저자: Kevin · 외국인
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밈주식(GME, AMC) 열풍은 개인투자자의 기본적 분석 공유에서 시작된 운동으로, 커뮤니티 실사·거래 결제 속도 개선·가격 투명성 등 긍정적 효과가 있다. 다만 확증편향·밴드왜건 오류, 반대의견 마녀사냥, 레버리지 단기옵션 투기 등 위험이 있다. 개별 종목보다 운동 자체를 지지하되 분산투자와 교육이 중요하다. 공매도는 기업 자본조달을 방해한다고 비판한다. 과거 설명이 대부분이며 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 방향 예측은 명시적으로 없다.
다듬은 글
the so-called meme stocks and of course i've got to begin with amc and those meme stocks they're trading this stuff on their phone all the time when does this go away or are we going to live with meme trading forever in the diamond hens and the fact that everybody online talks about holding gme and amc i've been reporting on the stock market for more than 40 years i've never seen anything like this meme stocks and cryptos represent a whole new element in the financial world hey everyone meet kevin here it is no surprise that the pandemic lockdowns that kept us stuck at home led to many of us looking for new ways to build wealth and what a better way to do it than to basically buy and sell stocks that were on a beautiful road of a v-shaped recovery essentially straight up for much of 2020 and to help us along the way we look towards our social media connections in the community to help us with due diligence through reddit or wall street bans or youtube through creators like a deep effing value who have been talking about the fundamentally undervalued nature of gamestop since well before the pandemic but folks there are some victories and problems that we have to talk about with this movement so what's good and what's bad about this movement well the first thing we should do is try to understand where it came from the genesis and really where it came from was from us sharing fundamental analysis online whether it was deep effing value in 2019 talking about gamestop or me talking about tesla in 2018 and 2019 or other folks sharing their research online subject to commentary the pandemic just amplified the voices of creators sharing fundamental research on stocks online and this is really what started the basis of the wall street bats momentum style movement but what came next led to a lot of good and some bad what the movement has really turned into is a movement that is very anti-fear uncertainty and doubt pro by the dip pro holding for the long term pro building wealth for the long term and being anti-suit thanks to the disasters that limited price appreciation on robin hood when we started learning about the shenanigans of the dtcc the robin hoods the citadels the melvins even though some of them say hey this was a three or five sigma event we could have never expected something like this we have enough energy in this momentum movement to say retail investors have had enough they're tired of being beat down by wall street and the momentum movement is really a representation of the average retail investors coming together with fundamental analysis and then extrapolating that into a phenomenal movement that has honestly turned into a program designed to screw the hedge funds and the people anti the movement and this has created some pros and some cons and those are what we have to talk about to be fully transparent about the entire momentum stock movement so first let's talk about some of the good community due diligence is one of my favorite things about the momentum stock movement because the reality is the more we share our fundamental analysis with other people with different mindsets and perspectives people who aren't sitting in our office at a hedge fund or under the same roof thinking the same way subject to group think fallacies we can put our research out into the world and let the world critique it a movement of crowdsourcing this enormous amount of investment knowledge this is a belief that kathy wood at arc invest has is that research should be shared and it should be critiqued by others so that researchers who came up with the original research can make it better and more transparent this is really an idea that has been popularized by reddit it has been popularized by us retail investors and now we're starting to see wall street style investors like kathy wood adopt these practices for themselves it's very smart and hands down one of the greatest things to come out of this movement has been community-based due diligence on stocks and investments community-based due diligence on what risks are and what positive catalysts are we've also had a massive push by not only the retail community but also the sec and regulators at demanding faster settlement for our stock trades without getting into the weeds of how settlement works basically the gamestop disaster was exacerbated by a t plus two style settlement time frame where essentially we might trade a stock instantaneously but it actually takes up to two to three days sometimes in the background for those shares to actually trade hands and this creates risks in an environment and can lead to the implosion of trading gamestop like what we saw when robin hood and other brokers limited our ability to trade now knowing about all the details about t plus two settlement time frames isn't super important but one thing the momentum stock movement has been super amazing for is making sure that we get away from t plus two settlement this is where it takes two to three days to settle stock transactions this leads to information asymmetry which gives the hedge funds more advantages we need to get to t plus zero or t plus in the afternoon settlement time frames blockchain might even help us make this happen this helps us prevent debacles like what happened with gamestop where all of a sudden we got brokerages going we can't handle trades we can't let you buy the stock anymore because we don't have enough stuff settled and it's creating too much risk in fact consider this the momentum stock movement is also one that is a huge proponent of demanding better transparency why don't we have better transparency on short interest data why don't we have the same transparency that hedge funds have why do they have informational asymmetry advantages that that give them better opportunities than us what makes them better than us this is almost class warfare by the textbook what gives them opportunities that we do not have and that sort of transparency is something the momentum movement is very very very good at promoting however it does get affected by the risk factor that when the momentum movement devolves into a witch hunt against people who potentially provide alternate opinions we actually end up producing transparency which is very dangerous to them anyone who recommends selling is the enemy which is why i become a hated figure on reddit's wall street bets but the momentum movement is also really really really good for helping all of us as traders or investors get better and more transparent pricing see consider this five years ago it was abnormal to have free stock trading now free stock trading is almost the norm in fact free options trading is almost the norm if anything stock trading is totally normal to be free and options trading is becoming more normalized as a free option but what we've also discovered is that we're not always being told all of the details that go into our pricing and so while we've gotten what appears to be free we might actually be paying in other forms that are much more complicated to help us actually shop for the best pricing models see for example over the last few months six months we've all become very familiar with this phrase payment for order flow which is where we actually become the product not the customer our decisions become a revenue source and not the customer who deserves to be taken care of the other thing the movement is doing is helping perpetuate more transparent pricing for us to be able to buy and sell stocks i mean think about it we haven't even really popularized payment for order flow until the momentum stock movement but now we know ah there's a difference between good pricing and premium pricing and that one is the best and one is actually not the best thanks to hearings in congress on this we already know that there are more shenanigans at play that we demand more transparency on for example we're told that when we do trades brokers have the incentive to get us the best pricing but in congress through testimony we have heard that best pricing actually isn't the best pricing that potentially good pricing is best pricing and that the best pricing is actually known as premium pricing now we can start demanding change and comparison options so we can finally figure out who is the cheapest is it fidelity td ameritrade is it robinhood is it weeble we don't know it's hard to compare right now but the movement is creating more demand for change and the sec is listening and we will be getting more transparent pricing very soon and the movement is to thank for that so this is a little bit of a mixed bag but the momentum movement demands transparency and the more we highlight the demand for transparency and the more the more we vote with the usage of apps that we choose to use the more transparency ultimately we get for example after the debacle of our payment for order flow we had companies like public.com come out and say we're not going to use payment for order flow anymore now we have also seen a whole lot of new folks begin to invest this does create a little bit of an educational balance because a lot of folks started investing in 2021 a lot of folks started investing in 2020 and we've had way more folks get into investment than we were investing in general than we've ever had before this is really good but it does come with a risk factor that we do have to balance education and this is something that's very complicated because the last thing we want as a movement is to see folks coming into the movement yoloing or making bets like you only live once hence yolo and then ending up losing or winning big on two-week call options then if you win big doing it again until you end up losing it kind of turns into a little bit of a casino fallacy and ultimately that has a risk factor of leading people to get jaded and leave the market and this is where educated investing will become something very very important as part of this movement and education is available but actually getting folks to be educated is on everybody themselves everyone watching should be interested in doing whatever they can to promote their own education now we do know that the sec and regulators are pro well essentially probing how investors invest and how new investors can basically open up margin or option accounts and sure maybe in the future there'll be requirements that essentially require folks to prove that they're educated in options or prove that they know when their account is going to be exposed to a margin call rather than be surprised that all of a sudden you have too much debt on your stocks and they can be sold at the bottom of the market more disclaimers might come but ultimately i'm a big fan of the free market and i lean towards the odds that the sec probably isn't going to do anything in terms of regulating the momentum stock movement if anything we'll see more transparency and pricing from brokerages maybe we'll even see brokerages be required to act as fiduciaries for our case to make sure we always get the best pricing whether that's good or premium pricing so this is very very important but ultimately i expect the sec when it comes to us and education the sec is going to throw their hands up and say hey look you being educated is on you now many of you know that i haved down below including one on stocks in the psychology of money and a separate one on real estate investing in property management you should check those out linked down below over this next four to six weeks we're going to be adding a lot of content including content on technical analysis and options trading which are a big thing that we really want more nuance and detail on so that content will be coming out by the end of july so stay tuned for that the next risk is the bandwagon fallacy see with momentum stocks they have a lot of momentum because they gain a lot of social traction and that leads a lot of people to buy into momentum stocks as they are rising and unfortunately sometimes when they are starting to peak this creates massive risks which is something very important to remember when you're investing when stocks are going up you are increasing your risk exponentially when stocks are losing value when they're falling you're actually decreasing your risk in purchasing those assets that is a big danger that the bandwagon issue creates because we see more people in a stock we want to be in we buy in high that is risky and that is a risk to the entire movement the more people get burned by a movement the less supporters you end up having when we look at candlesticks on a computer we see green we get excited wrong emotion the opposite emotion that we should have things are getting more expensive you're shopping in a mall that is now more expensive when things are going down we should be seeing ah black friday sale things are getting cheaper but instead we get fearful and we get that feeling in our stomach and our gut that oh my gosh i made a mistake i did the work i i made a huge mistake and i did a horrible thing and my portfolio is getting ruined and what happens well usually when we're in pain something known as fight or flight sets in but the problem is you can't fight you can't fight stocks going down because they're inanimate objects instead we tend to flee we sell when things are going down this is an example of the danger of the bandwagon fallacy that is it's very dangerous to hop onto momentum without proper conviction and education and diversity in what you're getting into and to where if you're getting in on green and you're selling out on red is it potentially because we haven't considered proper education or proper diversity and algorithms like youtube algorithms don't help with that the more algorithms focus on enhancing positive hype style content and the more algorithms focus on silencing negative related content the less folks end up getting educated and the less folks end up educated the more retail investors as a whole could end up getting weaponized another risk to the movement the fact that hedge funds can weaponize our movement think about paul tudor jones on cnbc the other day the guy's like oh you know commodities are really shorted you know if if retail happened to get involved commodities could double or triple it's like they're trying to bait the movement that's not what the movement is about you've got to be educated and be aware that the hedgies are trying to take advantage of the movement and trojan horse the movement and that is a risk factor and so this is where the bandwagon fallacy is a huge risk factor for the momentum movement if people like here a former wall street bets mod from 2019 to 2020 continues spreading fun like this quote on any given day 90 of people on wall street bets lose money well then the entire movement could collapse that's very bad we don't want the movement to collapse because the movement is good the movement encourages people to invest it encourages better pricing for retail it encourages faster settlement it com and encourages transparency and community due diligence but the risk factor is uneducated folks who don't even know that they don't know they're unconsciously incompetent potentially becoming jaded leaving the movement altogether thus weakening the movement this is a risk factor but we do have another plus though blockchain technology has actually been massively benefited and by the popularity of momentum trading sometimes for example when cryptocurrencies like dogecoin become memified like when elon musk memifies or glorifies something like a dogecoin or a rocket coin you know elon musk says something and they just launch then what we get is actually more transparency by default now this is wonderful because we want more attention on blockchain because again blockchain transparent by default accessibility is the norm not the exception we start thinking about investing in assets like we never have before like with non-fungible tokens and when the media gets involved because bigger names like elon musk are getting involved not always to the benefit of the movement but still getting involved what we're actually doing is we're popularizing the systems that underlay the individual stocks or currencies now to me momentum investing is really like a big castle that everybody can be a part of and can contribute to but keep in mind that every security you invest in whether it's doge or amc or gme is really just a trojan horse for getting you into that castle so that you're part of the movement it doesn't mean you have to always ride or die with that individual security i say that because i always want you to remember that it's important to diversify your portfolio and not yolo everything on one of the horses the movement can stay strong without the individual horses this is a really important separation because the last thing we want is everybody all in on one thing and potentially losing money which could lead to the collapse of the movement the movement itself is separate from the individual securities and as long as it gets you into more investing diversified investing better pricing for retail and the encouragement of faster settlement you're you take a part in the community due diligence and the transparency then that's very good these gateway trojan horses are very very very good when it becomes a problem is when these gateway investments end up encouraging witch hunting the vilification of contra opinions and the bandwagon or all-in fallacy or worse gambling the get rich quick the sex appeal the lambo the thousand percent returns in the week or worse people taking the money they've set aside for medical bills and health care in their livelihood and going into glorified options trading without the proper education which has in the past led to suicide folks that is bad but we surround this with another good consider how companies win why did hertz not go completely to zero after going through bankruptcy part of the reason was because the judge realized the massive amounts of retail traders who would have gotten burned by letting the company go completely bankrupt and so hertz wins the people investing the retail traders investing in hertz have won the amc investors who are helping accelerate the growth of amc's stock price have allowed amc to raise a lot of capital to help them pay down their debt and to help them advance into this new world the rise of gamestop stock has helped gamestop eliminate all of their debt and help them prepare to transition to a future of nfts and potentially more in sight entertainment to make gamestop and anchor for malls like an anchor store for malls rather than being an actual anchor where they hold down them all we want people to come anchor store is a good thing anchor is bad let me clarify that and the same could be true in the future for example lordstown motors if our lordstown motors is getting shorted into oblivion because short sellers are trying to do good for rooting out fraud then all short sellers are doing is making it harder for companies like lordstown motors to raise capital to fund their operations which could end up crushing innovation in those companies again you know short sellers might say that the market should quickly flush out inefficient businesses but us as a movement see short selling as fundamentally wrong that instead if lordstown motors stock price goes up and they're able to raise capital and they're able to provide an innovative product to market because they were able to actually raise money on the market then they should have the right to do that and so this is another big win for the momentum movement and consider this business insider has reported that as of june 9th 2021 short sellers have shrunk their positions in heavily shorted stocks by 80 reuters reported that on may 26 2021 short sellers in gamestop are down 6.7 billion dollars to date folks the movement is very very powerful it does have risks the witch hunt risk the bandwagon fallacy risk and the gambling risk are the biggest ones to the movement that could derail the movement which is bad we don't want that because the movement is doing so much good even though wall street likes to make fun of the movement the movement does a lot of good now here's some personal recommendations and a bottom line my personal recommendations when it comes to any kind of momentum type stock is you always want to remember there's something known as peak media when something hits peak media it can often times go down afterwards and remember that when prices go up things become riskier when prices go down things become less risky these are not targeted at any individual stock you have to yourself identify when a peak media event exists or when you think that one exists and you yourself have to evaluate what your style of investing is and this is where i would give you some recommended options if you have no idea why you're investing in certain companies you might want to ask yourself well first of all what conviction level do i have in companies but then in addition to that you should ask yourself why are you investing in the first place what is your goal if your goal is to buy and hold for fundamental reasons more power to you you should dime in hand as long as the fundamentals remain true to why you are investing in that company if you are a trader make your trades if you're a day trader trade daily if you're a swing trader trade whenever you feel like it there's no harm in doing that if you have made life-changing amounts of money in a momentum stock you should never feel guilty for changing your life and realizing at least some of those life-changing elements if you have the money to pay off your debts build a business and transform your future do it realize that game gain and set aside money for taxes if you lost massive amounts of money share your story help those around you we're a movement of transparency doing the same thing expecting different results though would be the definition of insanity so definitely fact check what your investing style has been like depending on how successful or not you have been personally my recommendation is you want to be a part of the movement you want to be a part of the movement which means have some exposure to the different trojan horses maybe you've gone a few percent in amc a little bit in gme maybe you've got a little bit in doge a little bit in momentum kryptos that you're finding that's a great way to support the movement but you don't need to be all in and that's not to say sell what you have it's to say always remember a portfolio has a balance of everything you want a balance of real estate you want a balance of long stocks you want a balance of long options if you've got a lot of short options short term options consider balancing out with longer-term options or even index funds to balance out some of your risk now you just want to make sure you're properly seated at the right place in the rocket ship so to speak you want to make sure you're in the right place where you're comfortable with your risks and your exposure just to make sure that your ultimate long-term goal is number one supporting the movement number two building your wealth let's understand this every movement goes through cycles the momentum stock movement was very very hot in january and it was not in march and april this is normal we go through cycles in the momentum movement the most important thing is that the movement stays more positive than the small problems that it has so you remember this movement is all about the average everyday dumb money investor gaining transparency better pricing community due diligence feedback and the encouragement to invest the movement is not the meme stock itself it's the trojan horse that gets you into the movement but we've got to watch for those risks which are the acceleration of the vilification of contra opinions or due diligence that doesn't agree with the rocket ship mentality and this can be exacerbated by leveraged short-term options and yellowing so we've got to be careful with those risks but with those risks aside to the millions of new investors first of all welcome and make sure you're on the right place in this movement and then as long as we're all in the right place more comfortable where we are together we can involve or evolve into a more well-balanced group of investors and become an investing group that's one where everyone wins the movement then continues with a focus on wealth and financial equality for all of us positivity and unity can help us prevent the small corruptions inside the movement from destroying an incredible and very powerful movement for good i cannot wait to see this movement evolve and if you can't wait make sure to subscribe to this channel share this video if you found it helpful use the coupon code link down below as well thanks so much
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