The Fed JUST Flipped Housing | -33%

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연준 잭슨홀 발언 이후 9월 25bp 인하 가능성은 열려 있으나 고용 악화 없으면 한 번으로 끝날 수 있다고 봄. 주택시장은 지역별 차이가 큼: 텍사스·플로리다는 공급 과잉으로 가격 하락, 캘리포니아는 공급 부족으로 가격 상승. 금리 인하 시 주택 재융자 붐과 주택 수요 회복을 기대하며, 장기적으로 주택 비용 상승과 공급 부족을 전망. 자사 House Hack 투자 및 강의 홍보 포함.

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01. Today was a big day at Jackson Hole. And in this video, we're going to talk about real estate, especially how prices are tanking in certain parts of the country, including yeah, Palm Springs. And you don't even want to know what's happening in the Palisades. It's bad, but it could be an opportunity.

02. But I want to end this video by telling you that yes, today was Jackson Hole. We basically set up for a 25 basis point cut. Mausalam, who is another member of the Fed, just seconds ago said that quote, "Fed policy is modestly restrictive and yeah, there are labor market risks, but they haven't shown up yet.

03. So, it's like materialized or haven't been realized yet is what they're saying." And so, the next rate cut could actually be followed by a pause. This is kind of a way of them setting up, yeah, maybe we'll get 25 in September, but unless the labor market worsens, we might go 25 one and done. Uh, which, you know, has been a possibility, of course.

04. Uh, and and then Muslim suggests that the jobs report may or may not coming up here be enough to justify a rate cut. So, this was part of my expectations, especially with course members and the alpha report. We had an exact game plan of, hey, we think the week's going to be down between Monday to Thursday.

05. We think Friday could boom, but even if we boom, we really only boom up to September 5th because September 5th is the jobs report, right? And if you want to be part of that alpha report, remember we do have a coupon code Jhole expiring today. Just quick reminder, all eight courses, live streams every day the market is open.

06. You get the alpha report, the fundamental analysis, my 10 stocks to buy for the next 10 years list. We we're on number one. Okay. So, we do the fundamental analysis together and then we make a buy. Very simple. Uh, so if you want to be part of that along with, you know, you could potentially write the course off, the property management courses, you get the sales courses, the tax benefit courses, all of it.

07. Meet Kevin.com. It's really simple. You pay once, you're in for life. Otherwise, the price will just go up again. And with all this inflation, well, what can you say? Why Warren Buffett is going nuts for real estate right now, increasing his exposure to Dr. Horton, Lenar, uh, increasing his exposure to pool, betting on a refinance boom.

08. Here's Glenn Calman, the CEO of Red Fin, now owned by Rocket Mortgage. This like Glenn's right, balanced market, except, you know, the overbuilt areas. He said it himself, Texas and Florida, uh, and some of the Sunb Belt states this year that may happen next year. Sooner or later, rates are going to come down a little bit, but already seeing a meaningful improvement in the housing market.

09. And I think I've been on this show every month for the past 5 10 years. This is the best news we've had in two or three years. The market is getting a little bit better. It could be more, but we'll take it. This is what Buffett is seeing. Buffett's POV basically, and in my opinion, why his 13F filings show this increased exposure to real estate is once tariff inflation settles down, interest rates come down, recession or not.

10. If you have a recession, rates plummet, rates come down, you get a refinancing boom, people build pools, people renovate, people spend, the housing market goes from in some markets, well, many markets balanced to potentially boom again. The risk factor you have is the overbuilt areas. Just as more natural disasters hit the state of Florida, the cost of owning a home now has three factors.

11. It's not just the rate and the home price. It's also how much you're paying for insurance. And that is making people there really hesitant about buying a home and it's softening the market just a little bit. Yeah. Okay. Thank you for joining us. Always good to get insurance costs have been skyrocketing in in Florida.

12. Part of not just because of hurricanes, but also I mean look at what's happened to the condo market in Florida when you had the building collapse uh in in South Florida. uh HOA and insurance costs have skyrocketed because some of these are just 1970s60s apartment buildings and their foundations are just not up to snuff with today's standards.

13. It's it's a really big issue. Uh, so Redfin CEO here got on the show, started by talking about how we had a lot of inventory pile up over the summer. And while inventory growth is still present, that growth is slowing. So, we're still seeing more inventory, but it's growing at a slower pace. Let's go ahead and take a look at what we have.

14. So, we're going to go look nationwide. Median sales prices are up in 2025, up about 2%. I like using week supply. You could see week supply of inventory is at the highest level of the last 3 years, which actually gives you choice when it comes to buying, which is great. Median days on the market, also above all of the individual areas.

15. Now, if you go to areas that, you know, you we we've got experience in like places like Dallas or Florida, we we don't buy in. Uh this you've seen an overbuild to where the median sales price in Dallas, for example, is actually the lowest of the last four years, down 3% year-over-year. here. If you jump into Tampa, Florida, as another example, you're a little bit more mid-range here.

16. So, somewhat flat growth over here. Uh let's go to Austin, Texas, where we build a lot. Something to know. Yeah, you're at the lower end here. Something to know that's very different about buying in Austin is you generally have to evaluate, does it make sense to just basically take the building to the studs and rebuild it?

17. uh when you have a fixer upper versus does it make sense to renovate? That's a kind of question that you typically don't have to make uh in areas like what you get in California. In California, there's generally no question of like, oh, are we going to rebuild or are we going to uh renovate? The answer is always renovate.

18. And so what you could see is uh even though you've got a little bit of a relaxation here in June, you could see median sales prices are still higher than all of the previous 3 years in Los Angeles. If you type in San Diego, for example, you see the home prices are the highest they've been in the last what 3 4 years here.

19. So it's exactly the opposite of Texas and Florida. It's the same thing that's happening over and over again. Uh now totally reasonable because California has a massive lack of supply and limited property taxes and limited opportunities to build. We're actually with House Hack building some ADUs. I'll have to make a video on it.

20. But Lowe's made a really good point the other day in their earnings call which I think is worth considering if you're looking at the housing market. Lowe's was talking about this uh let's see here. They said here, I've got it right here so you could actually see it. At the same time, we estimate we need 18 million new homes by 2033.

21. Together, these trends point to a healthy pipeline of demand for home improvement and new construction ahead. That might be what Warren Buffett is seeing as well, is that new construction margins get to stay high if we constantly have a housing shortage. This is why House Hack is also developing. So, we're developing homes for people to live in and fixing up properties that people can't live in.

22. So, we think we're providing a really good service by adding rental inventory to markets at a time where it's really hard for people to buy homes. But what you'll notice is we only add about 1.6 million homes per month in America. And by 2033, Lowe's estimates that we need 18 million more homes. That leaves you with a shortage of 5.2 million homes as a shortage by 2033, which means housing prices are unfortunately likely to continue to get more unaffordable, especially in areas where people want to live where it's hard to build.

23. Unfortunately, in California, it's hard to build, but that just squeezes prices up. As usual, the Democratic policies just give you a hedge for your real estate investment and values go up because they are too incompetent to realize that we need simpler building regulations and we need to make it easier to build.

24. When you go to Texas, ironically, that's where you see home prices falling in Florida because it is easier to build. So, you're able to add the supply the market is looking for. Lowe's though here also sites $50 billion of deferred home improvement project demand due to high home equity but high interest rates.

25. This creates some really interesting opportunities for the home financing sector which house hacks also looking at though it's really low on our priority list right now. Priorities right now are wedge deals developing accessory dwelling units or even homes. Uh and then of course our artificial intelligence play.

26. You can learn more obviously about Houseack over at houseack.com. But uh quick note, we've had just in the last 48 hours some additional breakthroughs in the AI that we plan to start licensing hopefully within the next few months. Uh to where we're thinking about getting on prem like H100s or Blackwells.

27. Uh so we're we're pretty excited like we we we can't wait to show you you know what's coming for House Hack. Uh keep in mind if you wanted to invest in House Hack, you could do so. It's open to nonacredit investors. You could go to house hack.com, read the solicitation paperwork there. The video can't be a solicitation, but uh you get a 5% yield.

28. So, it's kind of like having money market while at the same time getting uh 100% of the upside in the stock. Uh the earliest conversion on that is 2027. Uh and then you get all the upside in the stock. And the only way you can convert is if the valuation of the company uh continues to rise, which is very exciting.

29. So, we're we're we're stoked about that. I think we're in a great place and and it's a great time. And so, this is why I'm so excited because I feel like we've been building this company and and these plans for three years and started buying in 23, you know, got a lot of plans uh presently as well and growing our asset base.

30. But when you combine this what with what Buffett's doing with what Lowe's is saying with what you're seeing from the CEO of Redfin where they're saying, "Hey, we're seeing a slowdown of inventory growth and a balanced market." It to me, he's kind of right. This is the first time that he's enthusiastic going on CNBC saying, "Hey, you know, a little bit of a pairing of interest rates could be a really great thing for our housing market." Which is great.

31. Uh see there's this reference by Lowe's of this housing lock in the pressured consumer. Uh and that housing lockin expires as rates come down right and so there are obviously big opportunities in mortgage companies as well uh you know once we actually start getting to the refinancing world. So very very exciting.

32. Uh so uh let's see here. Somebody some of y'all in the chat say Texas over Florida. Somebody says no property taxes coming to Texas Florida. Both of those areas have much higher property taxes than California. That's for sure. But that's because you don't have a state income tax. So, let's see here.

33. Isn't higher credit fee now a big block to buy new homes? Higher credit fees. You mean financing fees? Um, you know, I I haven't seen that as a big issue or roadblock. I think what you mean are the higher interest rate costs and because a lot of the higher interest rate costs are sort of your loan fees are actually being subsidized by builders right now because builder margins are so high they can afford to buy down your interest rate and upgrade your flooring and your countertops and everything whatever just to get you to buy it and they still make a pretty penny on the build because home prices have just come up so high which is really uh you know exciting.

34. So let's see here. Let's see. Let's see. Let's see here. Any thoughts about the West Palm Beach area? Mara Lago. Nobody knows Mara Lago and West Palm Beach better than I do. Uh so yeah, like obviously, you know, there there are a lot of concerns that people have about just the general affordability of housing and that's the problem.

35. And I have to say this is where you know when we look at housing data and we see what's happening in the housing market we are of the mindset that unfortunately over time the housing market is going to continue to get more and more unaffordable for people which is bad because it's going to leave people behind.

36. This is why I'm such an advocate of don't be a renter. Own where you live. Never sell it. keep it and keep growing because if you're not on the ride of owning real estate, it's going to get increasingly more difficult to get on the ride. And that's really what it is. It's a ride. You know, we've got new lectures, by the way, coming out in the do-it-yourself property management and rental renovations course.

37. Uh because, you know, design change designs for real estate change over time. for example, uh you know, brown uh black bronze hardware was really in for a period of time or millennial gray flooring was really in for a period of time. Gray kitchen cabinets were in for a period of time. All three of those are no longer in.

38. And these design trends and making sure that when you're renovating real estate, you're doing so in a way that's going to be neutral for the long term and valuable for the long term is critical. Obviously, you know, we've got a Meet Kevin membership coupon code expiration tomorrow for Jackson Hole. You get all the eight courses and all the updates.

39. So, if I add lectures, you know, when I do uh to the Trumpomics course on tax benefits, mind you, you could probably write off this course as well. Talk to your CPA or I add lectures to the property management course. It doesn't cost you any extra. You you get that. You get the alpha report. You see the insights on what house hack is doing uh and more.

40. Uh it's pretty exciting. So overall, I'd say if I have to look at the real estate market right now, uh there there's probably an opportunity to take advantage of where rates still are right now being high because once they start coming down, you might end up inducing a little bit of a boom in real estate again, which could be good because it could actually be supportive of GDP.

41. If tariffs really start hitting consumers more and consu the consumer side of the equation slows down for GDP, hopefully real estate investment growth can actually keep uh GDP up and and and keep the markets going. Uh so we'll see. Uh so yeah, angry German accent please. Nine kind twitch. Uh anyway, all right.

42. So that gives you a little bit of um real estate update. I want I'll see if there's any you know sometimes the Red Fin data sometimes they have a news section you could look at as well. Remember Red Fin was just acquired by Rocket Mortgage and Mr. Cooper gets acquired by them as well. Uh also interesting look at this.

43. This is a very interesting one. Home purchases getting cancelled at record rates probably because of where rates sit right now. 15% of homes fell through last month. highest uh highest July record on rate. This is actually great if you're a buyer because it means there's so much stress out there with other buyers.

44. If you're actually a legitimate buyer and you can you can make it, you could get better deals, you know, because other people are flaking out. Look at this. Not a surprise. Cancellations are most common in Texas and Florida. No surprise. Houseack has zero exposure to homes in Texas or Florida. We actually heavily investigated real estate in 2023 in Texas or Florida.

45. And what we observed was a market that was turning. So it to me it wasn't like some prediction that came true. We saw it happening and it was just a matter of time before everybody else would start talking about Texas or Florida problems. Now everybody's talking about problems in Texas or Florida. Well, now people are going to miss the boat in my opinion on on getting into the dip.

46. That's my take. But, uh, this is based on Redmond's analysis of pending home sales data. The data is seasonal, which is why we compare blah blah blah. Higher home prices, higher rates, economic uncertainty. Home purchasers are more likely to fall through in Texas and Florida. San Antonio, 730 purchase agreements canceled in July equal to 22% uh, of the market.

47. You know, I was just in San Antonio, by the way, and uh well, actually, I went to Dallas. Uh then I went to Austin, then I went to San Antonio. I uh you know, shout out, by the way, to the course member that met me at the Alamo. That was really cool. Uh but u I I have I have problems when I have like childhood memories of a place.

48. So, uh you know, I have a little haul here. I got uh I got remember the Alamo, a puzzle I'll be doing with the kids. But yeah, I was in San Antonio. San Antonio is great. Uh I got uh I got this big uh remember the Alamo comfy looking blanket. Let's uh let's open it up. So I don't know how a real estate, you know, topic is uh all of a sudden turning into merchandise hall, but it's cuz we're talking about San Antonio, you know.

49. Have you has anybody ever been to Schlitabon? Uh, San Antonio also has Schlitaban, which is apparently now owned by Six Flags. Uh, San Antonio was a very German uh, merchant town, even during the times of the Alamo. That might be upside down. I don't know if it is, but anyway, nice big uh, oh yeah, it's upside down.

50. Alamo blanket over here. So, big fan of uh, remember the Alamo? You know, two Germans died there. And then I even got, you know, in classic Texas style chocolate ammunition because, you know, why not? Standard issue. Yeah, I got a bunch of mugs, too. But, uh, I don't want to unwrap all these mugs cuz that's just what I do when I go places.

51. I just buy mugs. But anyway, San Antonio equal to 22.7% of homes that went under contract last month. highest percentage among metros uh that Redfin analyzed. So that's so interesting. You know, my dad took me to San Antonio when I was seven years old. We drove from South Florida cuz I grew up in South Florida.

52. You might not know that I grew up in South Florida. We drove from South Florida. Uh Fort Lauderdale, dude. I I grew up in South Florida in in for in the Fort Lauderdale area. Weston, Davey, Aventura, all those areas. Bounced around Plantation. We drove from there to Texas. It took like 20 something hours.

53. It was insane. And uh we were setting up for a trade show. So we had to bring like I don't know kitchen stuff or whatever when I was 7 and a half years old. And we went to the Alamo. And I'm like, "Dad, it's it's my turn to take you back to San Antonio." So anyway, Red Fin. So wow. Next came Fort Lauderdale, Florida, 21%, then Jacksonville, then Atlanta, then Tampa.

54. Wow. all that area. Home prices were least likely to fall through in Wow, look at that. You've got Seattle on the list. New York, Pennsylvania, so like Northeast over here. Wow. Biggest drops and cancellations. Sacramento, uh, Philly, Phoenix, Phoenix. Another one. Orlando. Actually, one of the problems with Orlando is you had this big like Airbnb boom.

55. Uh, and and I actually don't know that the Airbnb bust is over yet. You you have a lot of um, you know, people who really got heavy into Airbnbs. And you look at markets like Palm Springs. I mean, people are trying to dump homes uh, in Palm Springs and uh, in a lot of these Airbnb markets. Palm Springs, California.

56. Let's just go take a look at, you know, what's for sale over there. I mean, yeah, look at this. This is Palm Springs. This is an insane amount of inventory over here. $30,000 price cut over here. $132 days on the market. $125,000. Dude, who cuts the price aundred? A foreclosure. What? Dude, this is these are the bubble markets.

57. You got to be careful of the Airbnb markets, too. Foreclosure. Who cuts the price $125,000 on an $825,000 project? Holy smokes. What do they Oh, for them to be a foreclosure. Now, let's look at the history of this. So, they bought the property in 2022 during the bubble, the like the Airbnb bubble. You have to real estate.

58. You should know this. It's really market dependent. This is what we also say when we're studying and expanding our AI service for, you know, which we're going to be licensing first to course members who are in the uh uh in the alpha report. Uh you know, they're going to get the first dibs of the beta, which will be really cool.

59. But, you know, real estate is really local. Uh you have to know which street matters and which market is doing what. uh an Airbnb market, things could look like a deal, but if prices are falling, you have to be really cautious. So, here are folks who bought for $950,000. They probably spent a buttload of money renovating.

60. Then they tried selling it in 2023 for $1.1 million. Couldn't sell it down to $9.99, now down to $8.24, under what they paid for it. So, from they're at 8.25 25 divided by 1.1 million. 825 divided by 111 million is a 25% price cut. That's an example of a bubble that's burst. It's very different from, you know, everyday real estate in in highquality areas of California.

61. But, uh, Palm Springs is definitely a market that you got to be careful of. This is why Orlando's been another one of those. Uh, and you could see, I mean, it looks like they plowed money into this. These are expensive cabinets. That backsplash costs a fortune. Sparkly white countertops, not a big deal.

62. Concrete floor like this, very expensive, honestly. Like, it's probably you're probably going to get to a point where you could start at some point buy the dip on these. Uh I don't know, though, because it's such an Airbnb market. You know, I don't I don't know how desirable it is, but a $30,000 price cut over here.

63. Uh geez, man. It's there's there's no shortage of fully remodeled homes out here. $20,000 price cut. It seems like in the even in the 600k range,