저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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AMD는 2024년 부진했으나 2025년 전망이 강하다고 주장. 데이터센터 AI(MI300X) 수요와 PC 교체 주기(2025~2026) 도래, Windows 구버전 지원 종료, AI PC 수요가 촉매. 잉여현금흐름은 2026년 93억 달러, 2028년 160억 달러로 전망되며 Wall Street 추정 인용. 포워드 PER은 약 25배로 2022년 이후 거의 최저 수준, DCF 적정가 180달러 vs 현재 127달러로 저평가 주장. 결론적으로 2025년 이전 매수 적합 판단.
다듬은 글
AMD has underperformed in 2024 but its prospects look strong heading into 2025 and Beyond two of the more notable reasons for that is because Nvidia is not able to keep up with demand in the data center artificial intelligence segment and that spillover leads to increasing opportunity for AMD who has said that its Mi 300X product for one of its best products of all all time the ramp up is one of the best they've seen ever in their history coupled with that fact is that amd's participation in the personal computer industry and the expected Rebound in PC sales in 2025 and 2026 has the company positioned excellently to benefit from those two catalyst so should investors buy AMD stock before 2025 comparing it against its valuation also I'll be sharing ith AMD stock and I'll put that all together and let you know if I think the stock is a buy for 2025 tha looking at amd's Revenue over the last decade you you see very nice Improvement up to $24 billion in the trailing 12-month period That's up from under $8 billion in 2019 so it's more than tripled its Revenue in the last several years but the difficulty for AMD has been in PC sales and gaming sales AMD makes custom designs for gaming systems like the Sony PlayStation 5 and that segment hasn't recovered as strongly as those device console sales have flattened and decreased because it's several years old now and the newest model is not going to come out next year either and so that's going to bring down that segment the P the personal computer segment also struggled in 2024 because so many people bought computers in 2020 and in 2021 when they initially learned that they're going to be working from home or learning from home and so computers last anywhere between four to 6 years depending on how intense your use case might be for someone like me I couldn't use a computer for 6 years because I need the latest generation technology I use computers intensively for editing and video recording and financial analysis and other things and so for someone like me I might upgrade much quicker but for someone who's just using it for browsing the internet answering emails maybe some bill pay they can theoretically use a computer for Seven 8 nine years even so on average it's a 4 to six year refresh cycle and they're going to be hitting that Prime window of that refresh cycle in 2025 adding fuel to that fire is that Microsoft is ending support for its older generation Windows system so many consumers that have that older generation Windows system will need to make a choice about what to do with those systems that are not being updated by Windows which is going to facilitate more upgrades and finally of course PCS are now being embedded with AI technology which is going to make people want to purchase that latest personal computer because it has something extra something that none of those older generation computers have and it's those AI capabilities all of which is going to benefit AMD and of course the most obvious factor that amds benefited from is the massive amount of investment that's going into these data centers that are optimized for artificial intelligence AMD recently launched its own accelerated GPU for that segment and it's going very well and 2025 is expected to be even better than it was in 2024 so the cash flow from operations you'll notice a big draw down here as a result of those downside factors I highlighted earlier and you've only begun to see The Rebound in amd' over the next 24 months it's its cash flow from operations exceeds its previous Peak here over $4 billion I wouldn't be surprised if it approaches $5 billion in free cash flow over the next two years in fact if we look at Wall Street projections for where amd's free cash flow will be over the next few years you can see a significant ramp up is forecasted from Wall Street about AMD in 2026 Wall Street expects $9.3 billion in free cash flow from AMD so its prospects are robust to be sure and those free cash flows are expected to continue growing all the way to 2028 where its free cash flow is expected to rise to $16 billion and that's fueled by all four segments starting to work in harmony together for AMD the gaming segment I mentioned it's in Decline right now because those consoles are getting long in the tooth eventually those consoles need to be updated and the Next Generation technology AMD could participate in those upgrades as well for the Sony PlayStation 6 perhaps might be coming out in 2026 2027 or 2028 they tend to be released once every 10 years or so so that could be a catalyst for the gaming segment meanwhile the PC segment I already highlighted the catalysts for that and robustly all the way through 2030 similar story with the return on invested capital for AMD during the peak it was well over 40% and I wouldn't be surprised again if over the next two years it surpasses that previous Peak approaches 40 50% again remember Nvidia its main rival is up over 100% now that's unsustainable to have that over 100% I suspect nvidias will come down but amds will likely recover back up to these levels where it was reaching when all of its business segments were working well together and you didn't have these unprecedented circumstances in the aftermath of the pandemic all right so now that we looked at a lot of the prospects the uh metrics and the performance of the business let's look at the valuation and when you measure AMD stock by the forward price to earnings ratio it's trading at near the cheapest price it's about 25 a little less than 25 and it's only been cheaper one other time and that was in January of 2023 for a brief moment before it recovered and other than that the stock has traded at a more expensive valuation another way I like to value a business I have amd's intrinsic value per share at $180 remember the current market price is $127 so when I look at at it in this way it shows me the stock is undervalued as well so whether I look at the discounted cash flow or the forward PE AMD stock looks undervalued this is magnified by the fact that if you look at the expectations for free cash flow growth over the next several years and the drivers of that growth over the next 5 years it signals that investors are getting a good value with AMD stock yes yes I do think AMD stock is a buy before 2025
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