저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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엔비디아는 상반기 급등 후에도 2025년 AI 수요(블랙웰 품절, 대형 클라우드 4사 지출 증가 지속)로 매출 성장이 최소 2년 이어질 것으로 봄. 포워드 PE 30배, ROIC 107%, 가격 결정력이 강점. DCF 적정가 $314, 멀티플 분석 시 2025년 말 $170 중간값으로 현 주가 $133 대비 저평가라고 주장. 결론적으로 2025년 전 매수 적합.
다듬은 글
Nvidia stock investors have had a great year or I should say have had a great first half of the year because when you look at Nvidia stock price gains nearly all of those gains happened in the first half of the year but what does it look like for 2025 should investors buy Nvidia stock before the start of reviewing the company's prospects on important metrics like Revenue cash flow return on invested capital and of course looking at several different valuation methods to determine if the stock is a good buy at current prices so y prediction for where I think Nvidia stock will end up by the end of 2025 and I'll look at the forward price to earnings multiple to perform a comprehens of analysis of the company's valuation so let's take a look at all these important metric shared with you the price action of Nvidia stock year to date in 2024 and you can see here the company share price at $133 per share is right about where it was around July of this year so it's uh most of the gains the company experienced happened in the first half of the year and those gains were really strong up from about $45 a share to about $130 per share of course split adjusted I'm happy about the Returns on Nvidia and it's been the best performing stock on my list of top stocks to buy this year I'm hoping for a similar year in 2025 but let's consider the prospects for next year looking at Revenue growth Nvidia has absolutely exploded in this metric less than 30 billion in annual revenue in trailing 12-month Revenue in 20123 and that exploded to 113 billion in the most recent trailing 12 months all indications point to this number being roughly 80% 70% larger than what it is in this year nvidia's Next Generation technology black row which is coming out as we speak is reported to be sold out and there's been adjectives to describe demand for this product insane is the adjective that the CEO used not strong demand not very strong demand not excellent demand for this product but insane demand for this product Nvidia has said it's sold out for much of next year in this next Generation product which is going to generate higher average selling prices than the previous generation technology Nvidia has at least a couple of more years of strong growth for its data center accelerated Computing product the GPU product and the whole product Suite because the buyers of this product have signaled that they will continue increasing spending and the buyers are relatively few about four or five buyers constitute half of nvidia's data center segment Revenue right these are the large CL Cloud providers Amazon Microsoft alphabet meta platforms those four are a large percentage of nvidia's overall business and I follow all four of those companies and I've been following them for years and what I heard from their management teams is that whatever they spent on nvidia's product in the previous two years it's going to be even more than that in the next two years that's what they said that's what those companies management teams said so unless there is an abrupt stop to the purchases from those companies nvidia's revenue is likely to increase from this rate from this level for at least the next two years so that's sort of the type of demand that Nvidia is seeing and then those buyers are buying so much that there isn't any left over for other buyers of these products and so if those buyers were to decrease their purchases there's some demand from other buyers that could step in although that remains to be seen if the magnitude of those purchases can offset some of those large buyers I don't think so I don't think so so I think Nvidia is still dependent on those large Cloud providers for these purchases for now and nvidia's revenue is coming with increasing profits that's what's been really impressive about nvidia's explosion is that they're selling their products at premium top tier prices they're not offering promotions or incentives they're not experiencing those large buyers I mean they have strong purchasing power Amazon Microsoft alphabet meta platforms when they buy products and services from other companies they're able to negotiate very good prices and very good terms for themselves because they have such large purchasing power right they're giant businesses but when they go up against Nvidia Nidia still exercises the pricing power against those large buyers because there's so much demand for nvidia's products there's such a waiting list for nvidia's products that Nvidia can exercise that kind of negotiating power and say well if you don't want to buy it there's people waiting in line so here's the price take it or leave it and that's resulted in excellent growth in earnings per share for NVIDIA over the last couple of years similar story can be said for its return on invested Capital which has been phenomenal soaring to 107% I don't expect these levels to persist for very much longer but again it highlights how strong the business model is and the fact that Nvidia outsources manufacturing allows the company's profitability to soar even more because it doesn't need to reinvest that money into increasing manufacturing capacity so that it can fulfill that soaring Demand right it outsources that and its Outsourcing partners are the ones that are spending all the capital to increase manufacturing capacity to keep up with nvidia's orders and so far they haven't been able to keep up so they keep spending more to try and increase their manufacturing capacity and nvidia's products have been sold out for several quarters now now let's get into valuation starting with the forward price to earnings ratio which at a forward PE of 30 Nvidia stock looks relatively cheap because it 30% in each year for the next couple of years so when you're comparing the price to earnings with the earnings growth you're getting a good value for the price with Nvidia stock another way I like to value a stock is by doing a discounted cash flow analysis and with Nvidia I found the intrinsic value per share at $314 and that's a big upside from the current market price of $133 I even did several different scenarios to analyze Nvidia stock at lower growth rates so if I used the 4% growth rate instead of a 5% growth rate Nvidia stock would be worth $290 per share intrinsically and then at 3% it would be $270 per share so I did various scenario analyses here for Nvidia stock using the DCF and nearly all of them provided me with the conclusion hod so that's two already valuation methods that I've done and they both pointed to undervaluation and then finally I did a multiples analysis with an earnings per share forecast so I looked at the earnings per share forecast for 2026 I applied a forward PE multiple and I did several scenarios of this type of valuation analysis and I also found this one provided me the conclusion that Nvidia stock is undervalued that it could be reaching at the end of 2025 a price of $170 at the midpoint compared to the current market price of $133 so in conclusion all of my valuation methods have pointed to Nvidia stock being undervalued and given the opportunity ahead and nvidia's competitive position the answer to the question I posed in the headline is yes I do think Nvidia stock is a buy before 2025
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