저자: Kevin · 외국인
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잭슨홀 이후 파월의 발언은 '유연 평균 물가목표제(FAIT)' 폐기가 아니라 '유연 물가목표제'로의 리브랜딩이며, 이는 인플레가 일시적이라는 입장 복귀로 시장에 우호적이라고 주장. 관세 영향 평균 16~17%로 연준 전망(18.2%)보다 낮아 긴축 완화 여지가 있고, 9월 25bp 인하 확률 83%, 연내 2회 인하가 반영됐다고 설명. 고용 둔화(3개월 평균 3.5만)가 최대 변수이며 고용이 급락하면 경기침체 위험, 회복되면 연착륙으로 강세. 레버리지 ETF·마진 부채 급증을 위험요인으로 지적하고 트레일링 스탑 사용을 권고.
다듬은 글
Well, let's post Jackson Hole. Jackson Hole is over and now a lot of people are freaking out and fighting over what Jerome Powell actually said. Well, here I am to clear it up. First, we need to talk about fate flexible average inflation targeting which is actually becoming bit, but it's basically the same thing without the downside.
And yeah, it's supposed to be confusing. So, if you don't know what any of that just was, don't worry. You can still can.com/life, paid sponsor of the channel. Same insurance I have. Anyway, look, here's the thing. Jerome Powell said that in 2020 they came up with a policy known as flexible average inflation targeting.
What does that mean? is basically a way of saying, hey, I inflation has been really slow the last, you know, decade. So, we really want inflation to be at 2% on average. So, what we're going to do is we're going to say, uh, because inflation, you know, let's say this is the 2% target right here, uh, and we're running at, you know, somewhere around here, 1.75% before co Uh what you have uh there you go on screen so you could see it.
What you have is inflation that's constantly undersshooting and in 2020 before co the Federal Reserve wanted markets to know that the Federal Reserve was actually okay. They were sending a psychological signal saying hey we're okay if we go up up a little bit inflation and keep rates lower. We're actually okay with that because if you average this section and then average this section over here, it all kind of averages out to 2%.
And we're okay with that. That's what the flexible average inflation targeting was of fate back in 2020. Now Jerome Powell made it very clear that this was a big mistake after COVID because fate was really designed which he's told us it was designed for a period of time where inflation was just slightly low.
Fate was not designed to be functional during a time when inflation was skyrocketing like this or actually probably even more. You know going off the chart because we're up here at 9% inflation, right? you can't really average that. So, at that point, we ended up seeing the death of flexible average inflation targeting.
And Pal said, "No, no, no, no. We're not averaging inflation at 9%. It's way higher than where we sit at uh at the 2%." Oops. Let's go ahead and add that back in. It's way higher than that 2% from where we sit. So, if you know we're over here at 9% and we need to get all the way down to 2%. Then obviously what we're going to do is we're just going to hike rates to pressure the market down or to pressure inflation down.
And we're going to make sure everybody knows from an inflation psychology point of view that it is not okay to assume that we will not do everything in our power to get inflation back down. Okay, that's basically the death of flexible average inflation targeting. So, you went from fate. Let's let's write this down to to keep track of this because I understand this is complicated, but it's it's really important to understand this.
You'll see where we're going. Uh oh, man. Come on, buddy. All right. Stupid iPad. There we go. All right. So, we went from fate to no fate. Okay. We we lost fate for a brief period of time there. Okay. What do we have now? Okay. What we have now is basically fit and it's , "Hey, look, because tariffs have been applied in such an abnormal manner where typically, you know, your tariff rate goes like this.
You have tariffs at this level, you apply tariffs and then they sit at that level. That's typically what you have. You have the stairstepper. Instead, what we got was we got this and then we got down on the pause. Then we got a lot of this. It's been a disaster in terms of the tariff application, but tariffs are actually still lower than than what the Federal Reserve had planned on or expected.
See, the Federal Reserve was pricing in a base case of an average of about 18.2% in in trade weighted tariffs. We're averaging out to somewhere between 16 to 17% somewhere in that range. uh and uh this is slightly below what the Federal Reserve has already been pricing in. So they're functionally anticipating or functionally anticipated tariffs to settle around this level even during liberation time.
So what they're saying is hey we're going to be flexible with our targeting of inflation. We're not going to try to average it out. And the reason he's doing that is he wants to say like if if inflation goes up to four or five percent we will absolutely raise rates. We're not going to average out a four and a half% level.
But by being flexible with our targeting around 2% we're not going to overreact to these tariffs which over time will be a one-time price effect. So even though that time span is going to be wider, it's not going to be as quick as tariffs traditionally are uh with their price impact, they will probably end up being transitory.
That's what Powell is telling us. So why does that matter? It matters because Powell is basically telling you, hey, I am willing to back off this fight against tariff inflation for the time being. Why does that matter? because it's bullish for the market. It basically guarantees us a 50 basis point cut.
So you guarantee a 50 or sorry guarantee a 50 bas you guarantee a 25 basis point cut. All right. So you guarantee 25 because Jerome Powell recognizes that the job stat we've gotten of three months in a row of 35ish,000 jobs is bad. So he recognizes we're slightly above where we need to be. And in order to get slightly back down, we're going to go for the 25 basis point cut.
This is why markets are pricing in a 25 basis point cut now within an 83% chance and two cuts by the end of the year are fully priced in. Now what can change all of this? Well, obviously Powell is reacting to dovish jobs data. jobs data that says, "Hey, we need to be careful of the downside risks here to the economy.
What if jobs fully roll over?" That's possible. And in that case, the jobs report that comes out on September 5th could be critical for determining a 50 basis point cut. In my opinion, we're really likely to get a 25. And because we're likely to get a 25 and Kevin Hasset this morning told us that the White House was grateful that Powell's speech was sound, which is the first time we've heard them say something nice about Powell like all year.
It's a sign that Donald Trump is actually probably going to back off the idea of firing Lisa Cook, back off the idea of filing a lawsuit against Jerome Powell. We're going to see less pressure from the White House on the Fed, which means less worries about central bank independence and we could focus a little bit more on things like maybe the 10-year Treasury coming down, which would be great.
10-year Treasury has relaxed a little bit, but we're still at 4.29. So, we're still a little bit on the elevated side. We'd like to see that get under 4%, especially to really boost real estate. Uh, and you'll see that happen if we get a weak jobs report again here. We're expecting an 85,000 payrolls number on September 5th.
Outside of Nvidia this Wednesday, next Friday is your biggest catalyst. So, you know, broadly, in order to be bearish right now, you really have to be betting against Nvidia, which for the last two and a half years has just been a bad trade. This is why this morning in the meet Kevin Alpha report I said I'm leaning bullish over these next days and I actually think we have a buy the dip opportunity and you have an easy choice to go for Friday calls on things like you know potentially Palanteer once we bounce at the 151 level which is exactly what we did uh or we recover on uh the cues which is you know what's happening right now.
So these these are the things that we talk about in the alpha report every morning. But what I'd like to bring your attention to now is I want you to see Robbo Obey because I don't want you to take it just like don't just take my word for this. Okay? It's not just me who's saying this about the flexible average inflation targeting.
Uh it's also Robbo Bank and other institutions. And this is important because there's been so much confusion about what Powell actually said and what he means. So this is where you can see here uh what followed fate was the largest outburst in inflation since the8s. Now again why did that happen? That didn't happen because Powell had fate.
It happened because of massive money printing because of co so obviously fate looks dumb. It looks like it's a bad policy and that's why Powell is slightly redefining what their framework is. They're going from flexible average inflation targeting to just flexible inflation targeting. And you could see that right here where here second they returned to a framework of flexible inflation targeting without the averaging and eliminating the makeup strategy, you know, whatever.
Okay. So, what does this mean? Again, what this means is Powell is willing to go back to calling inflation transitory. Now, I'm somewhat surprised by that as you probably should be as well. Okay. I don't know why it does that. Uh, stand by. Okay. That's very weird. Apparently, I can't add text, but that's okay.
I'll figure it out. I'll just I'll handr write it then. Yeah, it just goes black when I try to do that. Oh, that's quite odd. My iPad's having a little having a bad It's just having a bad day. It's okay. I was just going to write that they're basically here saying that they're back to inflation is transitory.
Okay. Now, that's actually really bullish. So, that's one of the reasons why I'm quite bullish right now uh in the short term on the Fed. So, if you ask me what do I think about the Fed, I think bullish. If you ask me what do I think about the labor market, I think bearish. But I'm really not worried about longer term inflation.
In fact, if you've been watching the channel, and I understand this takes a a unique set of of like context building here, but if you've been watching the channel, I've been very clear that I think inflation will prove to be transitory, but I'm worried that Powell is going to make a mistake. Right? Think about that for a moment.
like try try to put that together. I think inflation is going to be transitory because of you know tariffs or whatever but I think Powell is going to make a mistake thinking that it's not going to be transitory because once bitten twice shy and then he's going to stay too tight. So think about that.
Okay. So we write that down. heaven uh is worried about, you know, Fed equals um second wave uh and then they're too tight and then they end up being too late uh and then we end up with recession, right? That's the concern. But that's not what we got. Okay, that's not what we got. What we actually got was a Powell that said, "You know what?
We're going to have flexibility with this. Not only are we going to have flexibility on this whole second wave worry, what we're going to do is we're going to say, "Hey guys, listen, uh, these tariffs are going to be transitory. It's going to take longer for them to show up, but they'll end up being transitory.
We have to balance the labor market. We had really slow labor market readings over the last 3 months. So, we're going to set up for a 25 BP. So, we get flexible on inflation and we get the 25 setup. Right? This reduces the odds of Powell being too late and it therefore reduces the odds of recession.
Now, does it So, again, this is why this makes Kevin bullish Fed. What's the remaining problem? The only remaining problem is the job market. Will the job market fall off a cliff? If the job market falls off a cliff, okay, so this is this is quite binary, frankly. Uh so one option is cliff. Okay, if we fall off a cliff, it's recession.
It's game over. Uh, you're going to see leveraged ETFs get smoked, margin calls galore, risk assets sell off, the AI bubble pops, valuations collapse, everything goes to hell. This is your fear-monger worstc case freaking scenario. That job market goes, it's not rate cuts that saved the job market anymore.
It's massive money printing. But you can't print enough damn money. Why can't you print enough damn money? Because of AI. AI keeps a boot on the neck of the jobs market for years longer and we end up with a 10-year poopy dupy. It's going to suck big ones. Okay, it's going to suck. Alternatively, this is the best case scenario.
We soft land. Okay, so we end up with really bad jobs data right here. Okay, we call it the tariff job lull. Job lol. Okay, and that's 35k on average for 3 months. We get the tariff low and then we start recovering. We get back to hiring and we get back to 100k on a three-month trend. That right there is the definition of your bullish soft landing.
If we could stick the next 3 months, it's bullish right here. You want that three-month average to get back to 100K. That is the bullish most bullish thing you could pull off right there. Again, a cliff on jobs. There's nothing the Fed could do. we get back on jobs and you've got Powell bringing back flexible inflation targeting.
He's basically bringing it back with different branding. It's like the same clothing but it has different branding because he's just telling you like we're not going to make a stupid mistake and assume inflation is transitory when when inflation is 9%. That's the loss of the average. The reason they took the average out was because they ignored inflation when it was 9% and they realized they'd made a big oopsy dupies.
Okay. So, they got rid of that to rebrand it to make it feel different. But that has created a lot of confusion in this market. A lot of people I mean people have been messaging me, DMing me, emailing me. They're like, "Cad, they got rid of fate." And I'm like, "No, they didn't get rid of fate. They brought fate back.
They just rebranded it. It's bullish." Like, I want to shake you by the shoulders and go, "This is bullish." the Fed. The Fed is finally realizing they don't want to be too late. This is a good thing. Uh it's a great thing actually. That doesn't mean we won't go into a recession because it could already be too late.
Right? So this is where like I'm purposefully saying these things very very clearly because there are a lot of people who who are like wake Kevin I thought you were a bear and we're going to recession. How could you be bullish the Fed? Because there are different parts of a complex economy. I am bullish that the Fed is now doing the right thing and that they will give us 25 and if we get a weak jobs report, we'll get a 50.
If we get a very weak jobs report, we're going to have a big selloff and it's going to suck and you're going to want trailing stop limits. That's what you personally do. If we get a soft like if we get a really bad jobs report, set trailing stop limits to get you out of margin. Please, please, please do not make the mistakes that I have made where you huddle hold on for dear life on margin.
Okay? Now, like it's fine. That was all like a long long time ago. I'm just saying like if you could learn from that, the way to learn from that is have a trailing stop. Okay? It just enough to get you out of margin. It's a good thing. Now, after that, obviously, you could just hold on. I just know if we do go into a recession, it could be a decade.
But that's okay. Like I'm okay with that. Like frankly, so should you. All like the vast majority of the people who watch this channel are between 25 and 45. That's probably like 80% of you. Okay? All of those of you between 25 and 45, you should be like, "You're right, Kevin. Give me a year. Give me a year to go shopping.
Give me a year where I could work hard and buy the dip and grow the portfolio, increase my share exposure, right? Whether it's real estate or stocks or both, doesn't matter. Uh, obviously that sucks. If you're, you know, like in your 70s and you're retired, somebody here on the vertical stream says, uh, they're 62.
What's up? Be nice. Uh, you got a decade, too, right? Like you you could still build that portfolio either way. Like I'm not saying like I wish a recession on on people. I'm just saying if it happens like we're going to make the best of it, right? So, uh, if it doesn't happen and we pull off the soft land here, okay, we got we got a green light to keep buying.
And this is this is why we're doing Kevin's 10 buy list for the next 10 years. And so these shares that I buy will not be sold for at least 10 years. We're on uh stock one, which I'll add more shares to that. We're on stock one out of 10. So, over the next probably 8 weeks, probably on average one a week, you know, some weeks will be none, some weeks will be two.
Uh we'll be adding one to that list in the course member liveream uh and the uh alpha report uh over about, you know, again, probably the next 8 weeks or so. So uh and that's because there is a real possibility that we do end up sticking a soft land here and we don't have to you know be concerned about this falling off a cliff.
The cliff happens just be prepared. The biggest risk on the cliff is not panic selling good companies. It's debt. And think about the debt. Options are a form of debt just because there's a time expiration on them and and you know it moves as quickly as debt. Basically it's technically not a form of debt.
I know. Um leveraged ETFs very dangerous. Uh and then of course um the uh not just leverage ETFs but uh straight up margin margin is at all-time highs. Buy now pay later is at alltime high. Leverage ETFs are at all time high. The amount of leverage in our system right now is insane in the financial markets.
Real estate leverage is actually really low. Like absurdly low real estate leverage right now. a lot of cash purchases. House hack doesn't own a dime owe a dime of bank debt. Uh you know, like absurdly low leverage in real estate. And that actually is really interesting because when we, you know, if we do end up either soft land, this is why I think Warren Buffett's getting exposed to real estate stocks.
If we soft land, it's bullish real estate because rates come down, people can leverage, asset prices go up. If we recession, rates come down rapidly, which is bullish real estate. people can relever uh and it's bullish real estate asset prices. So, you know, I've bu been building this real estate company, you know, for three years now in anticipation of rates coming down.
It's great. Like, we don't care how long it takes because again, we don't have bank. It doesn't matter, but we're patient, but we we it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when rates are coming down. They're coming down. So, uh, anyway, hopefully this adds some real clarity here on the Fed because, uh, I know that there was a lot of confusion and I know that there's a lot of confusion when when people are literally emailing me and they're like, "Can like people will even say like mean things.
They'll say things like, "I thought you were smarter than that." Like, you have to be a jerk to write those words. You know, it's like, hey, you could you could say, hey, I have a difference of opinion. You know, my opinion was that Jerald Pal said this, but then to to go, she got rid of there's no flexible anything anymore.
I thought you were smarter than that. And I'm like, man, who are you? Are you a like a like sometimes I think because this has happened before. I think short sellers, they'll like try to manipulate uh creators points of views to get a creator to say something about the Fed or stock or whatever so they can get out on their puts.
I I honestly think that's sometimes why like you'll even see bot farms on certain stocks come through and it's all just a game to manipulate people to get stocks to move in a certain way in the short term from short sellers. You have to be really careful about that. I always like to be, you know, exceptionally transparent.
Like I don't have any options on on uh individual um uh on on well some options on bonds but but no no individual stocks. Uh and I like to be transparent like if I'm talking about a company I'm going to tell you if I own it. You know like 3 weeks ago I was talking a lot about Axon and I'm like I'm really bullish on this company but I don't own any of the stock and I don't have any options on it.
Like I think it's I think it's really important to just be transparent with folks. Uh and you know that that just increases fairness and and the way it should be. But just be aware like sometimes if you see bot farms in the comments that are getting voted up or whatever, remember this. It costs how much does it cost?
I think it costs is it half a cent or 5 cents? I can't remember. It might be 5 cents. But for a dollar, you could buy 20 hate comments on somebody's YouTube channel for a dollar. If it's 5 cents, I think it is. Uh, and for, you know, imagine imagine how much if you're a hedge fund, you could try to manipulate social media by buying comments for 5 cents or, you know, likes or engagement or whatever.
It's insane. So, um, whole brave new world we're in, I guess, huh? Anyway, hopefully that clears things up about the Federal Reserve. That's a lot of information. Uh, I hope you enjo.
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