저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
관세는 일회성 가격 충격이지 지속 인플레이션이 아니며 관세가 금리를 낮춰 재정 부담을 줄일 수 있다고 주장. 미국 정부의 6조 달러 만기 부채 재융자 부담과 재정 취약성을 지적하고, 비트코인 관련 세수 7,500억 달러가 개인소득세 폐지 논의로 이어질 수 있다는 견해를 소개. 정책 불확실성으로 주식 투자 위축 가능성도 언급. 그 외 머스크·테슬라 관련 및 미국 가계 주식 보유율 등 거시 논평 포함.
다듬은 글
It doesn't go up the next year by another 10 bucks and then another 10 bucks and another 10 bucks. That's not how tariffs work. It is how inflation works. So I think it's important to to to just make sure like are tariffs inflationary? They can be but not necessarily not correlated to the cost of the actual goods sold.
Like the reason inflation happens is oh the price of oil goes up so it's more expensive to run the factory. So then the goods become nothing changed to make your shoe. Nothing. It's just that when it landed in the port of LA, there was used to be a piece of paper that you would stamp that said 0%. Now the thing is stamped and it says 10%.
The actual cost of making this thing has not gone up. Hey guys, welcome to Everyday Finance. The Bitcoin market has been experiencing turmoil for several months, but a new figure that could finally change the entire landscape is $750 billion in tax revenue from the United States. The seasoned venture capitalist and chief executive officer of social capital, Chamath Palihapitia, has recently provided this piece of information.
Over the course of several years, policymakers and Wall Street had their sights set on a significantly lower target, which was approximately $250 billion annually from Bitcoin and taxes related to cryptocurrencies. However, this smaller target was not sufficient to drive meaningful reform and the uncertainty that resulted from it kept cryptocurrency markets unstable.
The current argument put forth by Palihapatia is that the actual tipping point is $750 billion. Once the tax revenue related to Bitcoin reaches that level, it has the potential to fundamentally change how the government of the United States views taxation. It could even open the door to radical ideas such as eliminating income taxes for millions of members of the American population.
The achievement of that threshold would bring much needed fiscal clarity, reduce fear among investors, and help stabilize the cryptocurrency market over the long term. This is something that is especially important for Bitcoin. According to Palihapatia, Bitcoin's chaos could be brought to an end and a new era of growth could begin if the cryptocurrency reaches the $750 billion mark.
Stay tuned because Chamath will be providing a comprehensive update to his market outlook later on in the video and you won't want to miss it. Let's listen to Shemath. You know, this is a misnomer that, you know, Trump is, you know, for the wealthy. Um, I don't think that that's true. Um, you know, Trump is much more about MAGA, which is like workingass middle class.
He's not about the MAG7. That's what Besson said, too. You know, the stock market is a mag seven, magnificent seven problem, not a MAGA problem. What does he mean by that? What he means is like 50% of Americans have zero equity exposure. Zero. This is what we talked about when I did your and this was huge.
Yeah. And so, you know, and 44% of it own like 12%. So for the most part, yeah, the American individual investor is not necessarily super exposed to equities. And so the thing that Biden did though is he had an incredibly aggressive program of keeping the stock market afloat. How do you do that? Okay, so like if you guys and I wanted to manipulate the stock market at the president of the United States, what could we do?
They they were high. But what what Janet Yellen did was as the interest rates came due in that period, they massively just um refinance the debt. And this is getting a little technical, but um in very short periods of time. So when you when you go and refinance yourself, right? Like if you go and refinance your home, you know, you could do a 10-year mortgage, you could do a 30-year mortgage.
She did a 30-day to one-year mortgage. Okay. Why would you do that if it was cheaper, right? And you basically had more flexibility to just keep money in the system. If you had, you know, all these $2 billion loans going out to all of your friends who would just like spend in all kinds of crazy ways.
Everything looks like it's working. GDP looks like it's working. The stock market goes up because the earnings of these companies looks like it's working. And what's incredible is that problem is now coming home to roost now. So Bessant has to refinance $6 trillion in the next 9 months. Okay. So this is like a not a small number, right?
So all this debt that basically Yelen and Biden just kind of put on the front end, it's called the front end of the curve, like these one-year maturities or whatever, they got to figure out how to push it out 10 years, 12 years, as far as possible. And so that's going to be a very complicated task. And so they benefit from the lower interest rate.
And to your point, what tariffs did was it shocked the stock market. And when that happened, it told the bond market, "Hey man, uh there's a lot of volatility and uncertainty here." It's like, let's go to the sidelines for a little bit and just chill and observe what happens. When that happens, the interest rates go down.
And that allows us, Americans, all of us collectively, we will save hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars because of what has happened in the last 5 days. It is a big problem for people that are about to retire. It's a big problem for people that have a large percentage of their net worth there.
It's also a big problem for the companies themselves because um if shareholders have a bunch of uncertainty, they may not give them more money. These companies may not be able to invest as aggressively in the future. So, it's not like it's not without pain. I I want to be clear like you're right. Like there's no free lunch anymore.
You know what I mean? Like this is like big boy pants time. So, we all put on our big boy pants and the reality is there is going to be these trade-offs. The question is how can you judge the trade-offs and make a very difficult set of decisions for the greater good and I think that's honestly where we're at.
So, yeah, there will be pain for some of these companies. Is it right? I'm not going to call that ball and strike. It's unfortunate and the reason we're here is not necessarily anybody's fault that's in this room. So I I So this is also another misnomer. Okay, and I think this is important. What is inflation?
Okay, inflation means if you said inflation is I'll pick a number 3%. What does that mean? That means that if you and I bought those Jordans and they were 100 bucks next year, let's just use that for the purposes of this math or 103, right? They go up by 3%. Um, actually, let's use 10% because I'm bad at 3% math here.
So, it's a 100 bucks, it goes to 110. Okay? The next year, it goes up by another 10% if inflation stays where it is. Right? Now, you add an $11. Right? So now the shoes are 121. So in two years the price has gone from 100 to 121 for those Jordans, right? That's inflation. The next year it'll go up by another 10%.
The next year it'll go up by 10. That's what inflation is. This is a price shock and that's different. What do I mean? So if that Jordan has a 10% tariff on it, it goes from 100 to 110 one time. And if inflation and if inflation is otherwise zero or close to zero, it doesn't go up the next year by another 10 bucks and then another 10 bucks and another 10 bucks.
That's not how tariffs work. It is how inflation works. So I think it's important to to to just make sure like are tariffs inflationary? They can be, but not necessarily. It's not correlated to the cost of the actual goods sold. Like the reason inflation happens is oh the price of oil goes up so it's more expensive to run the factory so then the goods become nothing changed to make your shoe nothing it's just that when it landed in the port of LA there was used to be a piece of paper that you would stamp that said 0% now the thing is stamped and it says 10%.
The actual cost of making this thing has not gone up. The US economy has become more and more dependent on borrowing since the country abandoned tariff-based revenue in 1913 and switched to an income tax and debt financed model. However, the system is currently exhibiting significant flaws. The cost of servicing America's enormous debt is skyrocketing, placing an unprecedented burden on the federal budget, especially with interest rates averaging between 5 and 6%.
The system is even more precarious because the United States depends so heavily on foreign creditors, including countries like China and multinational corporations in contrast to Japan, which owes its debt primarily to domestic investors. This year alone, a startling $6 trillion in US debt is due to mature, creating a perilous financial cliff.
Some see the Biden administration's attempts to control the situation with temporary solutions as a ticking time bomb that has only postponed an inevitable reckoning. A striking contrast between the two approaches to fiscal strategy is highlighted by the surprising assistance that Donald Trump's aggressive use of tariffs during his presidency provided in lowering interest rates and saving the government billions.
A deeper societal divide is also revealed by this. Although Wall Street prospers, roughly half of American households do not own any stocks, thereby excluding many from the wealth created by the financial system. Tariffs provide a one-time adjustment, even though they might result in a brief price increase, while inflation, once embedded, gradually reduces purchasing power.
Shamath Palihapatia claims that the United States could drastically alter its fiscal outlook and possibly do away with federal income taxes for households, making less than $150,000 if it can raise an additional $750 billion in revenue, most likely from taxes related to cryptocurrency. Unlocking this revenue, as Shamath explains, could drastically rebalance the system.
His more thorough analysis provides a more comprehensive picture of the issues involved. Watch the video ahead. I think al the longer term we need growth in America. How do you really chip away at this problem? You need to make more money. So I think saving money is good, but you need to make more money.
How do you make more money in America? We need to have more people working and getting paid more money. And the way to do that is we need the kinds of industries that create enough value where you're willing to pay these folks more money. So like a like you know if you could go to a trade school and work for a utility and make you know 80 90 100 whatever 110k a year and again this goes back to the domestic policy that they have to get right and be able to buy a house and send your kid to a school where they're not going to get you know up in the head.
They can get like a good decent education. I think like that's how that's how you generate way more value in the United States so that you can really start to chip away at it. Now, the other way that we will chip away at this is is what Elon is doing with Doge because that is just rampant money going out the door.
That is our American hard-earned tax dollars that were taken from our pockets to siphon it into all kinds of places that you didn't know were going there. And what they're doing is just shining a light on it and saying, "Is this what we really want? Do we want 50 billion here and 10 billion there?" And it all adds up, you know, billion here, billion there.
Turns out a little suspect if like he's chipping away at that stuff, but then he's still getting government grants for Tesla and SpaceX and all this stuff. Bro, can I can I just set the record? Okay, he's a friend of mine, so whatever. I'm biased. But let me just set the record straight. He got a $500 million uh support for Tesla during Obama.
He paid that back early. He paid it with interest and he paid it with an early prepayment penalty. Okay? So, I just want you to know that that is the facts. Yes, he got $500 million, but the other fact is this is the only person I've ever heard of in my life who's actually gotten some form of subsidy from the government, paid it back on time, actually ahead of schedule with interest with a prepayment penalty.
So, whatever you think of the guy, I just want you guys to know that that is the actual facts of what happened in the early 2010s. And what did it do? It revolutionized our even awareness of all this stuff. Meaning if Elon had not created these electric cars and all of that technology, we would have we would be even further behind today.
Like you got you got to see like you got to appreciate what this guy does. You can go to Gigafactory. I remember we had the opening party of the Gigafactory and it's like outside of Reno somewhere or whatever like I don't know it was in Nevada. We drove there. I have this video of me driving thing. It's like 50, 60, 70 seconds, man, of just like or maybe even longer.
The factory literally takes raw material, like that comes in on like train conveyor belts and out pops a Model Y on the other end of it. You're like, how how did somebody So, and in a moment where the whole world was going berserk and Obama felt like, which, you know, I gave him a real solid for this, Obama did the right thing, but then Elon did way more to, you know, just to pay it back to to to settle it with the government and the people to make it right.
And then all this technology that he's created, I cannot tell you guys, we would be so behind. Fears of inflation are growing according to a new consumer survey published Monday as analysts warn that President Donald Trump's tariffs may cause prices to rise even further. According to the most recent monthly survey of consumer expectations from the New York Federal Reserve, Americans now expect inflation to reach 3.6% 6% over the course of the next year, which is one of the highest levels seen since April 2020.
A further indication of growing economic anxiety, is the fact that 44% of respondents think unemployment will increase in the coming year. The dramatic increase in perceived job insecurity among households with annual incomes under $50,000 is especially noteworthy. Over the weekend, Bitcoin briefly surged after it was revealed that two important industries, smartphones and semiconductor chips, would be exempt from Trump's reciprocal tariffs.
But after Trump made it clear that tariffs on other types of electronics would still proceed, the rally lost steam. Financial markets continue to price in a higher likelihood of future interest rate cuts than they did prior to the announcement despite the fact that Trump's 90-day tariff delay momentarily ellayed some market concerns.
Even if short-term market volatility continues, Carlos Guzman of GSR noted that central banks may respond with more aggressive stimulus measures if global economic conditions worsen further. This development could eventually favor Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the long run. With monetary policy, inflation, and employment risks all interacting, the overall state of the economy is still extremely uncertain.
This could lead to increased volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Thanks for watching.
Comments 0