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Thank you for joining us today. My name is Marin, and today I have the honor of speaking with legendary investor and author Jim Rogers, who is widely known for his insightful views on economic trends and market behavior. First of all, I'll say that I'm glad to be here. I am touched, and it is a great honor for me.
But I will also tell you that I make many mistakes. You know, I've been making mistakes all my life. Before we delve into the topic , I have a few questions. You can choose one and answer if you want. Okay, Jim, choose five words that describe your thoughts on Trump's tariffs. Trump's tariffs. Absurdity.
Good. I need five words. If you can. Absurdity. Uh, ignorance and disaster. Every other news article is about Trump's tariffs, trade wars, the approaching recession, and volatile markets. What do you think about what we are seeing in the markets right now? Do you think this is just a cyclical period of volatility?
Well, if you've lived a long time like I have, or if you've read a lot of history, you know that trade wars and tariffs usually don't work. Uh, they sometimes help a few people for a few days or weeks, but they've never been successful in changing trading patterns or anything. They never led to great fortunes.
Some pirates may have made great fortunes, but tariffs rarely, if ever, changed the world unless they led to war. Given the way Trump has imposed tariffs and then announced deferrals after countries have entered into negotiations, do you think tariffs are being used more often as a bargaining tool in trade negotiations and a way to address the US trade deficit?
Well, politicians often say that. They say it's for negotiation or trade, but no, they usually think they're doing a good deed. They usually have friends or constituents they think they can help with tariffs or trade wars. But I repeat, very, very few trade wars, tariffs, and trade wars have been successful in history.
If you want to start a war, they are very good at it, but that's about it. What is your view on how tariffs are changing global trade? Well , I'm not sure they will. Mr. Trump believes they will change world trade so that America has a large surplus. But, in my opinion, this will not happen. The US and China continue to trade tariff increases.
Do you think the trade tensions between the US and China that we are seeing now in 2025 are more serious than the trade war of 2018? Any trade war is serious, especially if you are on the other side of the barricades. I think it's more serious because Mr. Trump thinks he needs to do something dramatic, and he thinks trade wars and tariffs will do just that.
So the answer to your question is: it's probably more serious than last time, because Mr. Trump is sure that he has to act decisively. What do you think about the bond market sell-off over the past few days? And could this be the beginning of a phase of selling off American assets? I... I doubt this is the "sell out of America" phase yet.
This will happen because America is the largest debtor country in the history of the world. And, unfortunately, there will come a time when people will start selling American assets. You know, a hundred years ago, Britain was the richest and most powerful country in the world. After 50 years, they went bankrupt.
And the moment came when everyone started selling British assets, despite the fact that it was the number one country. But everyone knew they had to leave Britain, and they did it. We have not yet faced such times in America. But unfortunately, I know they will come, because the US national debt is growing higher and higher.
When I look at the numbers, I'm just shocked, because I think people in Washington should know them. Maybe they don't know. That would be even worse. They may not see the numbers, but these figures simply don't fit in their heads. It's incredible how deep the American debt is and how much it continues to grow.
Now let's talk about changing investment strategies and trading opportunities. My first question from an investment perspective is: what sectors or asset classes will be in focus under Trump? Well, I sold almost all my investments, my shares in the stock market two or three months ago. I still have a little bit in China, a little bit in Pakistan, but I basically exited all markets because I expected serious problems for most of the world's platforms.
So don't ask me where to invest my money. Well, let me just say that I keep my money in US dollars. So, I have a lot of dollars and I sit there watching the market, worrying less about them. So I guess that means I'm most bullish on the US dollar. Yes, the US dollar. I still have some gold and silver.
I keep them to myself. Gold and silver. I admit, I've been buying more silver lately. I plan and hope that my children will one day own my gold and silver. Because, in my opinion , everyone should have a little gold and silver as protection, as insurance, if nothing else. And when the world ends, you'll be glad you have some silver in your closet.
You'll be glad you have gold under your bed, because throughout history, gold, silver, and a few other things have held their value and helped preserve wealth. They have always been like this, do you remember Jesus Christ? Jesus Christ was sold for 30 pieces of silver because in those days silver was the primary store of value.
The United States was actually founded on a silver standard, changed it to gold 100 years later, but for many years we were a silver country. So gold and silver have had value for centuries, and in my opinion, they will continue to have it. Maybe it's because people don't know anything else, but I own gold and silver and hope to be smart enough to buy more.
And I hope my children will one day own my gold and silver. And I repeat that gold and silver have always retained their value. Whether they should do it is another matter, but they have been doing it for hundreds of years. So I own some gold and silver. Are there certain asset classes in which traders will find greater opportunities?
How can investors adjust their strategies? Well, I mean, if I were a trader, which I'm not. I'm more of an investor than a trader , I would look for assets to short sell because I expect the markets to be bad for a while . I suspect we are in for very bad stock markets for a long time. So, if I were a trader, I would learn to play the dip and start selling short positions.
And the stocks that I would probably sell short are the stocks, you know, that were very popular in the last days of the bull market, technology stocks. Usually, when markets are going down, the best thing to do is to play on the decline of popular stocks from the last bull market. There are many ways to play a bear market today.
There are ETFs, exchange-traded funds; You can play on the decline of ETFs of individual industries, often companies. There are many ways to play a bear market. Right now I would say: study ETFs, find the ones that you know will have problems, and play them down. You can bet on the decline of baskets of market shares.
You can play for a decline in the US market , you can buy, you can play for a decline in baskets of stocks, for example, the S&P 500 . You can play on the S&P 500 basket going down. You can play on the auto basket going down. You can play on the decline of almost everything. So play on the decline of such baskets if you don't know the specific companies, but if you don't know them, you probably shouldn't play on the decline.
Um, I mean, investing is a tough game. She looks light. Everyone says how easy it is. Everyone says, "I could buy Apple stock." No, they couldn't, or they would have done it if they could have bought Apple a long time ago. Most people simply don't know enough. But if you know enough about certain industries or companies that you think will have problems, sell them short.
You can make a lot of money and protect yourself if you know how to play the decline. And everyone who invests should learn to play the decline, because it is an important part of the investment business. Well, all investors, if they want to be successful, should not listen to other people, including me.
They should only invest in things they know a lot about. Everyone who watches this knows a lot about one thing. I don't know what exactly, but they know something. And that's exactly where they should start . They should start looking at areas where they know a lot. Find out what's good in this area.
And that's where they should invest. They shouldn't listen to hot advice. They shouldn't listen to any hot advice, because it will ruin them. They should just stick to what they know. Sometimes when I tell people this, they say, "Oh, that's boring." If you want to be successful, be boring. Be a boring investor and you will be very successful.
Oh my God. And everyone will love you. Everyone will love you. Throughout your career, you have had a reputation for taking a long-term view of investments. How do you think this Trump-induced volatility is affecting your long-term investment philosophy? Well, I don't usually change my investment forecasts because of one person.
Of course, if the person was extremely influential and implementing major changes, I would have to do it . But no, I don't do that. Mr. Trump doesn't really know what he wants to do. He knows he wants to do a lot of things. He wants to make a lot of changes, but I don't think Mr. Trump really has a plan.
Do you remember Margaret Thatcher? Yes. Margaret Thatcher was a person who, if something happened, we would more or less know what she would do because we knew how she thought. I don't think Mr. Trump has any master thought process. So I'm not sure what he'll do. I don't think he knows what he's going to do.
Do you think so? So, this is a problem for a potential investor. But as for me, I keep mostly cash in US dollars . I have some investments in China and Uzbekistan, but other than that, I'm mostly observing right now. If Mr. Trump imposes these tariffs, and if they go into effect, which they probably will, it will not help anyone in the world .
This certainly won't help most Chinese stocks because the Chinese economy and Chinese investors will suffer. Maybe I should sell my Chinese investments. But my plan for them is that they will one day go to my children. I expect China over the next hundred years... I expect China to become the most important or extremely successful country in the world.
So my plan is that one day my kids will say, “Oh, look at these Chinese stocks we have . We are rich." This is my plan. But don't think it will necessarily work just because it's my plan. I have seen many plans fail. Everyone has great plans until they get punched in the face. Then you change your plan.
You have to change your plans. For me, fundamental analysis is the best. He is extremely important. And if you don't know what you're doing, you shouldn't do anything. And fundamental analysis and research teach you to understand companies and industries. And if you're going to invest, you have to know what you're doing.
And that includes fundamental analysis. Of course, there are people who are well versed in technical analysis. I don't, but if you know each other, then do it. I know very , very rich people who have made money from technical analysis. So if you are good at it , please do it and then call me. My main impression is that Mr.
Trump doesn't really have a guiding philosophy. He just watches TV, and whatever someone says that day and he likes, that's what he does. This is his new plan. Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't see it. Margaret Thatcher—I knew what she would say. You know, if the world were to end, I know what Margaret Thatcher would do.
If the world were to end, I'm not sure what Mr. Trump would do. And I don't know if he knows. But if you can figure it out, then it's worth taking action. But please , don't act until you know—until you've done thorough research to understand what you're doing. This is not easy. Playing for gold and silver to fall is different.
But you can bet on gold and silver going down if you think they will fall in price. It's very easy to sell them at a discount. I'm not playing for a drop in gold and silver. I own gold and silver. But yeah, if you're looking, usually the best assets to short are stocks that have been very popular. You know, look back at the past bull market and find the stocks that were really hot.
These are the stocks for short positions, and I do n't know what they are now. I know what they could be like. There probably should be, but I'm not playing for relegation right now. So, Jim, do you think a recession is coming? I know a recession is coming. Yes. First of all, America has had recessions every few years since the country's founding.
All countries had recessions every few years. And we will have another one. This is now the longest period in American history without a recession. So I know a recession is coming. We're probably even already in it. Maybe it has already begun. But I know the answer to your question: I know we will have more recessions.
I hope I live long enough to see many recessions. I hope you live long enough to see many, many recessions. We prepared a quick blitz round. I'll give you two words and you have to choose one, okay? If you had to choose one word. Yes. If I say Apple or Amazon, Apple. S&P 500 or Dow Jones? S&P. Singapore or New York?
Oh, Singapore. Technology stocks or banking stocks? Technology stocks? Technological. Sorry, my French accent. You see, I said bank stocks. Bank shares. US dollar or Japanese yen? US dollar. For young investors who are just starting to navigate the markets influenced by these political and economic factors .
What advice would you give them for the next decade? Be boring, and then maybe something. I would say: be boring. Stick to what you know. I do n't know what you know. Maybe it's cars. Maybe fashion. Whatever it is, I don't care. Hold on to this. Everything you know has some potential there. Whether it's fashion, or cars, or sports, whatever it is, there 's always something that will be successful.
There are successful companies in this field . That's where you should stay, and that's how you will succeed. And if it's a fashion, go for it. Invest in fashion. If it's cars, deal with them. Whatever it is, stick to what you know. Don't listen to me. Stick to what you know. What three pieces of advice would you give to someone new to the market?
or what book would you recommend to someone just starting out? If you are new to the market, there is only one thing you should do: stick to what you know. Don't listen to other people. Don't go to a bar on a Saturday night to listen to hot tips. You will receive lots of hot tips. Many people will give you hot advice.
Ignore them. Ignore all the hot tips. They will destroy you. Just stick to what you know. Everyone who watches this knows a lot about something specific. Stick to what you know. And you will tell me: "This is boring." Be boring. If you want to be a successful investor, be boring. Stick to what you know.
And don't try to do what you don't know. This will destroy you. We have come to the end of this interview. Jim, thank you very much for your time. It was a real pleasure to chat with you. I am pleased. Thank you very much for watching. I think we learned a lot.
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