저자: JeremyGrantham-채널제목기준출연인물,사회자발언제외 · 외국인
요약 보기
그랜섬은 미국 주식시장이 역사상 최대 버블이며 S&P500이 약 3000(최악 2000)까지 하락할 수 있다고 주장한다. 실러 CAPE 약 34로 1929년 고점보다 높고, 기업 이익률이 과거 50년 평균의 약 2배로 지속 불가능하다고 본다. 미국 PER 약 23배는 다른 선진국 대비 월등히 높다(호주·프랑스·일본 약 16배, 독일 12배, 영국 10배). 과거 버블 붕괴 사례를 근거로 들며 미국 외 자산 선호를 시사한다.
다듬은 글
The United States is not moderately overrated. It's outrageously overrated. As I said a year ago, I think they'll do quite well selling. Billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham warns that the stock market could collapse by a staggering 60% from its current levels. If true, this would be the worst stock market crash since the Great Depression.
For nearly 50 years, Grantham has built a career and a vast fortune by successfully predicting market crashes. And now, in 2024, he describes the current stock market as the biggest bubble he has ever seen. You'll want to stay until the end of this video, because the most worrying part of what Grantham says is that he might be right.
Here's Grantham to explain what he observes in the stock market. My position is that, with a bit of luck, we could settle for something like 3,000 on the S&P, if all goes well and assuming my additional factors don't hit too hard . If additional factors hit hard, which unfortunately could happen, then the market will be closer to 2,000 than 3,000.
Let me point out that last time it reached 666, the number of the devil. And so, even at 2,000, it has made enormous progress since 2009, hasn't it ? Or if you were content to divide the difference by 2,500, but I think it would be better if you counted on 3,000. So I think it's very likely that the market is quite a bit lower.
It is very likely that the economy is considerably weaker. Profit margins will most likely be lower, etc., etc., and it will most likely take longer than you'd like. Well, that's just history. All I do is look at history and say that the best bet is that a bubble will behave like a bubble. And the most remarkable question is, how can people get away with saying that nobody saw it coming every time, when the data screams that it's impossible to miss?
In your first semester of statistics, you couldn't ignore 1929. You couldn't ignore 1972. Absolutely, categorically, you couldn't ignore the year 2000, when it reached 35 times the earnings. The previous high price-benefit ratio had been 21. It reached 35, for God's sake . In Japan, it reached 65. No, you can't ignore these bubbles.
And you couldn't ignore the one in 2021. It reached a peak that rivaled that of 2000. And in some aspects it was cheaper, in others more expensive. But it was a very, very obvious bubble. Don't tell me you can't see these things. And they all break. Without exception. And if you say that , they'll call you a "perma bear".
But the story is quite clear. There are clear bubbles. They've always exploded. This one is breaking. What is the average consequence? If you're lucky , 3,000. As a general principle, the bigger and wider the bubble, the longer and more painful the fall. Japan, the largest of them all, has not yet returned to the stock market highs of 1989 .
It has not returned to its peak in land or real estate. That's quite a long time. It's 34 years and counting. And it still hasn't reached the old peak in nominal terms. It's the biggest delay in recovering a peak and the biggest pain, but it was the biggest bubble. It is perfectly symmetrical. And this one is quite large.
And it is larger than the one from 2000 because it includes real estate and bonds, which that one did not. So, look at what happened in 2000 and the pain it caused. And why was there so much pain? I ask you. Everything you expect to happen this time, happened that time. It was quite painless. The economy experienced a mild recession.
He had no problems with real estate . It had no problems with the debt reduction and yet the NASDAQ fell 82%. It is not an insignificant decline. Amazon fell 92% and the S&P dropped 50%. So keep in mind that this isn't a gentle pullback like the one in 2000. One of the most common ways to see if the market is overvalued is to look at a metric called the Shiller CAPE ratio .
The formula for calculating this ratio is a simple fraction. Above we have the price of the specific stock market index that we are analyzing. In this case, it would be the S&P 500. The S&P 500 is a market capitalization-weighted index of the 500 leading publicly traded companies in the U.S. It is frequently used as an indicator of the entire U.S.
stock market. At the bottom of the fraction are the inflation-adjusted average annual earnings of the S&P 500 over the past 10 years. Using the average earnings of the past 10 years helps smooth out fluctuations in profits that occur during different economic cycles. In simple terms, this means that for businesses, there are good years and bad years in terms of profitability.
When the economy is stronger in a given year, companies usually make higher profits. And when the economy is doing badly, companies, on average, are less profitable. Using average earnings over a 10-year period helps to get a more accurate idea of what earnings are like in a normal year. In addition, it is also important to adjust for inflation, as it can make a company's earnings appear artificially high.
The last few years in the United States have been an example of this. If inflation in a year is 9% and a company's profits also increase by 9% that same year, the company is not actually more profitable after considering the impact of inflation. The company's profits only increased because the price of everything went up due to inflation.
Take a look at this chart of Schiller's CAPE ratio going back to 1871. At the time of making this video, Schiller's CAPE ratio is close to 34. Incredibly, that's higher than the peak reached before the 1929 stock market crash that led to the Great Depression. During the 1929 crash, the stock market fell almost 90% over the next 3 years .
It wasn't until 1954, an astounding 25 years later, that stocks finally returned to the levels reached at the peak of the bubble in 1929. As alarming as this comparison may seem, it only tells part of the story. Things actually get worse when you dig a little deeper. As we discussed earlier, Schiller's CAPE ratio is calculated by taking the stock index price and dividing it by the 10-year average annual inflation-adjusted earnings of the companies that make up that index.
As Grantham regularly mentions, there is an important point that many people are overlooking. The point is that businesses are significantly more profitable now than at any other time in the country's history. Take a look at this chart of the average profit margin of an S&P 500 company over the past 50 years or so.
Profit margins measure the level of profitability of a company in relation to its sales. Or to put it another way, a profit margin shows how much of each dollar in sales the company manages to keep as profit. In this chart, we can see that corporate profit margins have been trending strongly upward since approximately 2000.
In 2019, the average S&P 500 company had a profit margin that was roughly double the average of the past five decades. Grantham argues that these high profit margins are unsustainable. He says these huge record profits are masking just how big the stock market bubble really is. And this is what it means.
At the time of making this video, the S&P 500 is approximately at 5,000. The S&P 500's 10-year inflation-adjusted annual earnings are about 147, giving us the current Schiller PE ratio of 34. However, Grantham believes this earnings figure is too high. These extremely high profits that companies are making are unsustainable in their eyes and will have to return to more normal levels at some point.
Let's say, for the purposes of this example, that he is right. So, instead of earnings being 147, let's lower earnings by 25% to 110. That would send the Schiller PE ratio soaring to an astounding 45, the highest level in US stock market history. This is one of the main reasons why Jeremy Grantham isn't a fan of the US stock market.
In his view , it's not just that the Schiller PE ratio is currently at one of its highest levels ever. It is also that corporate profits are at unsustainably high levels by corporate standards. In his words: "Sooner or later, the bubble will have to burst because it always does in the end." Listen to where Grantham suggests people put their money instead .
He has been hit hard. The way to view this event is that the aberration lies in the non-American actions. Every asset worth mentioning has been boosted by 40 years of falling rates, unsurprisingly, led by housing. But the farms and forests, in which we have some interest, have all gone from yielding 6% to yielding 3%.
They all cost twice as much. They're all more expensive, right? The fine arts, they've all gone through the roof. Everything has gone through the roof . The US market is through the roof. But non- US stocks have curiously lagged behind . And I can't tell you why, because I'm not sure I have a reason for it.
Every asset class should be boosted by low rates, and all have been except for stocks outside the US. Can I give you an idea of why that might be? Clear. Only differences in laws and social structure. Here we have 401ks. We have guaranteed buyers automatically every month for US dollars. These differences have always existed, and until recently we used to get along quite well.
OK. It is only since 2010 that we have had this deviation caused by profits. I understand that. Yes. But why should they be? Forget the profits, we'll grant the US those additional profits. Now I'm talking about the multiplier of those additional gains. The price-to-earnings ratios are much higher when multiplied by these wonderful profits.
It's double counting. According to Grantham, the stock market bubble is concentrated mostly in the United States. The last bubble that Grantham correctly predicted was the great financial crisis. During this crash, the U.S. stock market fell nearly 60% from its peak in October 2007 to its low in March 2009.
In March 2009, the S&P bottomed out at 666 points. Since then, the US stock market has experienced, arguably, the strongest period in the country's history. In the approximately 15 years since it hit its lows, the S&P 500 has soared from 666 to over 5,000 points at the time of making this video. This represents a 7.5-fold increase in a period of just 15 years.
This strong stock market performance comes at a price. According to Grantham, using the traditional price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E ratio for short, the U.S. has by far the most expensive stock market of any developed country. And honestly, it's not even close. Take a look at this list. At the time of making this video, the United States stock market has a P/E ratio of 23 times.
That is much higher than any other developed country by a wide margin. The closest are Australia , France and Japan, with P/E ratios of around 16 times. Canada is at 15 times. Germany is at 12 times. The United Kingdom is at 10 times. And Italy is at nine times. Germany, the United Kingdom, and Italy are massive economies with some of the world's largest companies.
However, the stock markets in these countries have P/E ratios that are approximately half those of the United States. It's absolutely incredible to think about. Wow, even China and Brazil, two countries known for their rapid economic growth, have P/E ratios of only around eight times. This is one-third of the United States' PER ratio.
And this is exactly what Grantham means when he says that the stock market bubble is concentrated in the US. Although Grantham presents a fairly convincing argument, in the end, only time will tell how things develop. Many intelligent people disagree with him and consider Grantham what is called a "perma bear," someone who always believes the market will fall regardless of economic conditions.
Critics would say that even a broken clock is right twice a day. Whether you agree with Grantham or not, it's worth paying attention to what he has to say. As the old saying goes, history doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes. So, there you have it . Make sure you subscribe to the channel because my goal is to make you better investors by studying the best investors in the world. We'll talk soon.
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