저자: 미상 · 외국인
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찰리 멍거 인용을 중심으로 인플레이션의 원인(통화 증발, 2020년 이후 유동성 확대)을 설명하고, 인플레이션 장기화 가능성을 경고한다. 이에 대응하기 위해 ①소수 집중 포트폴리오로 평균 이상 수익 추구(예: 실질수익 10% vs 6%), ②자산경량(asset light) 사업 선호, ③소비 최소화(생활비 절약)를 제시한다. 개별 자산의 구체적 가격 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
what's the best advice you have for individual investors to optimally deal with the negative impact of inflation other than owning quality equities well according to Charlie Monker if you aren't confused by what's going on you're not paying attention inflation has been at its highest levels in Generations in recent years the impacts of which have been devastating and it's now even estimated that a staggering 61% of Americans are experiencing severe financial hardship due to the high inflation however there is hope out there that the high levels of inflation seen in recent years was just a temporary thing the belief is that relatively shortly inflation will return to very low levels legendary investor Charlie Munger disagreed before his passing Munger was ringing alarm Bells about the future of inflation and the economy in this video we're going to cover why Charlie Munger believed inflation is here to stay and argu most importantly how you can protect your money from the devastating impacts of high inflation but first listen to Charlie explain how we got into this mess in the first place anything that rises to your radar screen now that may be under the radar for other people well nobody knows how much of this money printing we can do and of course we have politicians who like and there are both parties who like to believe that it doesn't matter how much you do we can ignore the whole subject and just print money as convenient well that's the way the Roman Empire behaved and it was ruined that's the way the wart Republic was ruined it's there is a point where it's dangerous and of course my attitude when something is big and dangerous is to stay a long way away from it other people people want to come as close as possible without going in that's too tricky for me I don't like it over the past couple of years inflation has been at levels not seen in decades in June 2022 inflation hit its peak at 99.1% you have to go back roughly 40 years to the early 1980s to find a period of time in which inflation was this high as Charlie mentioned in the clip a big cause of the Sky High inflation is money printing take a look at this chart of the money supply in the United States dating back to 1960 money supply is exactly what it sounds like it is a measure of all the readily available money floating around in the economy as we can see in the chart here the money supply in the US was growing at an ever increasing rate however things really started to get crazy in 2020 in order to prevent a widespread Financial collapse the US Federal Reserve took truly unprecedented actions this combined with drastic step by the government to support the economy led to trillions of new dollars getting printed in previous interviews Charlie Munger compared this massive amount of money printing to an individual using illicit substances at first it feels absolutely amazing but over time there are very severe consequences when it comes to the economy one of those severe consequences is inflation to quote the famous economist Milton fredman inflation happens when there is too much money chasing too few Goods while that may sound like a complicated concept trust me it's actually quite simple to demonstrate inflation in action we're going to use this supply and demand graph here this line represents demand for a particular good or service so in this example imagine we're talking about a house for sale in the town in which you live so in our case the demand line here represents the number of people looking to purchase this house importantly and you'll see why this matters in just a second the demand line also represents how much those buyers are willing and able to spend to make the purchase here we have the supply line This supply line represents the number of houses available in the area to be purchased the point at which the demand line and the supply line cross represents the current price for that particular good or service so in this example the price of a house as we talked about earlier in 2020 and 2021 the US government and Federal Reserve took drastic steps to attempt to protect the economy these AC included sending cash directly to households boosting unemployment benefits and pausing required payments on certain types of debt at the same time that all this money was getting injected into the economy the FED cut interest rates to historically low levels these incredibly low rates made it much less expensive for people and businesses to borrow money to make purchases going back to our supply and demand graph all of these actions resulted in an increase in demand for houses not only were more potential buyers in the market these these buyers also could afford to pay more for a house because mortgage rates were so low and the economy was white hot this higher demand is represented in our demand line getting pushed to the right it wasn't just the demand side of the equation that was impacted during this time the supply of houses available on the market decreased people didn't want to move and supply chain issues made it difficult and more costly to build new houses less Supply means our supply line gets pushed to the left as you can see our two lines now cross at a higher price at a very simplistic level this is how inflation works there are too many dollars chasing too few goods or put another way demand exceeds Supply if what Munger said about higher inflation being here to stay is true what can we do to protect ourselves financially from the potentially devastating impacts of inflation fortunately we can look to Charlie's legendary career for insights over the last handful of years I've spent hundreds of hours studying the lives of Munger and and other great investors and I have compiled all of that research into the three biggest things we can learn from Munger on how to get rich during inflation all I ask for in exchange is for you to hit that subscribe button because it's my goal to make you a better investor by studying the world's greatest investors okay let's get into the list the mongers have Berkshire stock Costco stock Chinese stock suu uh a little bit of Daily Journal stock and a bunch of apartment houses do I think that's perfect no do I think it's okay yes I think the great lesson from the mongers is you don't need all this damn diversification that's plenty of you're lucky if You' got four good assets I think the finance professors and the that sell the idea that perfect diversification is professional investment if you're trying to do better than average you're lucky if you have four things to buy and to ask for 20 is really asking for egg and your beer it's it's very few people get can have enough brains to get 20 good Investments a big part of understanding why inflation is bad for investors is understanding the concept of what is referred to as your quote real return When investing your real return is what your investment generated for you after factoring the impacts of inflation so let's say the average investor in the stock market is able to generate an 8% return before inflation this is the socaled nominal return which is just a fancy way of saying the return before the impact of inflation whether that 8% nominal return is good or bad depends in large part on what the inflation rate is this is where the concept of real return comes into play the shorthand way of calculating real return is to take the nominal return so in this case 8% and subtract out the inflation rate for the sake of this example let's say the inflation rate is 6% subtracting out the 6% inflation rate from our nominal return of 8% leaves us with a so-called re return of only 2% much less impressive than that 8% nominal return one way to lessen the impact of inflation on your real returns is to generate higher than average returns to show you what I mean I'm going to introduce you to John for the sake of this example let's say John is able to gener at a 12% nominal return while the stock market overall returned 8% to start out let's say inflation is only 2% this means John generated a real return of 10% and the stock market overall had a real return of 6% again calculated by subtracting the inflation rate from the nominal or non-inflation adjusted return notice here how John's real return of 10% is a whopping 67% higher than the average stock market's real return of 6% very very impressive but just wait until you see how this is magnified during High inflation let's say instead of 2% inflation inflation is now 6% this takes Jon's real return down to 6% and the average stock market's real return down to 2% notice now how John's real return is not 67% higher than the overall stock market it is higher by a factor of three times as we can see here as inflation increases it becomes more and more important to generate higher than average investment returns as Charlie moner explained In that clip one of the best ways to generate above average returns is to have a concentrated portfolio of only your best investments Charlie Munger was a billionaire in his entire Investment Portfolio consisted of just a few assets stock and Berkshire hathway Costco and the Daily Journal Corporation money managed by his Protege leou and finally a portfolio of apartment buildings in Southern California conventional investing wisdom with say this is not properly Diversified but as Charlie frequently liked to say if I listen to Conventional Finance teachings I would have a heck of a lot less money the next piece of advice from Charlie Munger on how to invest during inflation is to focus on what are referred to as asset light businesses listen to Charlie describe what he means if you take a business that is a good business but not a fabulous business they tend to fall into two categories one is the business where the whole reported Profit just sits there in Surplus cash at the end of the year and you can take it out of the business and the business will do just as well without it as it would if it stayed in the business the second business is one that reports the 12% on Capital but there's never any cash it reminds me of the used construction equipment business of my old friend John Anderson and he used to say in my business every year you make a profit and there it is sitting in the yard and and there are awful lot of businesses like that where just to keep going to stay in place there's never any cash now that business doesn't enable headquarters to drag out a lot of cash and invest it elsewhere we hate that kind of a business in this context an asset is just a fancy way of saying physical objects that a business needs to operate the amount of assets needed to operate and the cost of those assets is different for each business based on its industry think of it as a spectrum on the one side you have so-called asset light businesses these are businesses that need very little if any physical objects to operate their day-to-day operations on this side of the spectrum would be something like an accounting firm with an accounting firm there aren't a lot of expensive assets that need to be purchased since there isn't anything tangible being sold or made there isn't any money that needs to be spent on inventory there's also no expensive of equipment that needs to be purchased all an accounting firm really needs to do is rent office space and buy furniture and basic technology like computers that's about all the assets that are needed to run the business on the other end of the spectrum we have so-called asset heavy businesses as the name suggests these are the opposite of asset light businesses these asset heavy businesses need a ton of physical assets to run their operations one example of an asset heavy business is an airline in order to operate an airline you obviously need airplanes and those things are not cheap a new Boeing 737 plane would set you back a staggering 106 million asset heavy companies suffer during inflation as they are constantly having to spend larger and larger amounts of money replacing the vast amount of physical assets needed to run their business this is the exact problem Charlie munger's friend in the equipment rental business faced each and every year Char's friend would work hard in his business as The Story Goes he would look up from his desk to see his ual profit sitting out in his equipment rental yard what he means by this is that the equipment rental business is asset heavy equipment gets old and breaks down and has to be replaced with newer equipment at today's higher prices any profit that Charlie's friend made had to be put right back away into the business just to maintain its current operations now compare that to an asset light business with an asset light business there aren't physical assets that have to be constantly replaced at ever higher prices during inflation this this is why Charlie Munger talks about why these asite businesses are superior especially during inflation generating High investment returns through a concentrated portfolio and focusing on asset light businesses are important to get rich during inflation however according to Charlie Munger they both pale in comparison to his next piece of advice one of the great defenses to being worried about inflation is not having a lot of silly needs in your life in other words if you if you haven't created a lot of artificial demand to drown and consumer goods why you have considerable defense against the vicissitudes of Life here's a little story to demonstrate what Charlie means meet John and Michael John and Michael both live in the same neighborhood and make the same income for the sake of this example let's say that income is $6,000 a month each month John's expenses total $3,000 meaning he has an extra $3,000 a month to save an invest calculated by taking his monthly income and subtracting out his monthly expenses Michael on the other hand did not follow Charlie's advice as Charlie put it Michael has a lot of quote silly material needs in his life Michael's total monthly expenses are $5,000 a month this leaves Michael with $1,000 left over each month that he can save and invest while both John and Michael are doing okay now let's see what happens during inflation part of the reason why inflation is so difficult for most people financially is because it causes expenses to increase however at the same time very often a person's income doesn't increase at the same rate as inflation let's see that in action with John and Michael let's say inflation causes their expenses to increase by 10% at the same time unfortunately their incomes stay the same John's expenses are now 3,300 a month and Michaels are 5500 both are still getting by financially but Michael is now cutting it awfully close let's see inflation continues causing the monthly expenses to increase 20% from where they started John's expenses are now $3600 a month Michael's monthly expenses are now $6,000 ouch Michael is in trouble his income is now only just covering his monthly expenses because of inflation this is exactly what Charlie Munger meant when he said that living below your means is the best protection against inflation only time will tell what the future holds when it comes to inflation however as Charlie likes to say following this advice will help prepare you for what he calls the vicissitudes of life so there we have it I hope you enjoyed this video and make sure to subscribe to the channel because it's my goal to make you a better investor by studying the world's greatest investors talk to you again soon
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