저자: Kevin · 외국인
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시장 공포(코로나 2.0·델타변이, 인플레이션, 2022년 비교기저, 실적·밸류에이션 우려)로 기술·성장주와 리커버리주가 동반 하락. 지금은 저가매수보다 지지선 이탈을 기다리는 전략이며, 현금 비중을 최대로 늘리고 9~11월 CPI·가이던스 확인 후 대응 예정. 최근 상승한 모멘텀주는 리스크가 크다고 경고.
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the 40 off coupon code on the program's link down below expires on the 22nd and the price goes up on the 23rd no extensions this time let's get into the content bitcoin is down under 31 000 the dow jones industrial is down at the moment 882 points the s p is down two percent the nasdaq down one point three eight percent gold is down one point one four percent wti oil crude is down seven point four five percent everything is just feeling like it's on fire today and just for reference since i did do percentages for everything else the dow is down about two and a half percent which is a good chunk for the dow so what is happening in the market right now and what are some strategies in this market all right let's talk about this so first thing first two things we've got this double up of fear in the market right now we've got a lot of fear and uncertainty which remember to think back whenever we had massive fear in the past in just the recent past that we might remember more recently massive fear march of 2020 obviously beginning of covet 1.0 massive fear around the uh election right before the election that second half of october was a very very fearful period of time and it's in these moments of fear just like what we saw in may the middle of may may 12th to may 14th it's in these moments of fear that we can sometimes see stocks sell off substantially and well below where some of their fair values could be and that creates some really neat buy the dip buying opportunities the problem is right now valuations across the board at least the stocks that i'm looking at still feel relatively high see when we look at some of our lows that we saw in may we're still substantially above some of those levels at least in the stocks that i'm tracking right now so i've got a different strategy which we're going to talk about that strategy in just a moment but for giggles let's take a look at the stock charts first of all here in case you're wondering why for example the dow is selling off so much it's all of them together or selling off almost in unison especially the larger cap companies like the microsoft's the apple the nike the ibm procter gamble walmart so on and so forth let's go ahead and jump on over to the sticks here and consider let's go to a company like end face and so end face today is down about a half percent and if we jump in over to uh the day chart we're going to see that we're still doing pretty well above where we were in may in fact we've got a line that we've drawn here at about 154 155 you can see we're just now pulling back to our support line and dipping below is going to start getting us a little bit closer to those may levels but we got as low as 120 108 at one point the same was true at companies like etsy where in may we had the substantial dip so you can see right here may was pretty painful we traded sideways for a while we had a little bit of a run going into july and since we've kind of been selling off again that as low as 153 on etsy let's uh take a look at another one let's look at apple here for example so apple in may didn't hit the lows that we had over in march but it was relatively low as well we were right around that 120 level pretty range bounded apple for a while and since we've been soaring with the exception of today where we've got some red candling we're down about three percent on apple right now and consistently with the especially within the growth sector we're seeing that may was either the low or the second low following march here you've got also a second low following march 191 and over here you were sitting at about 192 as a low on square so this march and may dip time frame pretty similar in some of the growth spaces and this is important to know especially when we look at risk assets like even spax for example that we had our lower prices in may because while we're rotating back into that direction know that it was just two months ago that we had very very low prices at our higher risk stocks those are going to be our tech stocks and our spac stocks our higher valuation stocks our sas stocks software service stocks right take a look at this you got that sort of double dip here again that march may low in tesla let's go look at snowflake just as an example see you've got in this case you've got the may low is significantly lower than the march low but just for recency sake i just like referring my pricing to what was pricing like in may i did a lot of buying in may right around the big dip there was a lot of pain in the markets and so when i'm seeing this dip right here i'm not really that jazzed to buy this dip in growth now every sector is different and this is really important to remember when it comes to stocks when you see a dip it does not necessarily mean it is a buying opportunity now i understand i'm wearing the rocket to the moon shirt and on the back of this shirt it says buy the dip but folks this is not exactly the dip that i want to buy when we're still above the support levels i want to be shopping when we break below some of our support levels especially if we could break below a channel like we have right here on neo those are really good opportunities to wait for in my opinion now sometimes those just never come right and you're sitting around waiting for a a low like maybe you've had previously and you just never get to some of the previous slows that you've had but personally these dips right now i'm not jumping up and down about buying i'm just not super excited about them however i do have a strategy for this market which we're going to talk about and we're going to separate that again into growth and specs and higher valuation companies but then also recovery stocks so let's go look at some recovery stocks recovery stocks stocks we've been watching really sell off since the beginning of may now they didn't exactly follow the same pattern as growth and speculative in fact rather than crashing in march they actually peaked in march and that's one of the crazy reasons why the s p 500 did so well over these periods of time was because even though tech was crashing the s p was still going up it's because recovery was booming through february and march but then recovery flattened at the same time as roughly tech tried getting out of the hole so to speak and so you kept seeing the s p 500 go up right but we've seen this downward trend for almost all of the recovery stocks since may in other words we really hit peak pricing in may and now we're starting to get concerned about real growth for these companies a lot of the recovery companies are still high in debt they're struggling to get enough workers back yeah they're busy but they're busy in part because they don't have enough employees to properly service everyone so you have what are known as false weights that is it feels like you have to wait a long time to get a seat at a restaurant or to get on a plane but that's partially due to not having enough staff not solely because of uh having too much demand although don't get me wrong restaurants have been obviously way busier than they have been in the prior really 12 months we have had this explosive reopening but just know it's not all because of more demand it's also because of a lack of the ability for these service companies you know restaurants having waiters or planes having airline staff or whatever being able to actually service all the customers they have this is why we're seeing people pay with their time instead of paying with their money but anyway this is leading to the fear that we're actually going to see earnings come back or earnings draw the valuations of these companies back to normalcy and this is why i'm also not buying the dip on the recovery stocks in fact you can see for example on cheesecake here i drew this line here in in june and i'm like ah we're on a not so good downtrend right now now that or the rate of that growth downwards has somewhat slowed but it looks like we're getting ready to meet that rate of decline again not growth decline uh let's go ahead and go to some of the other ones like let's go to american airlines and maybe we'll look at spirit but you could see consistently we're we're somewhere around uh the middle of may kind of as tech was was bottoming middle of may to beginning of june you're seeing a top and it's been straight down let's go to dal for delta airlines same thing folks maybe slightly different peaks see maybe dal peaked in april but overall the trend is very very similar you get this high at the middle to end of may and then a rotation straight down from there let's go to norwegian for example uh norwegian cruise lines nc nc there we go nclh okay perfect so there you go similar pattern again the sideways trading from march to june and then the plummet the sell-off uh simon property group i mean you can go to almost all of them simon property group didn't peak until the first week of june though and then let's go to macy's let's try i'll just put in m there we go we know the ticker's m so may as well macy's actually out of all of them probably doing the best uh because we've we've really probably peaked i mean you could say we peaked over here in march but sort of had the second peak over here and towards the end of june and only recently been selling off but the point is recovery is starting to trend down and it's because of the fear of not only are we actually going to get earnings that were we've now built into these stock valuations but it doesn't help the fact that now you've got all this talk about coveted 2.0 the delta variant and concerns that oh no oh no i hope i don't fall because valuations are high at which which we're not in my opinion earnings from these companies are not even going to help us prop up the high valuations we already have for some of these recovery stocks on top of that now you got kova 2.0 it's just a recipe for disaster for these so why then is the s p selling off well it's finally selling off because you have both tech and higher valuation and sas businesses selling off at the same time as you have some of these recovery stocks selling off now why would you have tech selling off at the same time as you have recovery selling off wouldn't it be one or the other not necessarily that's because we have a lot of fear in our market right now one of the fears is covid another fear is are we actually going to be able to hit the valuations we're going to be able to justify these valuations which valuations are very very high that specifically targets recoveries but valuations are also somewhat high over at tech then you've got to consider this you're going to have comps next year 2022 that are going to look back at a very strong beginning to 2021 and the clumps just are not going to look good you could actually see negative growth which you don't really want to say deflation for but you can see negative growth or a decline in sales at businesses like apple or maybe peloton or some of these other businesses we've already seen website traffic data start slowing down substantially for peloton now peloton is moving to the upside today partially because of a motley fool pump but also because well if people are fearful potentially of covet 2.0 where do people generally put their money wow it's no surprise etsy wayfair upwork doordash peloton moderna like hello it's the same thing that happened with covet 1.0 so that's one of the reasons the green stocks that you're seeing green are green i mean even draftkings hey people sports betting from home right it makes sense personally i believe this rotation to covet 2.0 stocks is a little overblown i think the bigger reason why and i want to clarify that okay because i had to clarify that on my live stream too i don't mean to say that the delta variant is overblown that's not what i'm saying i'm saying this rotation to oh well let's all go run into peloton i think that's a that's a false start i i think it's inappropriate right now i think we're going into a less stimulative economy where people are going to be more frugal we're seeing peloton is able to to ship these bikes much faster than they previously have before they're advertising how quickly they can get these out the door they're at under two week wait times for bikes now sure they acquired pre-core back in april but i don't think they've retooled those facilities yet to manufacture bikes faster that would be very very fast retooling so there's still a lot of work to do so personally i think this this excitement here for cova 2.0 uh in in some of these stay-at-home stocks is a little premature i think it's a sign that the market is so uncertain it really has no clue what it's doing and look i'm just a dude on youtube i could literally also have no clue what i'm doing but i i at least i'm going to make and stake my flag so to speak and make an opinion and give you a conclusion and my conclusion is that the market is so fearful about this missing earnings uh justifying valuations the missing comps from for 2022 compared to 2021 right that's three different things right here plus on top of that inflation fears are we going to have inflation are we not going to have inflation plus on top of that covert 2.0 so that's literally five pieces of bad ugly dirty uncertain pieces of news right here all five of those things when we look at those five things we're like what's gonna happen with those five things we're like i have no idea right so that explains why the vix volatility index is through the roof today it's literally up 30 percent and if you zoom out here on the week chart we have more fear more volatility right now than we did in may which is crazy because we had some pretty rock bottom prices at least for tech and growth in may okay so you understand now there is a lot of uncertainty i also want to make this very very clear that i personally just because people are like kevin are you changing your mind again no i try i want to make it very very clear i take all of the new information i try to process it as best as i can and then i align it with my expectations for the market i still believe by september october cpi data releases so between september and november when we get that data we are going to see a market that has a lot more answers to these questions we're going to have better guidance we're going to have better idea as to what website analytic data is like what is guidance going to start looking like for the beginning of 2022 have people really pulled back on spending are they still spending like crazy was the reopening trade temporary or not are valuations being justified or not will there be more stimulus or not a lot of these answers we will get towards the september october november period especially will we see inflation inflect down like we expect it to or at least half of us expect or are we going to see it inflect up like the other half of us expect so we're going to get so much more clarity in september to november we are going to be able to in my opinion really enjoy a nicer market in in september and october now unfortunately i've been saying september october november since february and it's been a crappy last five months i totally get it absolutely get it it sucks but the point is we got to make a decision and understand what the heck is happening in the market so how do we trade first it's very important to know that momentum-based assets uh with the in my opinion with the exception of like gme and amc even though those are momentum based assets they can be propped up by hodlers a lot more because they're sort of the og momentum plays right but otherwise momentum place like a new egg or a big digital or which big digital is probably more trading off of um bitcoin's price action here i wouldn't necessarily call it momentum but like uh whether it's emrin or uh you know matt uh torchlight whatever right some of the more recent momentum plays these are going to be your highest risk plays and sure they have the potential for big rewards but they also have the potential for big losses so you want to keep that in mind in my opinion now is not the time for mega mega risk it's not the time for call options unless you're doing something like a straddle so let me explain that so something that i did this morning is i actually sold a stock that was running i sold just over 300 000 of a stock that was running i sent an alert to everyone in my group that here's why i'm selling it we talked about why i'm selling it this morning in the live stream and when i closed that position out i also looked for other opportunities maybe where could i buy the dip one of the things i did is i sold a put a 20 23 put on a particular stock and then i also bought a 2023 call on the same stock so i've got a straddle on that i'm using the credit from my sold put to buy myself a call so that way in the event the darn thing runs to the moon at least i've got the upside with the call but if it ends up trading sideways i milk the credit and i've kind of hedged that portfolio that trade a little bit which makes me feel a lot better since i've already got other sold put positions on that trade now that's a very simple quick and dirty explanation of straddles i could do a lot better job in a dedicated standalone video but i want to get some bottom lines to you in these periods of uncertainty i'm not looking to buy the dip unless we get to levels where all of a sudden i'm pretty dang juiced up looking at the market going oh my gosh those are some really good prices like docusign under 200 lemonade under 60.
end phase under 115. etsy around 150 140 apple at 115 you know amazon maybe under 3 200 again or something of that effect or google when are we ever gonna have a sell-off at google again right these are the kinds of things that i'm looking for and so that that is a strategy for me i will expose myself to sold puts on some things where i could farm big old credits uh and those are going to usually be specs is where i can get some good sold put positions because worst case if i have to buy them i'm able to buy them pretty cheaply i'm comfortable buying them at cheaper prices best case scenario quite frankly it just goes up a little bit i don't end up getting assigned i keep the credit i make money during a sideways trading market and i'm happy either way so uh big big big sort of ultimate bottom line though still saving cash as much cash as i can the more cash i can save up the more of an opportunity i'm going to have to go big when we get the real dips no margin right now i'm actually more in cash than i've ever been so just think some things to keep in mind these are my thoughts on the market does expire in three days and folks we'll see in the next one thanks bye
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