저자: Kevin · 외국인
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연준 파월 의장 발언(2021.6 FOMC) 분석. 파월이 단기 인플레 상승과 공급병목 장기화를 인정했으나 인플레는 일시적이라고 강조. 금리인상 시점은 2022말~2023초로 앞당겨졌고 점도표에서 2023년 인상 응답 13명으로 증가. 자산매입 테이퍼링 논의 시작. 10년물 금리 1.5→1.57 상승 후 장기 하락 추세 언급. 저자는 9~10월 인플레 둔화 기대, 테슬라·기술·EV·에너지·소비재 등 롱 포지션 유지 주장.
다듬은 글
this video is brought to you by public.com meet kevin where you can get a free stock link down below folks if you're curious about what the heck jerome powell just said and what this might mean for the month coming ahead you'll want to tune in to this video hey everyone meet kevin here today we heard jerome powell present not only the fomc statement but projections about our economy going forward we learned a lot about his thoughts on inflation what we expect the fed to do with interest rates and tapering are we expecting a taper and when are we expecting it we have a lot of insights in this to begin though jerome powell came off a lot more aggressively than he usually does today we had hawkish jerome rather than dovish jerome which is just a reference to somebody believing the economy is doing well and performing strongly compared to when someone is dovish when we believe that the market is not doing well to me this really felt like real talk it felt upbeat but it also felt very real about what the actual data is showing regarding inflation and how this actually plays into or maybe modifies what the federal reserve believes regarding action the federal reserve decided to keep rates at zero we expected this the fedex stated that they are maintaining their asset purchases at 120 billion per month we expected this however we got signals in today's meeting that suggested the potential for two interest rate hikes in 2023 along with some economic projections that suggest those rates could come as soon as the n or rate hikes could come as soon as the end of 2022 which is a faster rate than expected likely to somewhere between half to one percent now we also have mentioned that the taper could be coming sooner than expected and because of this sort of hawkish tone we did see treasury yields rise substantially and the market didn't do substantially well during the course of jerome paul's talking though it did end stronger than how it started if you take a peek at a 10-year treasury for example we see a substantial move from about 1.5 up to about 1.57 in the 10-year treasury which seems like it's a really big move to the upside but if we do zoom out a little bit to the year to date we can see that this move up here recently is is really a drop in the bucket and there it is it's fully expanded this move here is really a drop in the bucket relative to this trend this is the trend we want to avoid we want to avoid seeing inflation or sort of inflation expectations as measured potentially by 10-year treasury rates by seeing yields on 10 years skyrocket we don't want to see this skyrocketing anymore and we've gone away from this to where we are in this pattern of sort of a descending yield on the 10-year but we have recently seen a spike after jerome powell's talk now again zooming out it's not substantial but the market is reacting to what was said so what exactly was said and do we need to be worried about what was said so first let's talk about inflation exactly everything that was said about inflation so jerome powell told us that we should expect to see elevated inflation measured in their minds by pce over the next few months that's the personal consumption expenditures measure which is kind of like the cpi but anyway that's the one they use now they believe this is because of a rebound in spending and base effects which means we're comparing to last year along with supply bottlenecks now we've heard that before but what's different what's different is jerome powell today for the first time acknowledged that the supply bottlenecks are proving to be larger than expected that is a quote from jerome powell that the supply chain issues are expected to last longer and be larger than expected and those are things that signal more inflation not less at least more inflation for the short term and this is really why i call this sort of real talk is it's finally the fed acknowledging that well yeah we've definitely had higher inflation in the short term than we expected now right now he mentions that it's possible that inflation could continue to be higher than expected but we need to be patient to see exactly what happens these are some things that started to get the market pretty nervous as i watched this live now when he was asked how much longer we can sustain our interest rates essentially at a zero before he would start getting nervous jerome powell went into some more detail he mentioned look we've got to consider lumber prices as a really good example for what might happen with inflation when we consider lumber prices lumber prices in fact we can even pull them up lumber prices we'll see that lumber prices have dramatically shot up over the last year i mean to some cases we've essentially tripled our value in lumber we could have made more money in lumber than we could have in tesla stock if we had invested in lumber this year but anyway take a look at lumber here a massive explosion in prices through this year from essentially a base here around the beginning of november of around 500 to as high as 1607 more than a triple but what we've noticed is this very substantial sort of decline in lumber price uh prices across the board as people who were hoarding lumber start selling this lumber now what's really incredible about this comparison is jerome powell believes that inflation is actually going to follow this trend that right now we're in that level of seeing this massive explosion in inflation and that it's going up and peaking higher than we expected it would but jerome powell believes that it's going to come down much like lumber prices are coming down now and he expects the same to be true with used car prices which currently make up one third of the month-over-month inflation that we're seeing he says that right now we're in this era of a perfect storm of very strong demand and limited supply he mentions it's really easy to turn on the valve of demand but it's really hard to turn on the valve of supply and that's why we have this uncertain timing for when supply and demand will finally actually match up again and he says look there's no calendar for this we just have to wait and focus on the results but he does still expect inflation to be temporary which is obviously something we've heard him talk about many times before he expects it to be higher than expected originally expected but still to be temporary and he believes that the labor market is actually going to help with inflation going down that's because as we see more labor be able to come into the workforce as unemployment wears off and schools open back up and child care becomes more readily available we should see inflationary pressures subside and one phrase that he mentioned regularly even though he didn't want to give us a time frame a phrase that he regularly mentioned was within the next few months and that's not really when i believe he expects inflation to like go way down or to two percent it's when i think he expects to see that big inflection point which is kind of like lumber prices falling now personally i've given a time frame of this that i believe in september and october in that range when we start getting q3 data from companies in october and we start getting new inflationary data after schools have been reopened and unemployment data has been or unemployment pay has rather been cut and removed from the economy i would expect to see inflation data come in much weaker in us to start seeing that rotation to the downside however uh well actually to to reiterate this jerome powell even goes into the level of saying that it's possible this was a quote from him it's possible that inflation could actually end up being quite low we expect these high readings will abate like lumber and the we expect the same to be true for airplane tickets and cars we think that'll happen and the incoming data supports that now in this next segment jerome powell tells us what he believes would be deeply concerning for the market but he also tells us that he believes the unemployment rate will go down to four and a half percent this year and potentially as low as three and a half percent thereafter he does acknowledge that gdp is growing very rapidly revised upwards to seven percent that the market or the economy is doing very well in that sense but that the recovery is very uneven and the biggest concern he has right now is not exactly trying to measure labor force participation because that is hard to measure instead he says what would be troubling would be wide pressures on wages by a meaningful amount broadly now we really have to break this apart to understand this while in some segments we're seeing wages go up for example some entry-level service jobs are offering much more money just to get people hired because there is a worker shortage right now jerome powell says that this kind of wage pressure is not happening throughout the entire economy that really in certain spots we're starting to see people get paid more but this is not broad and consistent across the entire economy and if we did see wage increases throughout the entire economy that would potentially be more of an old-school formula for traditional inflation where when wages go up prices of inputs go up and therefore prices have to go up and as a result inflation measures go up now jerome powell believes in the coming months we will be matched with a very strong labor market and it will come very quickly so much like his inflation expectations where he thinks things are going to be worse in the short term in the longer term he expects things to settle back down pretty rapidly and strongly and so and twice in his presentation he even hinted at the possibility of deflation and maybe even needing to stimulate the economy with more quantitative easing which is absolutely mind-blowing but most of his entire conversation was focused on uh being hawkish on being hey you know things things are a little hotter than we expected this is still in line with our expectations but we've got to adjust a little bit here so you kind of get a little bit of that mixed messaging but we'll come to some conclusions in a moment so john powell was asked about the risks for stagflation and he mentioned that he believes it's unlikely the fact that we're growing at a three percent clip per year in gdp is something that we haven't seen in the recovery from 2008 to 2020 especially after a seven percent growth year so he believes it's highly unlikely that the economy is not going to grow very well to where we would see increasing prices without economic growth he thinks we're definitely going to see a very very strong economy and strong growth which is actually going to help us achieve their two to two and a half percent inflation target in fact and jerome powell mentioned that previously they were concerned that they wouldn't be able to hit their two and a half percent inflation target now jerome powell said it's looking much more likely that we're going to be able to hit our two and two to two and a half percent inflation target remember they're using fate or flexible average inflation targeting now jerome powell did briefly mention that we are clearly seeing an unequal recovery that is disproportionately affecting hispanics and african americans and women who are disproportionately again represented in service or lower end type jobs this supports the belief of really the k-shaped recovery that we're seeing we're wealthier getting wealthier and poorer or getting poorer some of the reasons i wrote down here are look if you're lower income child care much more of an issue who's going to take care of the children schooling it might not be available so again who's going to take care of your children unemployment pay is potentially disincentivizing going back to work i mean quite frankly if you accept just 300 a week in unemployment that's the equivalent of making about seven dollars and fifty cents doing nothing uh and so that has a potential impact though in many cases there are substantial amounts of families who absolutely need the unemployment pay because of various different reasons being unable to find work or their skill sets getting totally shifted around the way i kind of see this is imagine you have like a really organized set of marbles and and the table the marble table is sort of the economy the marbles are the people and their jobs and it's kind of like somebody came in and grabbed all the marbles that were sorted into jobs on the table threw them up into the air and they all landed scattered on the table like you're gonna get some marbles that roll to the edge of the table and need help getting placed and so i personally think there's a benefit and a reason for unemployment but i can also see the the countering arguments here now there's also a coveted risk right there's the fact that blacks and hispanics are much less likely than whites to get the covet vaccine which this is not to say that they are they should or should be required to get a covered vaccine i personally believe that vaccines are a personal choice but these are things that jerome powell is observing as well showing that look we want to make sure that everyone is able to recover and that doesn't mean okay whites are doing good let's go let's raise rates that means no no no we need whites women hispanics black everyone on board the train before we take off and that kind of sends a little bit of a signal of really having more patience this by the way quick note quick side note here is exactly why i'm running for governor in california to institute programs like future schools so that all people can graduate with a skill a career and debt-free at 18.
maybe the united states could take inspiration from that you can learn more about my plan at meetkevin.com but let's talk about longer-term expectations with the federal reserve so long-term jerome powell believes that the numbers that we're seeing now are consistent with the drone powell's goals of getting to two percent inflation and this is actually where we can kind of look at some of their their summary statistics here so let's go ahead and pull some of these charts up so first uh this is what the 10-year treasury looks like this is kind of a reaction to when we have higher inflation expectations this right here there's a lot of fear about inflation coming and right now we're seeing that inflation fear kind of cool and even with today's spike we're really range bound within this sort of declining trend of fear of inflation but we're also seeing and this was a little bit of a shocker we're seeing this right here again this change in gdp estimate which is very good to seven percent from six and a half percent which was the uh prior projection uh in march but take a look at this we are seeing an inflation projection by the end of the year of 3.4 which is substantially higher than the 2.4 percent that was previously projected additionally we're seeing that sort of increase here for core inflation as well we've also seen rate increases being built into 2023 in the overall projections of the fomc projecting members here so these are important things to consider yes they're acknowledging higher inflation right now they still believe in the long-term inflation will rotate down but we've got a lot more folks acknowledging this higher current inflation and you could see that here in the dot plot take a peek at this in march we had four people believe that interest rates would go up in 2022 now we have seven in 2023 in march rather for 2023 we had seven people who believed that interest rates would go up in 2022 now we're at 13 which is a lot which is almost everyone now before i provide more clarity on interest rates because this is a big deal and this affects the market and then we'll get into kind of expectations for the market it's important to introduce today's sponsor which is public.com an investing app where you can buy and sell stocks follow investors and share ideas public is the place to invest and you can follow other users portfolios including people like me and graham i joined public and you can see my portfolio there if you search at meet kevin in the app keep in mind that public does not sell your data or information to third parties or market makers like other investment apps do and keep in mind that if you follow me at meet kevin on the public app you'll be able to see exactly when i make a purchase on public and what i buy so if you go to public.com meet kevin and download the public app you'll be able to get one free stock when you sign up once again that's public.com meet kevin to follow me and receive your free stock the link is also in the description all right folks let's talk about interest rates because this is a very important so right now jerome powell believes that we're going to keep interest rates consistent until we get to maximum employment and inflation is on track to exceed two percent for quote some time now obviously with the dot plots and the projections we do believe that this rate increase is going to happen towards the end of 2022 or the beginning of 2023 this is a shift forward by approximately one quarter since previously we thought it's going to be at least 2023 before we saw a rate increase so even though jerome is saying it's going to take some time we're still seeing and pegging this for the end of 2022.
now john powell did say though the big issue right now for markets isn't exactly rate increases it's asset purchases that asset purchases are what everyone should be very very focused on right now and he was very blunt about this he mentioned not only did the fed have a discussion about tapering asset purchases which basically means less quantitative easing less money being pumped into the market i mentioned not only did they have a discussion about that today but he also said that when the time comes for tapering we will do whatever we can to avoid a market reaction which implies they're going to try to make sure the market doesn't crash and people don't suffer this taper tantrum but he says when we reach our goal we will taper so in other words either way even if the market freaks out we will taper so this is really jerome powell opening the door to tapering is coming we've started talking about it prepare for it don't freak out when it comes now what this also means is that jerome powell is really expecting in the shorter term higher inflation higher inflation than the shorter term maybe higher and more inflation for the long like the medium term but in the longer term jerome powell still believes we're going to hit two percent inflation and he's concerned about deflation in fact you can really see this in the economic projections coming from all of the different members because if you look at the economic projections you can even get a range of what their estimates are and so if you go here these are the tendencies for inflation over the next four years and you can see that some of the members believe inflation could run as high as 3.5 percent by the end of the year but really nobody is estimating that inflation is going to be in that three percent range in 2022 or 2023 and that in the long run we'll be able to achieve this three percent or sorry this two percent goal here uh and so this is really important because you don't see even a single person at the federal reserve suggesting that hyperinflation is a risk so really this this kind of gives us some ideas in terms of what are we to do in the market now in a moment i'll also touch on reverse repos and covid and slr and that but i want to touch on the market first so here's the thing regarding the market what jerome powell today said was actually in my opinion extremely good he finally acknowledged that inflation is here and it's higher than expected in the short term but then he reiterated that if you look under the hood which we have done on this channel and it's why you subscribed to this channel if you look under the hood you actually notice that inflation is mostly being driven by temporary factors used cars airline tickets other things that are temporary related to supply chain disruptions which we've had remember the quote i thought this was very powerful it's easier to turn on demand then it's easier to turn on supply think about it you can send out stimulus checks for people to spend but you can't send out new factories right that's a lot harder to do so in my opinion my investing thesis in in here is reiterated multiple times jerome powell mentioned we should expect a change in the next few months i personally believe that's september to october this is why i'm staying hard on my long positions like tesla tech evs energy and face consumer discretionaries like etsy or amazon or google i'm very bullish on the sector i'm not changing my position to any kind of inflation hedging i know that inflation is higher in the short term we've already known this like we've already been talking about this all we had today is the fed acknowledging it the market got a little spooked that the fed actually spoke to us clearly today but quite frankly i appreciate it because it again reiterates the long-run view and it gives us more insight into the short term that yeah we are going to have higher inflation we're seeing it too we're not blind to it you're right but don't worry in the long run it should still trend down now that doesn't mean you have to believe the fed that's just what they're saying now uh quickly on reverse repos so reverse repos were brought up i did a video on this in regards to momentum stocks and amc there is a belief by many that reverse repo skyrocketing which is basically cash deposits by banks with the fed is somehow hedge funds and institutions depositing a ton of money and therefore leading momentum stocks to uh you know to be maybe the thing where you want to be because this is obviously a sign of distress at the hedge funds the problem is and we did a 20 minute video on this so i'm super condensing here but the problem is we don't have any link that that's what's happening but jerome powell told us what he believes the cause is and he says it's the treasury general account that's shrinking which basically means the treasury is spending money putting it out into the economy which ends up at banks which means banks have more cash so they put money into reverse repos no mention of hedges it's not ruling out that it could be the hedges but there's no mention of that and jerome powell says that look we're buying bonds so it's putting downward pressure on bonds making bonds less attractive meaning banks are holding on to more cash which again means more money is going into the repo market so a drone power really reiterated the video that we made on a sunday explaining what's happening with the repo market additionally jerome powell mentioned that look we've got to keep an eye on kovid it's too early to declare victory especially with the delta variant coming and he also mentioned that they're looking into potential changes for the supplemental leverage ratio because banks are holding so much cash right now that the slr isn't really mattering and that there's a risk that maybe banks could put their cash into more risky assets and maybe there need to be some tweaks here that was pretty granular not super important for us i think broadly but i think the big bottom line here is that jerome powell finally acknowledged inflation he reiterated that it was temporary he wouldn't give us a time frame but he mentioned few months many times he expects coveted vaccination and the ending of unemployment plus the reopening of schools to inflect inflation downwards to bring inflation down though we're having issues again more people retiring we've got hot spots where wages are rising we've got a very unbalanced supply and demand cycle right now he makes it very clear that supply and demand are nowhere near met right now and that's going to take a while before they start meeting in some cases it could actually take years to clean up some of the imbalances so while we should start seeing larger inflection points within the next few months it could take years to get all the supply chain issues ironed out now jerome powell also again acknowledging that inflation will still be higher by the end of the year higher than expected but again longer-term inflation right in line with what the fed believes longer-term expectations being consistent are very important and reiterate my investing thesis of being very bullish on this economic engine taking off and doing very very well especially after q3 earnings i think we've really priced in a lot of the downside risk already of rates going up i think that's already reflected in the pricing we see today this is my take if you found this helpful please consider subscribing and sharing the video if you also like this video and you want to get a free stock courses and the e you
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