 milestone, the more significant development is that the financial world is gradually but surely beginning to embrace cryptocurrency.
that this regulatory breakthrough could signal the beginning of a new era in which Bitcoin becomes an essential component of the global financial infrastructure is something that investors who are paying attention to it should be aware of.
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